Sometimes Everybody Plays the Waiver Wire Fool

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

No pressure, I've already dropped you from my 5x5 Standard Mixed League.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

So trending back to fantasy baseball- let's talk about early season reactionaries.  Every league has a guy who sprints to the waiver wire after a guy like Alejandro De Aza hits 2 bombs on opening day.  In the 2 leagues we're in we've already seen the likes of Jason Grilli, Jared Cosart and Stephen Vogt picked up after one day of games played.  One day. Now, no fantasy sports player can get overly critical of this move. Sometimes everybody players the waiver wire fool, no exception to the rule.  That said, what is, if any, the right approach to early season reactions?  To use a personal example I picked up Chris Davis about 3 days before the 2013 season started simply because he was still there, he then went on to hit 50 bombs. I also was lucky enough to grab Edwin Encarnacion in his breakout season.  However, for every Edwin, there is a Jack Cust.  This is particularly detrimental in leagues that limit transactions. In a fantasy hockey league I gambled on picking up San Jose Sharks goalie Alex Skalock in the first week of the season.  he was eventually relegated to back up duties and late in the season when I had a hunch on Andrew Hammond, affectionately known as "The Hamburgler", I was unable to pick him up as I had hit my transaction limits.  he went on to set an NHL record for consecutive wins for a goalie in his first starts, and vaulted the Ottawa Senators into playoff contention. And the guy who got Hammond?  Won the league.

So a few questions arise- how do you gauge who to pick up and how long do you wait?  Do you go with the "dance with the girl that brung ya" philosophy early on and see how your team takes shape, or do you approach your team as a moldable work in progress than can only be perfected by tinkering? Fantasy baseball and fantasy hockey offer long seasons, generally deep free agent pools and multiple stat categories from which to pull. Fantasy football is more random and determined by the draft.  Ask Fantasy Football owners who lost Tom Brady week 1 of 2008 how that went.  Though of course there are exceptions.  Anyone who grabbed CJ Anderson likely went into the playoffs.  

Uncle Bones

Ah yes, the early season fantasy gold rush. Forever immortalized by the waiver wire movement of one Emilo Bonifacio. In my opinion there are really 3 different types of waiver wire moves:

1. The Hot Name: This is EMILO's!!! wheel house. This a move that happens at 11:00 at night on Opening Day. Now at first blush I get the enthusiasm. Opening Day is great. You've invested months thinking about baseball and weeks pondering the fantasy baseball roster you've built only to have it all come to a head on one single day. Except, that the baseball season is only .006 % over. That's it. One game represents less than one percentage point of the entire season. So just because Alejandro De Aza hits 2 HR's or EMILO!!! hits 2 triples or Kyle Kendrick's lifeless corpse wasn't dumped into Lake Michigan doesn't mean that you fly to the waiver wire for the next big thing. It's a long season, and like you pointed out this approach can quickly burn up your waiver budget. Especially when you consider that most of these players will be back on the waiver wire by the end of April.

2. Just Lucky: I believe that your Chris Davis move falls into this category. Davis was a post hype prospect at that point and no one expected much. He probably went undrafted in most leagues, but you had a spot to fill and he was there. Same for Encarnacion. He was a decent player in Cincy, but nothing like what we think of him now. Must be something in that Canadian water... Speaking of Canada, I had a similar stroke of luck with the Ragin' Canajun Erik Bedard back in 2007. I scooped him up on the waiver wire a week before the season started. He went on to strike out 221 that season and lead that particular league in scoring for pitchers. He was never that good again, but for one fleeting moment, greatness. I also had similar luck with in an in-season grab for Carlos Gonzalez in 2011. In that case I was just looking to upgrade from Torii Hunter and CarGo's floor represented Hunter's ceiling. I rode to the penthouse with Gonzalez that year only to be stuck wallowing in the basement for several years to come as I continued to count on his greatness.

3. Scouting, Patience & Dedication: This is the most difficult route to using the waiver wire. It is so difficult because of the waiver wire moves 1 & 2. You can have a guy on your radar since spring training, keep tabs on him as he gets called up, starts seeing regular AB's, finally seems poised for a break-out and WHAM! Billy's Baseballers read his name on Scott White's Start'em/Sit'em and snatches him up. Not to mention how hard it is to keep tabs on all the fringe players of all 30 teams. I can go into Triple-A and a little Double-A depth for the Red Sox and Triple-A for the Twins, but for everybody else? Bitch, please. There's only so much time in the day. On top of that, you can only follow a name for so long before you get jumped.

There is however one owner in one of our leagues who is a waiver wire master. He doesn't always know which teams are NL or AL and he doesn't know who any of the "hot" prospects are. He's also been routinely criticized for his draft picks, team names, and chat room banter, but he wins more than anybody else. His secret? All he does is look at numbers. He doesn't know the names. I'm not sure he even knows the teams half the time, but he when he uses the waiver wire it works. Can you guess who it is?

Josh

Erik Bedard in the mid 00s was like Guns N Roses around Appetite for Destruction.  Heralded, hyped, dangerous, beloved.  Then, it all came crashing down rather spectacularly and quickly.  Maybe he can try to resurrect his career as a Knuckleballer and go for a Chinese Democracy type of thing

Sure, we all know that owner you're describing.  There's something to be said for a cold, by the numbers approach.  It removes emotion from the process.  We all know the owners who reach for guys who are on their favorite teams.  Sammy Watkins went in the 3rd round of a fantasy football draft I was in last year.  Third.  Round.  Mind boggling.  Sticking to the numbers avoids stuff like that.  However, an owner who isn't keeping up on the story beyond the numbers is ultimately damaging himself.  For example, had you taken that approach with Adam Wainwright this year, would you not have spent close to $35 for him in an auction league?  Paying for last years stats while ignoring what other data about aging pitchers tells us?  This same approach sparked the infamous "Jake Arrieta over Cabrera and Stanton pick" that we discussed a few posts back.  The guy wanted pitching so he took it, regardless of what the other numbers about the value of hitters say.  When we talk about "all he does is look at numbers" it's highly dependent on what numbers he or she is looking at.  

Interesting confluence of ideas here- I am going to the Pawtucket Red Sox/Buffalo Bisons game next week.  I am quite excited to see Rusney Castillo and Blake Swihart live, and possibly Henry Owens or Bryan Johnson if the matchups align.  How does one handle in person viewings of prospects, or major league players, and balance them with stats?  How does one keep expectations in line from both a fantasy and real life perspective?  If Castillo hits 3 bombs, am I going to be TOO excited?  We all know about small sample sizes, but we're human beings and emotion factors in. It would be hard to shake watching a 3 HR performance.  As Maya Angelou once said "People will forget what you said. People will forget what you did. But people will never forget how you made them feel."  

I'd like to think that's the first time Maya Angelou has been quoted in a fantasy baseball blog. 

