Its Time to Overreact About the Cubs

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

We made the right decision Jon. We did. 

Josh

Going back to early season overreacting, are the Cubs sounding the alarms already?

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/29745/cubs-offense-in-need-of-help

This is just feeding the crowd who wanted Bryant to start with the team. However, the article specifically seems to be highlighting that they have trouble scoring with guys in scoring position. Hitting with RISP tends to even out over a bigger sample size. Remember how the cardinals basically rode a high BA with RISP (specifically by Allen Craig) to a World Series then couldn't recreate it? RISP means guys hit to get on. As Rizzo says in the article keep getting on base and the RBIs will come. 

That's not to say putting a guy who hit over .300 in the minors in your lineup wouldn't help your offense. It would. And he will be there soon enough as has been discussed at length. Doesn't guarantee he'd hit with RISP though or solve that problem. To me, It's not really worth pushing the panic button on April 11th.  However, panic sells, especially in bigger markets with fragile fan bases. Gotta get those early season clicks somehow, he says while winking at the camera.

Uncle Bones

Its important here to note the difference between the Cubs sounding the panic bell and the Cubs/baseball media creating the panic narrative out of thin air. I know that you know the difference and basically pointed it out above, but I think us baseball types (yes, we're baseball types now. It needed to be said) may have assumed something about the Cubs that wasn't necessarily true. So without going into the unreasonable nature of hand wringing over .0185% of the season lets talk about the offense that the Cubs actually hit the ground with to start 2015.

1 Dexter Fowler CF - Career OPB .365 - Serviceable, but not stand-out for a lead off hitter and at age 29 not likely to get much better.

2 Jorge Soler RF - Only 23 years old. I can put his number here, but they don't mean anything. He might be really good, but he's just as likely to need some time to be really good.

3 Anthony Rizzo 1B - In 2014 as a 24 year old posted a 151 OPS+ in 616 PA's. Kid's a stud. We should be annoyed that the Red Sox traded him, but him for... Wade Miley... but eh... I still like the team they have now.

4 Miguel Montero C - Has not posted an OPS+ above 100 since 2012. He's 31 now and still a catcher. He is not who you want in the clean-up spot.

5 Starlin Castro SS - 25 yo, career OPS+ of 99, and if the Cubs were really that high on him they wouldn't have traded for Addison Russel and we wouldn't be hearing rumors about him going to the Padres

6 Chris Coghlan LF - Has a career OPS+ of 100 despite only having 2 season about 100: 2008 & 2014. And he's 30 this season. If the Cubs are lucky he's an average player. If they're lucky...

7 Mike Olt 3B - Other than just keeping 3B warm for Bryant, Olt's other claim to fame is having never hit about .200 in any season in his career. I'm sorry, but he has shown nothing to demonstrate that he is a major league hitter.

8 Pitcher Spot - The numbers say hitting the pitcher 8th is the best way to go. I'm glad Joe Maddon will actually do it day in day out and not just pay lip service to the idea, but for our purposes lets be generous: whoever hits here has a .200 average.

9 Arismendy Alcantara 2B - A fantasy darling this spring, but at 23 has done nothing to prove that he's an everyday hitter. You want more evidence? He hits 9th for the Cubs. I rest my case.

My take away from all this? The Cubs line-up is just plain not that good. Their top 3 is pretty good, but the Cubs could do better than Fowler in the lead-off spot and Soler is no sure thing this season. Miguel Montero is not the 4 hitter on a winning team. From there they go from average to abysmal quick. So it shouldn't be a huge surprise that the Cubs are struggling to score runs. They have one stud, some more or less average veterans and a bunch of youngsters who haven't carried their weight as of yet.

Bryant slotting into the 4th spot and sending Montero, Castro, Coghlan down and Olt to anywhere else will definitely help, but looking at that line-up for what it is, I understand why Theo and crew are OK waiting out those 2 weeks or so. Unless 2 or 3 of those youngsters take a huge step forward, the Cubs are still a "wait till next year" team. 

BTW if you Google "Cubs lineup" this is what you get. Look at Manny's mugshot. WTF???

Josh

Very interesting points.  So clearly the Cubs were so hyped they were actually overvalued.  Seems to happen every year.  What is the cause of this?  Do writers just appreciate a good story?  People WANT to believe in the Cubs, but it seems it was beyond statistical reasoning.

Uncle Bones

Baseball is the American sport of where narratives find their home. From its inception it has come alive in the minds of millions through the written word. When baseball first started the only way to keep abreast of the results was from the daily paper, a then thriving form of media. Next came the radio, which allowed for fans to follow a game without being in attendance, but if you missed a game the write up and the box score were still in featured prominently in the next day's paper. Then TV, internet, podcasts and so forth, but reading and writing about baseball is still a major part of how the sport is understood. It was "America's Pastime", because at a time it was something that you could discuss with any one from your community because it was regularly presented in the media of the time and it was relatively easy to keep on top of whether you were interested or not.

So for fans and media types to latch on to the story of the 2015 Cubs is not all that surprising. The years of failure, plus the organizational stewardship of Theo Epstein, plus the eccentric yet media friendly Joe Madden, plus the promise of youth, plus the addition of an "Ace" had everyone all amped up on the North Sides "Lovable Losers". The angle that fascinates me the most about the Cubs obsession is that how much the White Sox are an all but forgotten Chicago team. Its not like the Yankees & Mets where one team has been around for way longer and has won way more in its history. Its not even really like the situations in Los Angeles or the Bay Area. For whatever reason, the Cubs are the Chicago team that really generates the narrative. Both the Cubs and the White Sox were founded in the 19th century. Both teams won early on in the history and not much sense then. And while the White Sox took home the WS hardware in 2005 you never heard anything about them being cursed even though they managed to go 88 years between titles. 