Uncle Bones

A more talented writer than you or I may be able to create an entire baseball blog using Maya Angelou quotes and references. I think I would call it "I know why the caged bird is way off base" and it would likely tread such a fine line of racial and cultural appropriateness that mortal men would find too exhausting for recreational work. So instead we can relish in the quote, feel smart for a minute, and then get back to infantile task at hand...

As much as I'd love to get into a "3 Kinds of People You Find At a Minor League Baseball Game" diatribe, I'll focus on the experience more specific to your point. For your situation, understanding the narrative of the organization and the season is crucial to the enjoyment of the experience. With that being said, its very important to understand that you are watching one game of a very long season between players who have a wider variance in talent than you might find at the major league level. In other words anything can and will happen and it probably doesn't mean squat.

One example (and there are many) that best illustrates this point is the 2013 that Chris "Return of the Mack" Colabello spent at Triple-A Rochester. That season Colabello hit .352 with an OPS of 1.066 to go along with 24 HR's and 76 RBI's in 391 PA's. He also took home the hardware for International League MVP. It was a nice story and he helped the Red Wings make the playoffs (coincidentally where I also saw Clay Buchholz pitch on a rehab assignment). Any one who saw that season would have thought that Colabello was on track for big things, except that he was 29 that season and it was his first year at Triple-A after kicking around independent ball for 8 YEARS. He did take down the Emilo Bonifiacio Award for Early Season Excellence in 2014, but has struggled so much that he got a hero's welcome when he returned to Rochester later that same season.

Other things that you might see at a minor league baseball game:

Trevor Bauer giving up 6 runs in 2 IP

Daniel Bard walking 5 straight batters

Phil Humber throwing a 1 hit complete game shut-out

Will Middlebrooks smacking line drives all over the field

Sal Fasano's spectacular mustache

Grady Sizemore going 0-4

A 19 year old Bryce Harper being booed by a Tuesday in April crowd of roughly 1,500

6 pitcher combing for a no-hitter that started on May 8th & ended on July 21st

A player in your starting fantasy baseball roster that you had no idea had been sent to the minors

My advice, separate what you know about baseball from what secret you hope to discover for fantasy baseball. Your understanding of the narrative will greatly enhance your viewing experience  because you will understand who you are watching and why. However, to try and glean a competitive edge in a fantasy baseball league from 4 AB's or 6 IP's against competition of questionable quality? You'll make yourself crazy. You'll trick yourself into seeing things that aren't there. And probably worst of all, you'll miss out on the enjoyment of watching players today that will be all but unaccessible by as soon as even the end of the summer.

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.3

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

I think on a very direct player for player, in a vacuum style of evaluation, the Dodgers won this trade.  The 2 big prizes for the Sox in that trade, Webster and De La Rosa, were turned into Wade Miley, a guy expected to be a serviceable #4 and nothing else.  A Gon is in the heart of the Dodgers order and a huge key to their success.  However, things don't exist in a vacuum and the Sox won this trade in the big picture purely for the financial relief it gave them. The Carl Crawford signing was a black eye on the Theo Epstein era, it was as if The Eagles decided to end their career on a salsa covers album.  Despite all the amazing things they accomplished, recency effect is a real thing and people only remember the beginnings and ends of things.  This trade got the team out from under the majority of that contract.  As much as all Sox fans love Josh beckett for 2007, his surly attitude only works when he's pitching well. He had worn out his welcome in Boston.  The biggest benefit of this trade was of course the financial bailout that came with it, the scale of which we haven't seen since the financial crisis. With the Dodgers playing the role of the federal government,the money saved allowed the Sox to go on a unique spending spree, one of value and volume, that lead to the 2013 World Series....and then finishing last place in 2014.  The Ben Cherington era has been all or nothing so far, and this year it appears as if he's going all in on the "all" part again.  

Uncle Bones

In the end it would seem to me that the "Great Dodgers-Red Sox Swap of 2012" was one of those odd baseball trades where every one was a winner, but for different reasons. It shows how much the financial aspects of the game are as much of a factor when it comes to roster building and player movement as the actual talent of the player. Basketball has it to a certain extent, but now have a system in place for bailing out owners and GM's who lose their minds on contracts. I'm sure hockey has something... I mean the shut down the whole sport because ownership thought players were making too much... And the NFL, my God. Those players make peanuts compared to what baseball players make, can be cut at a moments notice AND football the most profitable sport in America.

But none of that in baseball. You sign a contract and that money is guaranteed and you typically stay on a roster until the contract is over (although sometimes a team will each money for a year). Thats one of the things that makes the Red Sox current approach to roster building so fascinating. They clearly have a plan and they are sticking to it.

Without rehashing the Red Sox moves of the last the years I'm gonna hone in on the recently announced Rick Porcello deal. Understanding this whole deal starts with Jon Lester around this time last year when he had turned down what seemed to be a low ball offer from the Sox for something around 4yrs/$70 mil. I believe that Red Sox when they say that this was just a starting number, but I also don't blame Lester's team for tabling the whole thing. He knew he'd make way more money than that and even if he blew his arm out on Opening Day, the Sox would still likely sign him for that.

So on it went, with the Sox falling out of contention and ultimately dealing an age 30 Lester to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes who I also believe that the Red Sox were interested in retaining (at the right price). I also think that they were curious in feeling out Cespedes with the impending bidding wars for other Cuban players like Rusney Castillo, Yosmany Thomas, and Yoan Moncada on the horizon. They had just missed out on sensation Jose Abreu and they didn't want to be left holding the bag again. Then by the offseason w/ Ramirez and Castillo in the fold, Betts on the horizon, and Victorino still kicking about, the Red Sox traded Cespedes for Rick Porcello. Porcello who has great peripheral numbers and who thrives with a great defense behind him. Porcello who will be 26 this season with the kind of easy delivery that typically avoids the DL.

The Red Sox then gave Porcello the same money they wanted to give Lester except now they are paying for all of his years up to age 30 instead of all of the years after 30. And while that seems like a shocking number at first, watch what Jordan Zimmermann (30 in 2016), Johnny Cueto (30 in 2016), Ian Kennedy (31 in 2016), Jeff Samardzija (31 in 2016), David Price (30 in 2016), Mat Latos (28 in 2016) get next off season. The list is huge, I could go on. The Red Sox already have 3 rotation spots locked up for next year (assuming they pick up Buchholz's option and that Joe Kelly isn't starting next year; either way) with atleast 2-3 pitchers at Triple A who could fill the void. Or they could take a short term plunge on any of the starting FA's who miss out next year's on bonanza.

The Yankees have no such options. They are already down one starting pitcher, the 35 year old Chris Capuano, are stuck with a broken CC Sabathia, and a more than likely TJ bound Tanaka. Then again they've got Pineda & Nova, 2 pitchers under 30 who have yet to pitch a whole season. Oh and Nate Evoldi who might want to just sign baseball's before he throws them as they could make great collector's items as they fly over the right field wall at Yankees stadium. They are going to have to sign at least one or two of the marquee pitching FA's if they are serious about contending and they will probably pay sticker only to be left to 2 broken down 35 year old pitchers 5 years from now.

Josh

All valid points.  The Yanks have been in "should have rebuilt" mode for a few years, and now are definitely in that mode. That is not a fanbase that is necessarily comfortable in a rebuild.

ICYMI

Part 1

Part 2

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.2

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Uncle Bones

To me, saying that baseball should have LESS playoff teams because you want to see the 2 teams with the best record in the World Series is kinda like arguing that gay marriage should be illegal because being attracted to a person of the same sex might be contagious and that the science is still out on that one because no one has done the research yet. In other words, its absurd. Its also like saying that there are too many billboards at the stadiums as if teams shouldn't be trying to maximize their returns at every opportunity.

Let me remind you and anyone who might read this that the MLB season is 162 games long with each team playing 81 home games. Its not easy work getting butts in those seats and eyes on those games day in day out. Going to a baseball game is not an inexpensive proposition and sitting through 162 3 1/2-4 hour baseball games on TV is no treat either, ESPECIALLY when you are watching a team that is either not competitive or not competitive enough so for a shot at the post season.

This is compounded when you think about how regional of a sport baseball is. Yes, the Yankees, Red Sox, and to an extent the Braves have done a great job at expanding their national appeal, but very few people outside of Houston are Astros fans. Same goes for the Royals, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, etc. The longer into the season fans of these teams are able to stay engaged in their team the better. Not only is it the best thing for business, but its the best things for the fans relationships with those teams.

Our defending American League Champion Kansas City Royals are a prime example of this. Before our time the Royals were often considered the AAAA team for the New York Yankees as so much of their talent wound up in NY before it had a chance to win in Kansas City. Then they held on to players in the '80's (when baseball put in ALCS & NLCS) and won, but then in our lifetime we say the same thing happen again. Carlos Betran, Johnny Damon, Zack Grienke, the list goes on, shipped out of town because the Royals didn't want to spend the money on players when they weren't going to compete. Then what happened in 2014? Bolstered by a trade that brought in Major League talent, the Royals hung in it all the way to end, got hot in the playoffs and the rest his history. If there was not 2 Wild Card spots and maybe only 2 teams from each league made the team then Shields would have been dealt and the Royals would have been rebuilding again.

More playoff spots means more teams in contention, more eyes on the product and more fans maintaining an interest year after year. Seems like a smart strategy for a sport that has an average fan base the sits right around the mid 50's. But here's a question for you. Right now MLB has 5-ish playoff spot per league. Too many to some, but still much less than the NBA or NHL and only 1 less that the NFL. How many playoff teams is too man? Sure long term fan engagement is great, but how excited are most fans when their team locks down the 8-seed in the NBA? I tend to follow a lot of Boston media and some folks are wondering whats up with the Celtics approaching the 8-seed in the East. I know the Celts are rebuilding, but is it that bad that the team might be ahead of its time frame? And does sending half of the conferences' team to the playoffs cheapen the whole experience?

Josh

As a lifelong hockey fan, I can say throwing 16 teams in the playoff mix is nothing short of awesome. It differs from the NBA in the sense that low seeds regularly have a chance. Bottom seeds have made it to the cup, and won it. But hockey is different, they've had multiple teams come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the playoffs.  Remember when the Red Sox did that it was a huge story, but it actually has happened in hockey enough to the point where it's a fun story, not a monumental one.  

That said, the length of baseball games doesn't lend itself to more playoff games.  I love a good 5 hour late october slog as much as any baseball stalwart, but that doesnt play to the casual fan. Plus when your team is in the playoffs, it's a different vibe sport to sport.  Overtime hockey is, in my opinion, the only thing that matches the anxiety, dread, and excitement  of late inning playoff baseball. Baseball's "slowness" just lends itself to heightened wonder and anxious pacing in the playoffs.  The "slow" moments are building up to one moment where everything can change (Cue Don Henley's "in a new york munute...oohh we wooo...) If the Red Sox had to play MORE games in October, do you really think you could stomach that?  Probably, but you might have some explaining to do when you walk into work the next day wearing one shoe and 3 day scruff going.  

In regards to your Shields comment, did the pundits who bashed the Royals for that trade ever double back on their words?  Or did they just slink away like the guy who starts a fight and lets his friends finish it?  The whole argument against it was the years of control of Wil Myers.....who the Rays recently traded. That trade proved to me that snap judgments on organizational moves are good for sound bites and tweet headlines in the 24 news cycle, but they take years to play out and truly evaluate.  

Uncle Bones

The fact that baseball has only had 1 team to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series says two things. One of which being that there just haven't been nearly the same number of playoff series that hockey and basketball have seen. And two, the difference between good teams and good enough teams is probably pretty wide.

Now imagine if 8 teams from BOTH the National League and the American League made the playoffs in 2014. How excited are you right now thinking about a 5 game series between the Angels and the Yankees and the Nationals and the Mets. That's right, both NY teams would have made the playoffs as 8 cedes and both teams would have gotten snuffed out like a spider in a day care. And if that's not bad enough consider that the 7 & 8 cedes in the NL both would have had a 79-83 record. All that to add another week and a half to a season that already ends in early November. Eck...

I do think its funny that you brought up having a rooting interest in October baseball. I remember in September of 2013 as the Red Sox marched towards the playoffs thinking about how my life was about to change in ways I wasn't prepared for in the next month. Sure enough, there I was arguing with strangers about the proper application of runner interference & texting you to discuss the Sox bullpen situation while at my wife's birthday dinner. October baseball does things to me and not all of them are good.

As far as grading trades go, talking heads gotta make noise (its why they're there), but its impossible to grade a trade when it happens, 24 hours after it happens, a whole year after it happens. Baseball is the ultimate long game. Its one of the reasons why advance stats took hold here first. There are a lot of games and players can spend a lot of time in an organization. So while its tempting, and some times necessary (if its your job) to pass judgement on a single transaction moments after it happens everyone knows you're just talking to be heard.

Now for fun, almost 3 years later tell me who won this trade:

Red Sox acquire Allen Webster, Ruby De La Rosa, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Jerry Sands & James Loney

Dodgers acquire Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett & Nick Punto

Red Sox also sent $12 million. 

Who won? 