So the Cubs clearly have a special place in America's consciousness and this always lend itself to a runaway narrative. 

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.3

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

I think on a very direct player for player, in a vacuum style of evaluation, the Dodgers won this trade.  The 2 big prizes for the Sox in that trade, Webster and De La Rosa, were turned into Wade Miley, a guy expected to be a serviceable #4 and nothing else.  A Gon is in the heart of the Dodgers order and a huge key to their success.  However, things don't exist in a vacuum and the Sox won this trade in the big picture purely for the financial relief it gave them. The Carl Crawford signing was a black eye on the Theo Epstein era, it was as if The Eagles decided to end their career on a salsa covers album.  Despite all the amazing things they accomplished, recency effect is a real thing and people only remember the beginnings and ends of things.  This trade got the team out from under the majority of that contract.  As much as all Sox fans love Josh beckett for 2007, his surly attitude only works when he's pitching well. He had worn out his welcome in Boston.  The biggest benefit of this trade was of course the financial bailout that came with it, the scale of which we haven't seen since the financial crisis. With the Dodgers playing the role of the federal government,the money saved allowed the Sox to go on a unique spending spree, one of value and volume, that lead to the 2013 World Series....and then finishing last place in 2014.  The Ben Cherington era has been all or nothing so far, and this year it appears as if he's going all in on the "all" part again.  

Uncle Bones

In the end it would seem to me that the "Great Dodgers-Red Sox Swap of 2012" was one of those odd baseball trades where every one was a winner, but for different reasons. It shows how much the financial aspects of the game are as much of a factor when it comes to roster building and player movement as the actual talent of the player. Basketball has it to a certain extent, but now have a system in place for bailing out owners and GM's who lose their minds on contracts. I'm sure hockey has something... I mean the shut down the whole sport because ownership thought players were making too much... And the NFL, my God. Those players make peanuts compared to what baseball players make, can be cut at a moments notice AND football the most profitable sport in America.

But none of that in baseball. You sign a contract and that money is guaranteed and you typically stay on a roster until the contract is over (although sometimes a team will each money for a year). Thats one of the things that makes the Red Sox current approach to roster building so fascinating. They clearly have a plan and they are sticking to it.

Without rehashing the Red Sox moves of the last the years I'm gonna hone in on the recently announced Rick Porcello deal. Understanding this whole deal starts with Jon Lester around this time last year when he had turned down what seemed to be a low ball offer from the Sox for something around 4yrs/$70 mil. I believe that Red Sox when they say that this was just a starting number, but I also don't blame Lester's team for tabling the whole thing. He knew he'd make way more money than that and even if he blew his arm out on Opening Day, the Sox would still likely sign him for that.

So on it went, with the Sox falling out of contention and ultimately dealing an age 30 Lester to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes who I also believe that the Red Sox were interested in retaining (at the right price). I also think that they were curious in feeling out Cespedes with the impending bidding wars for other Cuban players like Rusney Castillo, Yosmany Thomas, and Yoan Moncada on the horizon. They had just missed out on sensation Jose Abreu and they didn't want to be left holding the bag again. Then by the offseason w/ Ramirez and Castillo in the fold, Betts on the horizon, and Victorino still kicking about, the Red Sox traded Cespedes for Rick Porcello. Porcello who has great peripheral numbers and who thrives with a great defense behind him. Porcello who will be 26 this season with the kind of easy delivery that typically avoids the DL.

The Red Sox then gave Porcello the same money they wanted to give Lester except now they are paying for all of his years up to age 30 instead of all of the years after 30. And while that seems like a shocking number at first, watch what Jordan Zimmermann (30 in 2016), Johnny Cueto (30 in 2016), Ian Kennedy (31 in 2016), Jeff Samardzija (31 in 2016), David Price (30 in 2016), Mat Latos (28 in 2016) get next off season. The list is huge, I could go on. The Red Sox already have 3 rotation spots locked up for next year (assuming they pick up Buchholz's option and that Joe Kelly isn't starting next year; either way) with atleast 2-3 pitchers at Triple A who could fill the void. Or they could take a short term plunge on any of the starting FA's who miss out next year's on bonanza.

The Yankees have no such options. They are already down one starting pitcher, the 35 year old Chris Capuano, are stuck with a broken CC Sabathia, and a more than likely TJ bound Tanaka. Then again they've got Pineda & Nova, 2 pitchers under 30 who have yet to pitch a whole season. Oh and Nate Evoldi who might want to just sign baseball's before he throws them as they could make great collector's items as they fly over the right field wall at Yankees stadium. They are going to have to sign at least one or two of the marquee pitching FA's if they are serious about contending and they will probably pay sticker only to be left to 2 broken down 35 year old pitchers 5 years from now.

Josh

All valid points.  The Yanks have been in "should have rebuilt" mode for a few years, and now are definitely in that mode. That is not a fanbase that is necessarily comfortable in a rebuild.

ICYMI

Part 1

Part 2

Why Do We Think We Know Better Than Yankees?

Ooo... That looks painful

By all accounts the New York Yankees are the model franchise of all North American professional sports. They have won 27 World Series Championships. Next closest in all of the major North American franchises is the Montreal Canadians of the NHL with 24. Followed by the NBA's own Lakers and Celtics with 17 a piece. The next MLB team down the list? The St. Louis Cardinals with 10. That's right, the New York Yankees have 17 more championships than the next closest team in their league. They know how to win baseball games and they've been doing it for a very long time.