Part 3 

ICYM pt.1

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.1

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

Do we dare submit our predictions and succumb to the pressures of clickbait, newsworthiness and timeliness?  I say yes!  Who are we to flout the conventions of blogging.  here are my mildly unscientific predictions

AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Indians

NL West: Mariners

AL Wildcard game LA Angels over Chicago White Sox

NL East: Nationals

NL Central: Pirates

NL West:  Dodgers

NL Wildcards:  Marlins over Padres

ALCS- Red Sox over Mariners

NLCS- Nationals over Marlins

World Series-  Nationals over Red Sox in 6

AL ROY- Carlos Rodon

NL ROY- Kris Bryant

AL Cy Young-  Felix Hernandez

NL Cy Young- Jordan Zimmermann 

AL MVP:  Mike Trout

NL MVP:  Giancarlo Stanton 

Yes I realize picking against Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young is enough to warrant Lucy from the Peanuts "5 cents for Psychiatry" type of help, but he has to slow down sooner or later right? Zimmermann is the Joe Walsh of the Nationals staff, and Strasburg and Scherzer are Don Henley and Glenn Frey.  Sure Fry and Henley were the principals, but you don't have Hotel California without Walsh's solo.  

Uncle Bones

The true function of the internet is not to expose people to new ideas that they didn't know existed, its provide the content that reinforces the beliefs and interests that they already had. Oh and cat videos. Since no one writes any comments, clicks are the only feedback available. And we love feedback.

AL East - Baltimore Orioles

Rotation solid with sufficient young upside and the offense should be good enough to feast on a division of average to poor pitching.

AL Central - Chicago White Sox

Top 3 starters known commodities & will mix and match the rest. O unbalanced, but the top of the lineup will carry that team.

AL West - Seattle Mariners

Its an easy bandwagon to get on when you consider the questions that surround the rest of the division.

AL WC1 - Boston Red Sox

Line-up will mash, but back end of rotation will be in flux all year.

AL WC2 - Cleveland Indians

Only because a one game playoff between Francona and Farrell is what we as baseball fans deserve.

NL East - Washington Nationals

I mean, come on.

NL Central - Pittsburgh Pirates

This team does to many things right to mucking around that Wild Card spot forever.

NL West- LA Dodgers

This team will still get it done despite Don Mattingly.

NL WC1 - St. Louis Cardinals

I can never count them out.

NL WC2 - San Diego Padres

I think the edge the Cubs on Karma. Padres are clearly all in, Cubs are too reliant on young players.

AL WC Game - Red Sox

Not that Farrell deserves it more than Tito, they'll just hit and hit and hit...

NL WC Game - Cardinals

Been there, done that.

ALDS - White Sox v. Orioles

White Sox - Top 3 starters too much in a 5 game series

ALDS - Mariners v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I know pitching wins championships, but after Felix who do you really count on in that rotation? Plus Red Sox will be a wrecking crew by then.

NLDS - Pirates v. Dodgers

Pirates - Mattingly finally does them in.

NLDS - Nationals v. Cardinals

Nationals - Too much pitching. Too much offense.

ALCS - White Sox v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I like the White Sox, but I don't like them that much.

NLCS - Nationals v. Pirates

Nationals - As smart and tough as the Pirates are that Nats are just overwhelming

World Series - Nationals v. Red Sox

This is where the Red Sox starting rotation minus a huge move or 2 will be undone. A healthy Nats team can hang offensively and the pitching is just that much better.

The Washington Nationals as your World Series Champions!

AL ROY: Rusney Castillo (Betts used up his eligibility last season)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL MVP: Mike Trout

NL ROY: Joc Pedersen

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

I read your picks this morning and then went about my day so as to intentionally forget what you had written. I was amused to go back and see that we both had the Nats over the Red Sox in the World Series. Its like, "Yep, we're homers, but we're not that big of homers".

One take away that I had from this whole exercise was really thinking long and hard about the AL Central and coming away not liking any of the teams all that much. So much can go wrong for the Tigers and so much has to go right for the Tribe. The White Sox are really unbalanced and we didn't even mention the AL Camp Royals or red headed stepchild Twins. That division will be interesting and I wouldn't be shocked if the team that wins it only does it with 88 wins.

Now all we need is a title about naked celebrities and our attempt at click bate will be complete.

Josh

I had a tough time NOT picking the Cardinals for the NL Central.  Somehow they get it together every year, and a big piece in their lineup in Matt Carpenter is probably due for a bounce back, as is Wacha.  I know in September we'll be watching them close a 5 game gap in like 12 games and be sitting here saying "I told you so" as the pundits pontificate about how the Cardinals pump their fists on home runs THE RIGHT WAY and Normal Rockwell makes a painting about it

Can we talk about the random nature of the baseball playoffs for a minute?  After reading our predictions I realized that by the time we actually get to October, someone like the Reds will be on a run that no one saw coming, Felix Hernandez will be out for the year, and the A's will have traded half their roster.  We've seen wild cards win the past few years.  Ultimately the best team during the season isn't really rewarded for anything, and all it takes is a team getting hot at the right time.  I have no personal problem with this as it keeps fan bases engaged longer, but I've heard some lament that they'd rather see the truly best teams in the world series.  I don't know, isn't randomness what makes sports kinda fun?  

Part 2

Mike Napoli hasn't had a dream In 8 years

Well no shit, he hasn't slept

This is a real story and here's the proof: 

Mike Napoli Has Been Having Hilarious Dreams Since Sleep Apnea Surgery

by: Ricky Doyle (Huh, a "Ricky Doyle" writing about sports in Boston. I never would'a imagined...)

In case you couldn't be bothered to read Mr. Doyle's blurb I'll sum it up in the remaining two sentences of this paragraph. Boston Red Sox 1B Mike Napoli spent the last 8 years sleeping so poorly that he wasn't unable to dream. This offseason he had surgery correct sleep apnea and now he dreams again.

When this story peaked my interest I ran to my best friend on the internet and found out a few things. One of those things is the fact that Mike Napoli is 6 months younger than I am. I've always sort of loosely followed his career from back when he seemed like a catcher with some offensive potential that Mike Scioscia just plain didn't like (Scioscia is particular about his catchers). He was then traded to Toronto, who promptly flipped him to Texas where he had some good seasons and then signed as a free agent with Boston. At that point catching was in the rearview mirror and Napoli became the Red Sox full time first baseman. That much I already knew, but what I also learned on my fact finding mission was how good of a hitter Mike Napoli has always been. His career OPS+ over nine years is 126. He's lost some games to being a catcher, a few injuries and work load concerns, but Napoli has been a 26% better than average hitter at a time when offense is being oppressed. The guy can hit and he's a pretty darn good defensive 1B.

The part of this story that I find the most curious has to do with our very similar ages. I more or less know what sorts of changes you go through from your 20's to your 30's. Mental, physical, mood to keep it brief. I honestly can't imagine how hard all of that would have been to go through while not sleeping at all. Without being able to shut down enough to let your brain fix itself. I cringe thinking about it. I'm sure anybody with sleep apnea knows even better, but the fact remains: you gotta sleep. 

Even Napoli himself said his life was so miserable last year that he considered retiring. I don't know about you, but I've never seen a picture of the guy looking like he'd didn't enjoy his job. So it must have been bad.

As much as I'd like to write a fiction series on Mike Napoli's new dreams... (I'm leaving that one in there. Don't nobody steal it) I'm just going to keep it focused on real world implications. With Napoli entering his age 33 season we are likely seeing the end his "peak", but its certainly possible he could keep up his current pace. He's an athletic guy with a career .359 OBP who strikes out a bunch, but still manages 20 or so HR's and as many RBI's as you'll put in front of him. His BA is a lottery ticket. As long as he stays healthy, Napoli should age pretty gracefully as a ball player. 

Then again, he may still have 1 or 2 "peak" years left in him. And for the first time in his career he can sleep. I've spent a considerable part of my adult years figuring out how to get a good night's sleep and once I got it, what a difference it made. At one point in my early 20's I went like 2 or 3 years without dreaming. It was hell. Now I dream, and I've never felt better or more productive. There's no reason that Napoli can't have a big time boost now he's finally able to dream about himself as a hockey player who lives at Costco and exclusively eats cereal like the rest of us sleepers.

That's why this year I'm betting on Mike Napoli. The guy can hit. He's always been able to, but he hasn't always been able to sleep in the way that improves his life. This year will be the first year in Mike Napoli's career that he's been able to dream after a game. That will mean something.

Baseball's a Helluva Drug

92? I didn't know they had D-linemen in baseball...

Like many Northeast baseball fans I found myself searching through the AtBat app looking for what Spring Training games might be available the first two days. Whether its this awful winter or my new obsession with Ken Giles and the Philly's bullpen I am Jonesin' for some baseball. And the strange thing is, I'm not the only one.

Take a look at some of the attendance numbers from the first Friday of Spring Training baseball:

Grapefruit League:

Twins at Rays - 4,148

Nationals at Braves - 5,936

Yankees and Phillies - 7,365

Tigers at Mets - 7,444

Marlins at Red Sox - 9,830

Cactus League: 

Rockies at Angels - 5,739

Giants at Rangers - 7,497

Reds at Cubs - 15,331

That's right. Over 15,000 people showed up to see Jon Lester throw 2 innings. The only "Baby Cub" to even make an appearance was Javier Baez. Unless you count Mike Olt and no one does.

Now, these might seem like meh numbers to a lot of people considering that the smallest parks in MLB hold around 37k and most parks draw at least 20k plus a night. But having spent a lot of time around a AAA team (Where many of the players who played today will wind up this season) I can tell you that crowds around and over 10k in the right sized ballpark are nothing to sneeze at. In fact you can really get a stadium rocking with those kinds of numbers and quite honestly you only get them on the weekends in the summer.

So what gives? Why are these Spring Training games so popular? It could be price. In a quick glance at ticket prices for these early games seem to be going for anywhere between $10-$40. Which might seem like a bargain at MLB prices, but exceeds anything that you would pay for a minor league game (once again where the vast majority of these players will wind up). 

Another possibility might be that Spring Training is played in baseball starved areas. I might buy that reason for the Grapefruit league in Florida if the Rays and Marlins weren't already within easy driving distance (especially considering that everyone in Florida drives 105 mph everywhere). Also laying low that argument is the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 average attendance was just under 18k per home game. That tells me that central Florida (home to the Grapefruit League) isn't baseball starved, its baseball indifferent. Now I understand that there are other factors that go into the Rays' poor attendance: their field is a converted convention center, I've read its in kind of a bad location, Florida is America's armpit (just repeating what I've heard), blah, blah, blah. But way more that 18k people turned out to see MLB players for a couple of innings and then minor league players for the rest on Friday. Why can't those people turn out for the Rays who have been a highly entertaining team to watch for the better part of a decade?

And don't even get me started in the Cactus League. The Diamond Backs play in downtown Phoenix and every Cactus League team has a facility nearby. I'll admit that I don't understand the American Southwest all that well (It's hotter than Satan's ass crack & there's no water. THERE'S NO WATER), but I do know what highways look like and if any of these facilities are more than an hour away from downtown Phoenix then feel free to take to internet and label me a moron. That town ain't baseball starved. That's all I'm trying to get at. So why on Earth did 15k people show up to a Spring Training game?

So as I sifted through possible explanations two commonalities remained on my screen. You know what Florida and Arizona both have a lot of? Old people. And you know who really likes baseball? Yep, old people. Who has lots of free time to take in an afternoon baseball game on a weekday? You guessed it, old people.

It seems so obvious now. But what does it really mean? Is it like other Spring Training stats and completely meaningless? Or is there more to it?

That MLB has the oldest fan base all the 4 major sports seems sort of odd considering how baseball is probably the best suited sport for the internet age. Its perfect for Twitter because there is plenty of time between action to fire off a snarky tweet about an awkward Ryan Howard swing or 2nd guessing a managers in game decision from a thousand miles away. Baseball has also been probably one of the more discussed sports in America and more words have been published than could ever be read. It was also the first sport to truly embrace advanced metrics and the internet has been amazing at spreading that gospel.

Unfortunately, young people tend to trend as stupid. I was young once, I know. Baseball is a game that requires patience and perspective. Something that your average teenager cannot even define let alone practice. Baseball is something that you love as a child, neglect as a teen (chasing booze, drugs, & tail are WAY more fun), and rediscover as an adult. And that's OK. You can't properly appreciate watching a player mature through his career until you have lived enough life to know that nothing lasts forever.

So numbers may tell us that the average baseball fan is trending older, but it might not be the canary in the coal mine some think it is. Games are on awfully late for children. Teenagers don't care about anything. In your 20-40's you're building a family, career, etc., but it seems like in your golden years, the game starts to make a little bit more sense. Like clockwork its there damn near every day for the better part of 8 months and its just plain fun to watch a child grow into an adult within the confines of an artificial environment. And when your forced to endure those long, harsh winters trying to rationalize to yourself why following the NFL is still OK or planning on which NBA team to follow next, you start to miss the stability that baseball provides.

My advice, just lean in to it. Enjoy being a child those first few weeks of Spring Training leading all the way up to opening day. After that its OK, if you miss some April & May games. Things start coming together in June and by July you'll know what you've got on your hands. By then you can settle in for August & September just in time for the Post Season. That's when the game really gets interesting.

YOAN!!!!!!!!!

As far as "Hot Takes" go this one will be the hottest.

Cuba has long been America's estranged cousin. We kind of know where they are, but our only contact is some funny Facebook post that they put up every once and a while, but they never respond to any of our messages. We worry about them. We want them back in the family, but we know its going to change everything.

News flew across the internet and the baseball world that the next "Cuban Big Thing" Yoan Moncada has signed with the Boston Red Sox. Early reports have the deal in the $30+ mil range with of course a 100% tax on the end for exceeding the allotment for foreign born players, blah, blah, blah. Bottom line is the Red Sox signed a 19 year old with a tremendous upside and a position TBD for around $60-$70mil. Not too shabby I guess, but then again not my money. So, spend away!!!