So why do we, and by we I mean the fantasy baseball community, baseball chattering class, baseball bloggers, casual fans, people on the street and the random J-Pop stars that I follow in Twitter seem to think that we all know better than the Yankees? Why are we all so convinced the Masahiro Tanaka will not last the entire 2015 season? The Yankees have actually talked to Tanaka. They have seen his medical records, his x-rays, and the size shirts he wears. They know everything there is to know about him and the 27 time World Series Champion New York Yankees believe that letting Tanaka pitch this season is A-O-K. Why?

Before we try and answer that question, lets try to figure out why we think we're so right. Back in July of 2014 after lighting the league on fire, Masahiro Tanaka went down with a partially torn ligament in his throwing elbow. The kind of injury that usually results in Tommy John surgery for the majority of players, pitchers or otherwise. If you've gotten this far into the article and can point an instance of a pitcher who avoided TJ after a partially torn UCL please chime in. I will fix this post and cite you as a source. I know its happened once or twice, but for the most part after teams get that 2nd opinion on the damaged UCL, its surgery. Teams usually figure that its easier to bite that 12-18 months recovery time than to have a 2 month recovery followed a questionable return and then probably a visit from TJ anyway. So please, once again, if you have a case where a pitcher with a torn or partially torn UCL has come back and pitched effectively hit me up. I'd love to hear it.  

The Yankees knew all that. They're not dumb. They have won 27 World Series titles after all. But instead they opted for rest and rehab. Maybe it was because they wanted to get the most use out of their brand new $155 million investment. Maybe it was because they were trying keep the Derek Jeter retirement tour chugging along as if it wasn't a lost season. Or maybe they really just thought that Tanaka could heal his ligament without changing how he threw a baseball.

To be clear, I understand why the Yankees would want as much Masahiro Tanaka as they can get. The first 3 months of the 2014 season he posted a 2.10 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and 127 K's in 115.2 innings (ESPN). He made hitters look silly and he won 13 games which for only throwing just a hair over 130 innings in pretty good. There's a lot to like there, but once the elbow injury surfaced Tanaka nose-dived in a big way to the point where the Yankees shut him down all together just a 7 innings in to his September return.

So what do the Yankees know that the rest of the baseball world doesn't? I'm afraid nothing. These are not your father's Reggie Jackson, Thurman Munson, work hard, come through in the clutch Yankees. Nor are these your grandfather's outclass, out-talent, just a million times better than anyone Yankees. Hell, these are not even your older brother's Core4, Mike Mussina, Paul O'Neill and Bernie Williams belong in the Hall of Fame Yankees. This is the mostly 30+/$20 mil a year, mediocre at best farm system, grasping at straws, 27 time World Series Champion Yankees. And while those 27 World Series Championship are a nice thing to hang your hat on (or in most cases throw in every one else's face), they don't do diddly-squat for them this year, next year or any year in the future. 

I think the bottom line reason that Masahiro Tanaka is still pitching for the Yankees and not recovering from a mid-July TJ surgery is because the Yankees have no other options. Its probably true that a slightly above replacement level Tanaka is better than no Tanaka. And he's probably better than anybody else the Yankees could trot out there right now. I don't blame them for not getting deep with Lester or Scherzer this off-season. Especially considering the FA class hitting the market in 2016 and the money they have coming off the books in the next 3 years. Unfortunately, a reduced Tanaka gets them no closer to the playoffs this season than no Tanaka will get them. But then again, these are your grasping at straws, let's see what sticks to the wall, we'll still cash in on merch sales, 27 time World Series Champion Yankees.

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.2

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Uncle Bones

To me, saying that baseball should have LESS playoff teams because you want to see the 2 teams with the best record in the World Series is kinda like arguing that gay marriage should be illegal because being attracted to a person of the same sex might be contagious and that the science is still out on that one because no one has done the research yet. In other words, its absurd. Its also like saying that there are too many billboards at the stadiums as if teams shouldn't be trying to maximize their returns at every opportunity.

Let me remind you and anyone who might read this that the MLB season is 162 games long with each team playing 81 home games. Its not easy work getting butts in those seats and eyes on those games day in day out. Going to a baseball game is not an inexpensive proposition and sitting through 162 3 1/2-4 hour baseball games on TV is no treat either, ESPECIALLY when you are watching a team that is either not competitive or not competitive enough so for a shot at the post season.

This is compounded when you think about how regional of a sport baseball is. Yes, the Yankees, Red Sox, and to an extent the Braves have done a great job at expanding their national appeal, but very few people outside of Houston are Astros fans. Same goes for the Royals, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, etc. The longer into the season fans of these teams are able to stay engaged in their team the better. Not only is it the best thing for business, but its the best things for the fans relationships with those teams.

Our defending American League Champion Kansas City Royals are a prime example of this. Before our time the Royals were often considered the AAAA team for the New York Yankees as so much of their talent wound up in NY before it had a chance to win in Kansas City. Then they held on to players in the '80's (when baseball put in ALCS & NLCS) and won, but then in our lifetime we say the same thing happen again. Carlos Betran, Johnny Damon, Zack Grienke, the list goes on, shipped out of town because the Royals didn't want to spend the money on players when they weren't going to compete. Then what happened in 2014? Bolstered by a trade that brought in Major League talent, the Royals hung in it all the way to end, got hot in the playoffs and the rest his history. If there was not 2 Wild Card spots and maybe only 2 teams from each league made the team then Shields would have been dealt and the Royals would have been rebuilding again.

More playoff spots means more teams in contention, more eyes on the product and more fans maintaining an interest year after year. Seems like a smart strategy for a sport that has an average fan base the sits right around the mid 50's. But here's a question for you. Right now MLB has 5-ish playoff spot per league. Too many to some, but still much less than the NBA or NHL and only 1 less that the NFL. How many playoff teams is too man? Sure long term fan engagement is great, but how excited are most fans when their team locks down the 8-seed in the NBA? I tend to follow a lot of Boston media and some folks are wondering whats up with the Celtics approaching the 8-seed in the East. I know the Celts are rebuilding, but is it that bad that the team might be ahead of its time frame? And does sending half of the conferences' team to the playoffs cheapen the whole experience?

Josh

As a lifelong hockey fan, I can say throwing 16 teams in the playoff mix is nothing short of awesome. It differs from the NBA in the sense that low seeds regularly have a chance. Bottom seeds have made it to the cup, and won it. But hockey is different, they've had multiple teams come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the playoffs.  Remember when the Red Sox did that it was a huge story, but it actually has happened in hockey enough to the point where it's a fun story, not a monumental one.  

That said, the length of baseball games doesn't lend itself to more playoff games.  I love a good 5 hour late october slog as much as any baseball stalwart, but that doesnt play to the casual fan. Plus when your team is in the playoffs, it's a different vibe sport to sport.  Overtime hockey is, in my opinion, the only thing that matches the anxiety, dread, and excitement  of late inning playoff baseball. Baseball's "slowness" just lends itself to heightened wonder and anxious pacing in the playoffs.  The "slow" moments are building up to one moment where everything can change (Cue Don Henley's "in a new york munute...oohh we wooo...) If the Red Sox had to play MORE games in October, do you really think you could stomach that?  Probably, but you might have some explaining to do when you walk into work the next day wearing one shoe and 3 day scruff going.  

In regards to your Shields comment, did the pundits who bashed the Royals for that trade ever double back on their words?  Or did they just slink away like the guy who starts a fight and lets his friends finish it?  The whole argument against it was the years of control of Wil Myers.....who the Rays recently traded. That trade proved to me that snap judgments on organizational moves are good for sound bites and tweet headlines in the 24 news cycle, but they take years to play out and truly evaluate.  

Uncle Bones

The fact that baseball has only had 1 team to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series says two things. One of which being that there just haven't been nearly the same number of playoff series that hockey and basketball have seen. And two, the difference between good teams and good enough teams is probably pretty wide.

Now imagine if 8 teams from BOTH the National League and the American League made the playoffs in 2014. How excited are you right now thinking about a 5 game series between the Angels and the Yankees and the Nationals and the Mets. That's right, both NY teams would have made the playoffs as 8 cedes and both teams would have gotten snuffed out like a spider in a day care. And if that's not bad enough consider that the 7 & 8 cedes in the NL both would have had a 79-83 record. All that to add another week and a half to a season that already ends in early November. Eck...

I do think its funny that you brought up having a rooting interest in October baseball. I remember in September of 2013 as the Red Sox marched towards the playoffs thinking about how my life was about to change in ways I wasn't prepared for in the next month. Sure enough, there I was arguing with strangers about the proper application of runner interference & texting you to discuss the Sox bullpen situation while at my wife's birthday dinner. October baseball does things to me and not all of them are good.

As far as grading trades go, talking heads gotta make noise (its why they're there), but its impossible to grade a trade when it happens, 24 hours after it happens, a whole year after it happens. Baseball is the ultimate long game. Its one of the reasons why advance stats took hold here first. There are a lot of games and players can spend a lot of time in an organization. So while its tempting, and some times necessary (if its your job) to pass judgement on a single transaction moments after it happens everyone knows you're just talking to be heard.

Now for fun, almost 3 years later tell me who won this trade:

Red Sox acquire Allen Webster, Ruby De La Rosa, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Jerry Sands & James Loney

Dodgers acquire Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett & Nick Punto

Red Sox also sent $12 million. 

Who won? 

Part 3 

ICYM pt.1

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.1

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

Do we dare submit our predictions and succumb to the pressures of clickbait, newsworthiness and timeliness?  I say yes!  Who are we to flout the conventions of blogging.  here are my mildly unscientific predictions

AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Indians

NL West: Mariners

AL Wildcard game LA Angels over Chicago White Sox

NL East: Nationals

NL Central: Pirates

NL West:  Dodgers

NL Wildcards:  Marlins over Padres

ALCS- Red Sox over Mariners

NLCS- Nationals over Marlins

World Series-  Nationals over Red Sox in 6

AL ROY- Carlos Rodon

NL ROY- Kris Bryant

AL Cy Young-  Felix Hernandez

NL Cy Young- Jordan Zimmermann 

AL MVP:  Mike Trout

NL MVP:  Giancarlo Stanton 

Yes I realize picking against Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young is enough to warrant Lucy from the Peanuts "5 cents for Psychiatry" type of help, but he has to slow down sooner or later right? Zimmermann is the Joe Walsh of the Nationals staff, and Strasburg and Scherzer are Don Henley and Glenn Frey.  Sure Fry and Henley were the principals, but you don't have Hotel California without Walsh's solo.  

Uncle Bones

The true function of the internet is not to expose people to new ideas that they didn't know existed, its provide the content that reinforces the beliefs and interests that they already had. Oh and cat videos. Since no one writes any comments, clicks are the only feedback available. And we love feedback.