The sad part is that it likely marks the high water mark for the fun that has been watching the market for Cuban baseball players. The quantity of high level talent left on the island that is on the cusp of being MLB ready has to be winding down. Other players will come of course, but it won't be the same. With the impending changes in the US-Cuban relationships the whole way that MLB scouts and signs these players is going to change.

There will no longer be these mystery players with grainy game footage, private workouts, and YouTube cookouts. Gone will be the days of discounting Cuban talent because they face pitchers or hitters in their league that wouldn't make it onto a D3 school. However, there will also be no more Jose Fernandez stories of riding a rickety boat to a better life. Also gone will be the stories of players owing smugglers money after they arrive. The Cuban national team will not have worry going to international competitions and coming back with only part of their team. So it won't all be bad.

But be sure, now is the time to enjoy the Yoan Moncada/Cuban Player hysteria while it lasts. Draft him early in all of your fantasy leagues. Be willing to not be outbid in your auctions. Never mind that he has no path to a position right now in the Red Sox organization. Forget the fact that he is likely to open at AA and probably won't get to the Majors this year in any meaningful way. This is not the time time for a level headed approach. Now is the time to react. Give in to the madness, let it bask over you as if its the first time in months that you have seen the sun, because its about to go away forever.

Also, let me know how it goes. There will be haters for this approach. There always is. But you'll be right. Its not about winning this time. Its about enjoying one last ride on the Cuban Mystery Machine...

Reconciling The Closer

John Franco "The Closer"

If you are the kind of Fantasy Baseball owner who believes that Roto is the only way to go and that H2H players should just stick with Fantasy Football, this post is not for you. You're still welcome to read it and I hope that you do. You may even find some parts with which you agree. However, its written from a very H2H point of view. So, if you're mature enough to handle it without getting all judgmental join us for the ride. Otherwise, come on back a little later...

I had a friend in college that we nicknamed "The Closer". One of the reasons he drew that name was because he mistakenly aligned himself with a blood thirsty pack of hyaenas who got worked into a frenzy over the smallest hint of weakness. Oh, and also he routinely blew sure things.

Just about every "Closer" story went down the same way. Whether it was a food or beer run or late night with a particularly soused trollop, each time "The Closer" came into the picture he managed to mangle even the surest of things. What's worse is that he would cop to things he didn't even have to just to further cement the validity of the nickname. It got to point where it just made no sense at all.

Counting on "The Closer" to come through in any sort of way felt like watching a Sunday Night Baseball game when you're up by 1.5 pts in Head to Head and the only active player left in the match-up is your closer. You're just sitting there helplessly rooting against a narrow set of possible outcomes because you don't want to have to watch your guy go out there and do his job because if he fails you fail. And God forbid they trot him out without their even being in opportunity for a Save. Only bad things will happen.

Tell me how many other positions in all of fantasy sports are like this? None. No other position can swing from +8pts to -8pts in the course of one single play. Only the Closer can do that. Even the Kicker, the Goddamn dumbest position in Fantasy Football can't do that. Kicker misses a 21 yard kick down by 2 as time expires? Meh, no points for you. Better luck next time champ. But if a closer misses his spot by an inch, up by 1 with 1 on and 2 out? Buh-bye. You'd been better off his herpes flared up before the game and he was a scratch.

Take a moment to think back on your Fantasy Baseball history and try to remember a time when you were super pumped about a Closer you had on any one of you teams. Go ahead. I'll be here when your done...

Yeah, that's what I thought. Maybe you remember a time when one of your Closers had like a 45pt week, but you can't remember who it was can you? Then again, I'll bet you can tell me about the time a KRod meltdown cost you a playoff spot back in 2009. I can tell you all about how keeping Jonathan Broxton in 2010 was an absolute waste of a keeper spot, but I can't even tell you who any of my Closers were in the last 3 Fantasy Baseball seasons.

Those are some of the day to day problems with Closers. The other issue is that probably half of the teams in MLB have a closer situation that is in a perpetual state of flux. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox are remembered in part by the insane dominance of their closer Koji Uehara. Its easy to forget that Koji was signed only as a bullpen depth option that offseason and that Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, and even Junichi Tazawa got a crack at the role before injuries or ineffectiveness put the ball in Koji's hand in the 9th. Let me repeat, a team that won the World Series did so with their 4th closing option who ultimately had a stretch as dominant as any in baseball history.

So, please forgive me if I can't even be bothered to hide my seething contempt for Closers or Relief Pitchers when it comes to Fantasy Baseball (I'm sure many of them are very nice people in real life). All they ever do break your heart, get hurt, and force you to spend so much time on the waiver wire that your boss wants to know why you're always on you computer but never getting any work done. Despite all that, every season we go through the same challenge of trying to figure out which Closer we're going to curse out on a bi-monthly basis.

For me, I approach planning to fill my Relief Pitcher spot on my Fantasy Baseball team a lot like how I approach building my entire Fantasy Football team. Don't stress it, don't target certain players, and don't get caught up in the run. That Closer you reached for in your March draft might well wind up on mop up duty by May. And if you have a league that rewards Holds, then my goodness, why even bother with a Closer? Today's 8th inning guy is tomorrow's Closer and a top next week's trash heap.

The thing that probably irks my chain the most is that Relief Pitcher or Closer isn't really even all that real of a position. All infield positions are clearly delineated and assigned. The outfield in most fantasy leagues is somewhat murky, but outfielders are still outfielders. Nope, not pitchers. We have these guys we call "Starters" and usually they start baseball games, but sometimes in special playoff circumstances they come in for relief appearances. Or more often "Relief Pitchers" are called on to make spot starts. But regardless of when a pitcher enters a game, he is the only player manning that position at that time.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that pitchers are pitchers are pitchers. It shouldn't matter when they come into the game, they are still pitchers. There's no special roster spot for pinch hitters or defensive replacements. I don't have relief Second Baseman. Why should there be a special spot for "Relief Pitchers"? I know its an easy question for Roto players to answer, "Saves is a category. Starters don't get Saves". Well, nuts to you and your categories. The Save is barely even a real stat anyway.

Did you know, that the Save as a statistic is only 45 years old?  That's right, the Save is younger than the average baseball fan. This should be an easy rallying point for all those "baseball purists" out there to get behind, but no. They get all twisted up over the DH or fear of the impending pitch clock. (Quick aside; I spend a good part of my summer around the local AAA team. I will be covering how the pitch clock affects games) Really, the Save is the bastard cousin of the Win. People are wising up the W as goofy stat that the pitcher has little control over, so the Save's day of reckoning is coming.

Until that day, we will all have to live with the Closers and Saves the way that they are. Its possible that I can learn some sort of Zen technique when watching the 9th inning of a close game that will prepare me to accept that the universe will unfold as it should and that my Closer will throw strikes only if it is meant to be. Or maybe I'll finally just put up a chicken wire cage around my television so that I don't have to explain to my wife how that bottle "accidentally" left my hand again.