AL East - Baltimore Orioles

Rotation solid with sufficient young upside and the offense should be good enough to feast on a division of average to poor pitching.

AL Central - Chicago White Sox

Top 3 starters known commodities & will mix and match the rest. O unbalanced, but the top of the lineup will carry that team.

AL West - Seattle Mariners

Its an easy bandwagon to get on when you consider the questions that surround the rest of the division.

AL WC1 - Boston Red Sox

Line-up will mash, but back end of rotation will be in flux all year.

AL WC2 - Cleveland Indians

Only because a one game playoff between Francona and Farrell is what we as baseball fans deserve.

NL East - Washington Nationals

I mean, come on.

NL Central - Pittsburgh Pirates

This team does to many things right to mucking around that Wild Card spot forever.

NL West- LA Dodgers

This team will still get it done despite Don Mattingly.

NL WC1 - St. Louis Cardinals

I can never count them out.

NL WC2 - San Diego Padres

I think the edge the Cubs on Karma. Padres are clearly all in, Cubs are too reliant on young players.

AL WC Game - Red Sox

Not that Farrell deserves it more than Tito, they'll just hit and hit and hit...

NL WC Game - Cardinals

Been there, done that.

ALDS - White Sox v. Orioles

White Sox - Top 3 starters too much in a 5 game series

ALDS - Mariners v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I know pitching wins championships, but after Felix who do you really count on in that rotation? Plus Red Sox will be a wrecking crew by then.

NLDS - Pirates v. Dodgers

Pirates - Mattingly finally does them in.

NLDS - Nationals v. Cardinals

Nationals - Too much pitching. Too much offense.

ALCS - White Sox v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I like the White Sox, but I don't like them that much.

NLCS - Nationals v. Pirates

Nationals - As smart and tough as the Pirates are that Nats are just overwhelming

World Series - Nationals v. Red Sox

This is where the Red Sox starting rotation minus a huge move or 2 will be undone. A healthy Nats team can hang offensively and the pitching is just that much better.

The Washington Nationals as your World Series Champions!

AL ROY: Rusney Castillo (Betts used up his eligibility last season)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL MVP: Mike Trout

NL ROY: Joc Pedersen

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

I read your picks this morning and then went about my day so as to intentionally forget what you had written. I was amused to go back and see that we both had the Nats over the Red Sox in the World Series. Its like, "Yep, we're homers, but we're not that big of homers".

One take away that I had from this whole exercise was really thinking long and hard about the AL Central and coming away not liking any of the teams all that much. So much can go wrong for the Tigers and so much has to go right for the Tribe. The White Sox are really unbalanced and we didn't even mention the AL Camp Royals or red headed stepchild Twins. That division will be interesting and I wouldn't be shocked if the team that wins it only does it with 88 wins.

Now all we need is a title about naked celebrities and our attempt at click bate will be complete.

Josh

I had a tough time NOT picking the Cardinals for the NL Central.  Somehow they get it together every year, and a big piece in their lineup in Matt Carpenter is probably due for a bounce back, as is Wacha.  I know in September we'll be watching them close a 5 game gap in like 12 games and be sitting here saying "I told you so" as the pundits pontificate about how the Cardinals pump their fists on home runs THE RIGHT WAY and Normal Rockwell makes a painting about it

Can we talk about the random nature of the baseball playoffs for a minute?  After reading our predictions I realized that by the time we actually get to October, someone like the Reds will be on a run that no one saw coming, Felix Hernandez will be out for the year, and the A's will have traded half their roster.  We've seen wild cards win the past few years.  Ultimately the best team during the season isn't really rewarded for anything, and all it takes is a team getting hot at the right time.  I have no personal problem with this as it keeps fan bases engaged longer, but I've heard some lament that they'd rather see the truly best teams in the world series.  I don't know, isn't randomness what makes sports kinda fun?  

Part 2

Baseball Getting the Business End

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

If you kids don't get your sh*t together I'm replacing all of you

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Uncle Bones

Since we seem to be trending towards the business side of things here a bit check out this link to Forbes valuations of all the MLB franchises:

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/#page:1_sort:0_direction:asc_search:

Granted, this is only a snapshot of an organization's financial health, but I'm still curious if any of these numbers jump off the page at you. (Beyond the $ values which are largely hypothetical)

Pay particular attention to the teams who are operating in the red this season. A few of them are floating right around breaking even, but a some others like the Phillies, Tigers & Blue Jays are operating at major losses.

Does MLB owe it to its consumers to ensure that these franchises have a long term plan to get in the black? Or is it really OK for an owner or ownership group to throw money around like they're Rick Ross at a strip club until they're like MC Hammer at the soup kitchen?

Josh

I feel like you were lofting a Detroit poverty joke over the plate for me, but I am going to Joey Votto that one and let it go by, hoping to earn the walk.  

I always find the idea of "owing" consumers interesting. What DOES a team owe it's fans in general?  Going back to the tanking debate, some might say that the team owes it's fans the best product they can put on the field night in and night out. OR does the team owe them long term sustainability, which is what tanking is working toward?  I tend to agree with the latter.  Earlier in the year Buster Olney pointed out that Joe Girardi hit Jeter second in the lineup due to "organizational pressures."  In that case, did the team owe it's fans the best line up possible, or did it owe them the ability to watch a legend go out on his own terms?  The line is murky at best, totally open ended at worst.   