Because Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy is Fantasy

Let me start out by giving the proper amount of credit that is due for this picture. I didn't draw it, I guess the artist in the bottom right hand corner did. But my goodness. Just take a second to admire all that it happening in this masterpiece.

I chose this picture for my 2015 Fantasy Baseball primer because I feel like it nicely represents how I feel at the start of every season. High a top my fire breathing unicorn, a firm grip on my .50 cal Golden Eagle with its barrel is sizzling after a fierce battle and still ready for more.  Then, by mid season I'm scouring the waiver wire for help like its Sunday morning back in college and I'm cannibalizing roaches because the hangover's too much to bear.

I've done prep every way you can imagine. I've done old fashioned research and I've done mock drafts and I've done tiers. More than once I even created  my own "super-secret magic formula" to determine auction and draft values. I've done all this and more only to watch my careful calculations fall short when I'm beat by the league winner who calls me in May to ask if the Brewers are an American League team. (That particular league is a bit goofy, but long standing & worth the price of admission in slanderous emails alone)

That's not to say that I've never won money playing Fantasy Baseball. I have. Not as much as I'd like, but I've been good enough to play for free here and there. And I vastly prefer Fantasy Baseball to that soul-sucking roll of the dice America loves to dry-hump Fantasy Football. (Which I still do participate in, but mostly because I can send mass emails saying things that if they went public would prohibit me from running for political office)

Since predicting Fantasy Baseball is an inexact science I thought I'd take it in a different direction. Instead I'll be nominating 5 players for awards that I have entirely made up. Kind of like any of the MTV award shows, the WWE Hall of Fame or the NFL Honors. We'll reassess at some point this season when it makes sense (Because I have license to make it up as I go along, like DeflateGate).

So without further adieu:

Your 2015 MoBettaBaseball Preseason Award Nominees!!!

THE JOEY VOTTO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER YOU'LL GO BIG ON WHO WILL SINGLE-HANDEDLY DESTROY YOUR TEAM:

Miguel Cabrera - Miggy has been one of the all time greats up to this point in his career, but all the warning signs are there: a weakened Tiger's lineup, mounting injuries, age 32 season, the body of a bus driver. I like Miguel Cabrera a lot, but if you go to big with him this season you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Jose Bautista - Since 2010 Joey Bats has been one of the best and most consistent hitters in all of baseball. Except that in 2 of those 5 seasons he played less that 120 games. Coming off a big 2014 he could see a rise in auction price and ADP which for a player headed into his age 34 season could spell disaster.

Corey Kluber - I got nothing but love for Corey Kluber. I took him for $4 last year and rode him all the way to the league championship. But, he saw his innings jump by nearly 90 from 2013 to 2014 and 2 straight Cy Young worthy years while possible is awfully unlikely. I expect him to be a valuable pitcher next year, but if you get crazy for him and he winds up on the shelf for a prolonged period don't come crying to me.

Anthony Rizzo - People be lovin' them Anthony Rizzo this mock draft season. With the .286 BA, 32 HR, & 151 OPS+ he posted during his age 24 season in 2014 its not hard to see why. A second season like this in a Cubs lineup that features a lot of young up and coming talent and Rizzo could establish himself as a stud for years to come. However, its also possible that the Cubs lineup struggles with all of the young pieces that could find themselves in Chicago this summer, and Rizzo drives his numbers down trying to carry a team when he shouldn't have to.

Troy Tulowitzki - If you've ever owned Tulo in a Fantasy Baseball league then you already know. If you've never gone down that road, be my guest. Select the number one shortstop high in the draft or buy him at $30+ and see exactly what happens. Come back and let me know. Please.

THE CHRIS DAVIS AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL BE SUSPENDED AT SOME POINT THIS SEASON:

I'm not going to get to in depth on any of these guys in this category. I have no inside information regarding how these players go about preparing to do their very difficult jobs. I also pass no judgment on athletes who do things that most of us would do in a heartbeat if it meant multi-million dollar salaries and the praise & accolades from millions of people. I just chose 5 guys who I felt like might have something to prove. No accusations. No evidence.

Melky Cabrera

Brian Dozier

JD Martinez

Evan Gattis

Jay Bruce

THE DANNY SALAZAAR AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I WILL GET CARRIED AWAY WITH BIDDING ON DURING DRAFT DAY:

Mookie Betts - Betts flew through the Red Sox farm system like he was wearing suede in the rain. Even once he arrived in Boston he didn't look a bit out of place posting a 128 OPS+ in 213 plate appearances in his age 21 season.  He's young, he's good, and he's fun to watch. Worth every penny.

Kris Bryant - Oh my God!!! Kris Bryant is on the Cubs!!! The 2015 Cubs will fulfill the Back to the Future 2 proficy!!! Kris Bryant spells Chris with a K!!!

Carlos Carrasco - Great end of season. Tribe has a way of producing Cy Young winners. Always go go long on young pitching.

Yordano Ventura - Injuries and innings be damned. All I care about is a 24 year old pitcher who is coming of a 125+ ERA season in a pitchers park like Kauffman Stadium. Unfortunately, I won't be the only one.

Andrew Heaney - No one will see me coming here. I mean, how many guys in my league followed this offseason? Can't be that many. I'll slide in under the radar and steal Heaney. Just watch...

THE BRIAN WILSON AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO'S POST-SEASON ACCOLADES/FREE AGENT HUBBUB WILL WILDLY INFLATE THEIR DRAFT VALUE:

Andrew Miller - Andrew Miller started to get some attention during the Red Sox magical 2013 season. Then he broke his leg or something. But he came back nastier than ever in 2014 and was ultimately traded to the Orioles where he was filthier than a hot tub in a rental house. His big 2014 netted him a 4 year/$36 mil contract from the Yankees to be their set-up man, closer? I don't know exactly. What I do know is that all that popularity will likely result in him being drafted way to high.

Jon Lester - I bought Jon Lester last year in an auction league for $7. At the time everybody told me that I over paid. Well, how do you like me now? Jon Lester would have been the World Series MVP in 2013 if David Ortiz hadn't treated the Cardinals pitchers like they called up from Williamsport. It didn't translate into a draft bump the following year, but now people are believers. Obviously, Lester was great in 2014 and after things like the "Jon Lester Watch" his projected value only figures go way up. I've already starting seeing him on a lot of top 10 SP rankings.

Pablo Sandoval - Just like when pitchers go to Petco Park everyone assumes their ERA will drop by a whole point and they'll become instant fantasy studs, people tend to assume that when a hitter goes to Fenway they'll channel their inner Ted Williams. In addition to that way of thinking, he is still in that prime age range 27-32 and was the best available 3b on the market this year with the attention associated with that distinction. Enough owners in your league(s) will bid on the promise and turn a blind eye to the numbers that tell us that Sandoval may have already peaked at 24. (We all have that friend who peaked at 24. Their 30's are not pretty)

Eric Hosmer - People have been buying Eric Hosmer's potential for years. Only year after year they wind up a pocket full of salt for their trouble. Well, he once again snuck his way back into our hearts thanks to a deep Royal playoff run which featured him hitting .351 with a .983 OPS. Its starting to look like a lot of that promise being realized for the 25 year old first baseman which will lure everyone right back in like the Seirenes.

Yasmany Tomas - MLB has got Cuba on the brain. Part of it is all the hubbub over the apparent market values that teams earn when they hit on these Cuban players. That means teams are ready to drop big money on players who might be near MLB ready or might just be internet trolls (There's only one way to find out). The other factor in play here is how mysterious Cuba seems to all us Americans. We know its there. Their people keep showing up in Florida on rafts. Our grandparents may have once vacationed there, but we don't know anything other than its got old cars, great cigars and a baseball league in which many of us could earn a tryout. Some people get excited for the unknown. Then again some people get excited having their bangers & mash squashed by high heels.


THE EMILO BONIFACIO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL GET OFF TO A HOT START IN APRIL ONLY TO SINK BACK TO REPLACEMENT LEVEL IN MAY:

BJ Upton - No one wants BJ Upton to be bad. We all want him to be good. He could go on a tear in April carrying an otherwise destitute Braves team. Whether or not he sustains that hypothetical production determines whether he takes home the hardware in this category.

Marcus Semien - As of right now he is the likely starting SS for the Oakland Athletics. Billy Beane always looks crazy until he looks like a genius. Seems like a prefect storm for Semien to take off hot out the gate in the 2013 Jose Iglesias mold.

Michael Bourn - As a fantasy baseball commodity there is a lot not to like about Michael Bourn (I'm sure he's a perfectly fine person though). He used to be a good source of steals and average, but now he does none of that, and he bogs down an otherwise fun to watch Tribe team. It just makes too much sense that he would get off to an early season tear and trick all of us into picking him up thinking he's back.

Adeiny Hechavarria - Entering his age 26 season and benefiting from an improving Marlins line-up Hechavarria is poised for an early season surge. Then we'll hear a lot about how "He's figured something out" and "The pressure's off with that line-up". He also had a few hot streaks in 2014 where we started telling ourselves those very things.

Emilo Bonifacio - There's a reason this award is named after him. EMILO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE EDWIN JACKSON AWARD FOR VETERAN PLAYER WHO YOU'LL TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO DROP BY LATE APRIL:

Carl Crawford - The Craw-Daddy has always been a perplexing fantasy player. Once he was a young, promise-laden player who started to deliver. Then he got hurt & people forgot about him. And just like that he rose back to the top of fantasy outfielders en route to a big time free agent contract with Boston. Then he got hurt again & he didn't like playing in Boston. So the Red Sox were happy to ship him out west where he landed in the outfield purgatory known as Dodger Stadium. But he's gotta have one more good season in him, right?

Ricky Weeks - I'll be honest here: I don't know exactly what happened to Ricky Weeks. A few years ago he was a must own at 2b, but since 2012 no one will even answer his texts. Last year he did post a 124 ERA+, which was in line with his peak years of 2009-2011. The rub is that he did it in only 286 plate appearances. If someone doesn't do their homework they might look at Weeks as a potential bounce back candidate. After all he's only 32 years old.

CC Sabathia - CC will be drafted in a lot of leagues this year. He's as healthy as he's ever gonna be and he was just so good for so many years. He's got to have just a little left in the tank right? One more year of that good ole' Yankee Magic???

Ubaldo Jimenez - Why would the Orioles give so much money to this guy just last season? If its one thing that the Dan Duquette O's have shown us is that they know how to turn around a distressed asset. Well at the plate anyway. Maybe the Baltimore has a plan in place this year to reward Jimenez for good performances. Like maybe they have a chart on the wall headed towards the clubhouse with gold stickers for each strike he throws..

Josh Johnson - For some reason we keep getting sucked back in with Josh Johnson. There was that one season that he was healthy for the whole year and pitched really well. He's only going to be 30 this year and he's got a do-over year in San Diego with an offense that might score more than 1.1 runs per game. And now that he may have to earn his way into the rotation he's definitely my little secret (again).

THE MASAHIRO TANAKA AWARD FOR PLAYER WHO WILL SEEM LIKE A REACH, BUT PLAYS LIKE A STUD UNTIL AN UNFORESEEN INJURY DERAILS HIS SEASON:

Clay Buccholtz - The Red Sox 2015 rotation has been poo-pooed too much this off season for Buccholtz not to break out again. He's already shown that can be one of the most dominant pitchers in all the game when he's healthy and right. Unfortunately, toddlers have the power to take away his health, and me writing this now may somehow get in his head. He's a sensitive guy.

Cliff Lee - There's two ways that Cliff Lee finishes the year in Philadelphia. One is that he really, just plain likes living there and vetoes any trade (if he has that power). There's some evidence to that since he chose to sign there in 2011 when he could have signed just about anywhere else for similar or better money. The other is that he gets hurt. I'm betting he comes out like the Cliff Lee of old only to suffer the kind of injury that besets 36 year old pitchers just around the time that Philly is looking to finally move him. And its probably what they deserve for not moving on as an organization earlier.

Anthony Rizzo - I've been hearing some chatter for Rizzo as a first round pick. Its not unreasonable considering the year he put up last year, but he is young and has only had that kind of year once. He could very well prove everyone right in April and May and then something dumb happens like a dislocated shoulder. I'm not hoping for it, but it could happen.

David Wright - David Wright is usually better than I remember, but I carry an unreasonable bias against putting Mets on my Fantasy Baseball teams. He usually puts up solid numbers until he gets some sort of nagging injury and Citi Field has never done him any favors. That's not to say that he wont put up some big early numbers in the midst of a gradually improving Mets lineup. Yep, Wright will put up those numbers just in time for one of those little injuries to sap what power he can muster in that warehouse of a ball park only for him to repeat his 2014: 586 PA 101 ERA+

Yu Darvish - No doubt about it, Darvish has been a monster since coming over from Japan 3 years ago. The thing is that many Japanese pitchers seem to hit a wall right around year 3 or 4. I don't know if its the different pitching schedule, the cultural approach, different sized ball, or the innings they put on those young arms before they let them come over here, but it has happened time and time again. If Yu is healthy he'll be the beast you know, if he's not Texas may now share the pain of sitting through a Dice-K start.

THE TOMMY MEDICA AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ON TO DESPITE NO RESULTS:

Tommy Medica- Lets be real here for a second. There can be only one. I'll draft him for $1 and hold him for the entire season only to watch him get 50 ABs.


If you've made it this far then you probably know that we're not very big on fantasy analytics around here. What I am big on is hypothetical narratives for Fantasy Baseball players. Those I've got all day.

Want to see an award category added? Drop me a line and I'd be happy to do a 2nd edition. Thanks for reading and be sure to check back as I will letting readers decided my team names this year.