That wasn't a filibuster, but more of an establishment of how debatable the idea of "owing" your fans something is.  I do believe in owing them long term sustainability.  I live in Buffalo, and until Terry Pegula fracked his way into our hearts, we lived with a constant dread of the Buffalo Bills moving. Once the Bills started playing games in Toronto, the dread went from minor anxiety to full blown freakout.  Much like the "presence" in the current horror hit It Follows, the fear was ongoing, ever present and impossible to shake. When the Pegula deal was announced, grown men called into the local radio station crying tears of joy. So does a team owe it's fans peace of mind?  Ideally yes, but this idea is better in theory than in practice.  Just ask San Diego Chargers and St Louis Rams fans how they feel right now.  

In regards to the financial numbers, if anything I took away that baseball is in the age of parity.  Look at the Royals and Athletics, two contenders last year operating with low payroll and showing financial health.  The Mets, Phillies and Yankees appear in the top 10 franchises, further proof that money buys you a chance but guarantees you nothing in baseball. Parity rewards fans. The NFL probably likes the Pats and Seahawks playing in the super bowl, but poll casual fans outside of those two fan bases and I'd wager you hear about how they're tired of seeing those teams in the finals. Who WASN'T excited watching the Royals last year, you know? 

Uncle Bones

Being a Bills fan the last 10 years was sort of like having a loved one being diagnosed with a terminal illness. We felt like it was just a matter of time before they were gone, but we really didn't know when or how exactly we would deal with it. Then suddenly a pop-up billionaire swooped in with the miracle cure and here we are. Personally, I had already started the "moving on" process only to be sucked right back in. I'm still not sure how I feel about it given my other apprehensions surrounding the NFL, but I'm fairly sure I'll be tuned in come September.

I like to pretend that I can disassociate the emotion of being a fan with the business realities of professional sports, but it's not quite that simple. I think what surprised me the most about that list was the total valuation of all the MLB teams combined that fell somewhere around $36 billion give or take. Theoretically, should MLB be posted for public trading it would fetch around that number for an IPO, but I suspect it might creep up a little higher than that.

That's seems like a lot of money and it is, but it still less that half of what Facebook was offered for. That's crazy to me. MLB has an over 100 year history and has been an American establishment as long as any who is alive can remember. Facebook has been on the planet for the third of the time that you and I have been and I can't even hold it in my hand. I've never attended a Facebook, its not on TV, it only exists on the Internet and something tells me that in 40 years we won't be talking about the comment that Parker liked that Madison made about the picture Lily posted of her cat's birthday cake in the same way we still talk about 1975 World Series.

So yeah, baseball is a business and it's a big one, but there are bigger ones out there. I was also surprised to see that some teams didn't make money last year. I know that there are debt issues attached to that math, but what it reminds me is that you don't buy a sports team to necessary make money. Its kinda like the ultimate rich guy status symbol. You know you're rich when you own a team and so does everyone else.

That also says to me that if you cared enough to buy a sports team then you are probably a fan yourself. And as a fan you would want the team that you own to win as much as possible. I wouldn't want to own a loser. Some people might be fine with it, but it would piss me right off.

Keep that in mind when I own (sponsor) a slew of Little League teams. You'll just hear in the news that "Local man ejected from LL game again", but truth will be that I was just doing everything in my power to urge those little tykes to victory. Oh and also to grow my brand.

The Great Fantasy Tank

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

"You're staying in Charlie"
"But Skip, I'm done"
"You're staying in"

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

I had this thought about tanking in fantasy sports like the  Buffalo Sabres are doing now. They and the Arizona Coyotes are both tanking and they play each other twice within the next week.  it's like the reverse Stanley Cup.  The Connor McDavid bowl.   Like, if you knew Mike Trout was going back in the pool in a keeper league you were having a bad season, would you purposely sell off assets to get the top pick? That only works in snake drafts.  I suppose in auction you'd just have to free up a lot of salary.  And would it be worth it?  Would other owners take a moral high ground about it? 

Uncle Bones

To tank or not tank, that is the question.

On a real, professional level its a debate with no easy answer. Everyone wants to root for a winner and tanking is a strategy directly in conflict with that. But when the Indianapolis Colts threw a season away with Curtis Painter at QB they were rewarded with Andrew Luck and a prompt return to the status of perennial playoff team. On the surface (and as a Bills fan) it seems like an obvious choice, but when the vast majority of professional sports teams play in publicly funded stadiums, are given generous tax breaks, and derive income from those of us who root for laundry it complicates the picture. Shouldn't each team, every year put the best team forward possible? If we are owed anything as a fan, I would think it would be promise that our favorite organizations would try to win every year. Then again, that's what the Buffalo Bills have been doing for the last 15 years and well, the results have not been so pretty. So maybe its a good idea for the long term health of an organization to raze the fields every now and then.

When it comes to fantasy sports, you don't owe nothing to nobody. You paid your league fee and if you want burn it to the ground with an eye on more fruitful days be my guest. Like you said, its probably dependent on your league format, but I can see ways to accomplish either draft formats.

In a keeper snake draft format I would probably announce my intentions to tank the moment I knew I was going to pursue that strategy. If that's in July, its a fire sale. If its in May, then I start letting assets go in calculated manor. If I look at my team during draft prep and see no way to compete (a rare, but possible situation) I'd announce it right at the draft then proceed to draft a team that has a very specific theme. Maybe I'd draft a team composed entirely of Yankees and Mets (an all out declaration of tanking). Maybe I'd draft a rainbow team of equal parts White, Black, Hispanic, & Asian players. Then again maybe I would just draft a team that ensured maximum chaos starting in the first round with middle relief and go from there. The point is, I'm not going to hide anything.

In an auction league I'd be much sneaker. If it was a season long plan, I'd head into the draft with the plan of bidding up every player that I could. If I wound up paying $45 for Wil Myers so be it. I can always just drop him later on and rebuild a team off of the waiver wire. But at that point everyone would be wondering why everyone on the waiver wire is so damned expensive and why they are stuck with the team that they have. Then at the end of the year I would keep nobody and head into the next draft with the flexibility to not be outbid. A mid year tank job would be your standard trade off the best players for cheap ones, but that's not funny or interesting.

Really, any strategy that I undertook to tank would be designed to elicit the maximum amount self-righteous condemnation possible. I would love nothing more for other members of my league to seethe and boil over in disgust in email chains. I want the other owners to be so angry with me that are openly calling for my resignation from the league, because they don't have the testicular fortitude to suggest my expulsion. 

After all, I paid my league fees and maybe being the most hated owner is the kind of fantasy that I enjoy.

Josh

Every fantasy sports league needs a heel. You should take it all the way and give a pro wrestling style diatribe to open the draft, labeling people's hometowns as "stinktowns."  Ultimately it would unite the league in their singular mission of not letting you win. ::Gary Oldman gravely voice:: "He's  the hero the league deserves, but not the one it needs right now.  So we'll hunt him, because he can take it. He's a silent hero, a watchful protector..." 

On a pro sports level, I can see why you'd ultimately root to tank for the long term future of the franchise, and also why that concept would make you cringe. The tank vs. non tank debate  over the Buffalo Sabres has become so insufferable, I think I'd rather watch Skip Bayless and Bill O'Reilly host a book club. The old guard is steadfastly against it but able to add a nice helping of finger wagging, moralizing and old man yells at cloud-ing. The younger, analytics savvy crowd are pro tank but practically trip over themselves to point out examples where finishing low to get a high pick has worked. Their insecurity is at Rivers Cuomo on Pinkerton level, and not anywhere near as chiming. And almost as creepy.  

I like your idea of above board tanking, but you risk the rarely employed fantasy sports trade embargo, used only for bots and players who offer you Lucas Giolito in a short term keeper league and try to sell you on "upside." These are the same people who lose at poker then complain the other players are "jackals" who "chase cards." Prospect potential in fantasy sports is sort of like rustproofing and undercoating on your car: fine buzzwords but no real practical value.  I think we've all spent long nights researching prospects, wasting roster spots, hoping for the next Clayton Kershaw.  More often than not, they turn out to be the next Daniel Bard. I feel there's a life lesson in there somewhere, and the sad walking away music from the Incredible Hulk should accompany it.

Baseball's a Helluva Drug

92? I didn't know they had D-linemen in baseball...

Like many Northeast baseball fans I found myself searching through the AtBat app looking for what Spring Training games might be available the first two days. Whether its this awful winter or my new obsession with Ken Giles and the Philly's bullpen I am Jonesin' for some baseball. And the strange thing is, I'm not the only one.

Take a look at some of the attendance numbers from the first Friday of Spring Training baseball:

Grapefruit League:

Twins at Rays - 4,148

Nationals at Braves - 5,936

Yankees and Phillies - 7,365

Tigers at Mets - 7,444

Marlins at Red Sox - 9,830

Cactus League: 

Rockies at Angels - 5,739

Giants at Rangers - 7,497

Reds at Cubs - 15,331

That's right. Over 15,000 people showed up to see Jon Lester throw 2 innings. The only "Baby Cub" to even make an appearance was Javier Baez. Unless you count Mike Olt and no one does.

Now, these might seem like meh numbers to a lot of people considering that the smallest parks in MLB hold around 37k and most parks draw at least 20k plus a night. But having spent a lot of time around a AAA team (Where many of the players who played today will wind up this season) I can tell you that crowds around and over 10k in the right sized ballpark are nothing to sneeze at. In fact you can really get a stadium rocking with those kinds of numbers and quite honestly you only get them on the weekends in the summer.

So what gives? Why are these Spring Training games so popular? It could be price. In a quick glance at ticket prices for these early games seem to be going for anywhere between $10-$40. Which might seem like a bargain at MLB prices, but exceeds anything that you would pay for a minor league game (once again where the vast majority of these players will wind up). 

Another possibility might be that Spring Training is played in baseball starved areas. I might buy that reason for the Grapefruit league in Florida if the Rays and Marlins weren't already within easy driving distance (especially considering that everyone in Florida drives 105 mph everywhere). Also laying low that argument is the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 average attendance was just under 18k per home game. That tells me that central Florida (home to the Grapefruit League) isn't baseball starved, its baseball indifferent. Now I understand that there are other factors that go into the Rays' poor attendance: their field is a converted convention center, I've read its in kind of a bad location, Florida is America's armpit (just repeating what I've heard), blah, blah, blah. But way more that 18k people turned out to see MLB players for a couple of innings and then minor league players for the rest on Friday. Why can't those people turn out for the Rays who have been a highly entertaining team to watch for the better part of a decade?

And don't even get me started in the Cactus League. The Diamond Backs play in downtown Phoenix and every Cactus League team has a facility nearby. I'll admit that I don't understand the American Southwest all that well (It's hotter than Satan's ass crack & there's no water. THERE'S NO WATER), but I do know what highways look like and if any of these facilities are more than an hour away from downtown Phoenix then feel free to take to internet and label me a moron. That town ain't baseball starved. That's all I'm trying to get at. So why on Earth did 15k people show up to a Spring Training game?

So as I sifted through possible explanations two commonalities remained on my screen. You know what Florida and Arizona both have a lot of? Old people. And you know who really likes baseball? Yep, old people. Who has lots of free time to take in an afternoon baseball game on a weekday? You guessed it, old people.

It seems so obvious now. But what does it really mean? Is it like other Spring Training stats and completely meaningless? Or is there more to it?

That MLB has the oldest fan base all the 4 major sports seems sort of odd considering how baseball is probably the best suited sport for the internet age. Its perfect for Twitter because there is plenty of time between action to fire off a snarky tweet about an awkward Ryan Howard swing or 2nd guessing a managers in game decision from a thousand miles away. Baseball has also been probably one of the more discussed sports in America and more words have been published than could ever be read. It was also the first sport to truly embrace advanced metrics and the internet has been amazing at spreading that gospel.

Unfortunately, young people tend to trend as stupid. I was young once, I know. Baseball is a game that requires patience and perspective. Something that your average teenager cannot even define let alone practice. Baseball is something that you love as a child, neglect as a teen (chasing booze, drugs, & tail are WAY more fun), and rediscover as an adult. And that's OK. You can't properly appreciate watching a player mature through his career until you have lived enough life to know that nothing lasts forever.

So numbers may tell us that the average baseball fan is trending older, but it might not be the canary in the coal mine some think it is. Games are on awfully late for children. Teenagers don't care about anything. In your 20-40's you're building a family, career, etc., but it seems like in your golden years, the game starts to make a little bit more sense. Like clockwork its there damn near every day for the better part of 8 months and its just plain fun to watch a child grow into an adult within the confines of an artificial environment. And when your forced to endure those long, harsh winters trying to rationalize to yourself why following the NFL is still OK or planning on which NBA team to follow next, you start to miss the stability that baseball provides.

My advice, just lean in to it. Enjoy being a child those first few weeks of Spring Training leading all the way up to opening day. After that its OK, if you miss some April & May games. Things start coming together in June and by July you'll know what you've got on your hands. By then you can settle in for August & September just in time for the Post Season. That's when the game really gets interesting.

How ARod Cheated Us All By Apologizing

Why Alex? Why?

Alex Rodriguez apologized to the New York Yankees. He apologized to Randy Levine for calling him the devil. He apologized to Joe Girardi being a distraction to the team, and he aplogized to the ghost of George Steinbrenner for sullying the Yankee name. ARod did all this while robbing all of us fans of one of the greatest commodities in all sports: a true sports villain.

The narrative of sports villainry is as old as sport itself. We are wired as humans to think in terms of us versus them. Its just the way we are. But in modern times we have satisfied this survival mechanism with our illogical love and devotion to sport and our teams. Take the scene around an Oakland Raiders game for example. That team rewrote the book on how to be bad the last few years, and yet fans still show up faithfully every Sunday in get-ups that seemingly belong onstage with GWAR. If you take a step back it doesn't look all that different from Braveheart, a fictional telling of a maybe real struggle for independence (us vs. them).

That's not the only place where we see the villain narrative in sports. It also appears the niche sports entertainment industry known as pro wrestling. Typically those narratives are pretty clear cut. You always know who the good guys and bad guys are, but in the "non-scripted" areas of sports entertainment the villain narrative can be a little blurred.

I think it was Bill Simmons who put forth the idea that this past Super Bowl was kind of unique in that most of America hated both teams. While I know why lots of people hate the Patriots (success breeds contempt), but for the Seahawks I can only figure its got something to do with how successful they are and how confident they are about it. Still it was two teams wearing the "sports villain" identity and America ate it up. Once again the Super Bowl was the most watched TV event in history (consistent with previous years trends, but still impressive). So maybe we like our villains a little more than we all want to admit.

Therein lies why I am so disappointed that Alex Rodriguez has tried to make amends with the Yankees. If ARod was really sorry for his perceived misdeeds he would have made nice along ago. Instead, like a modern day villain he tried to sue people for no reason. Once he exhausted all avenues (perhaps maybe even a vision quest) then he sat out for his time and now he wants to make nice. All he did by going that route was to neuter himself in the eyes of the Yankees and all of baseball.

I mean really, why should he even apologize now? After Brian Cashman called him fat and signed another thirdbaseman? After the Yankees tried to void has contract and don't want to pay his contractually negotiated milestone bonuses? After Jeter stopped returning his phone calls? (I'm assuming)

No, what ARod needed to do was to go full villain all over this thing. I have no doubt he has been busting his ass this off season to get ready to play baseball. Whatever the PED thing meant, ARod was always a physical specimen and he always worked. No one succeeds in baseball without it.

He should have put the target directly on the Yankees back. Alex knows that the Yankees are a collection of overpaid, aging vets who most people have already written off. He should have come out and said something like "I'm going put this team on my back and carry them back to October" and maybe just to jab them a little extra "I'll do what Jeter couldn't do last year". That would get all of our attention. If the "Hate Scale" on Arod is at like an 8 now, we'd be in uncharted territory after something like that. Like 25 out of 10 or something.

Alex should have come out with some more things like "Chase Headley is a great addition. We need some one to make up a little of Robinson Cano's production at second". Then maybe drop a "Maybe Cash and Joe don't want me to play, but its gonna be awfully tough when I'm hitting .350 in June as a part-time DH on a team 4 games under .500".

Then for good measure he should take Didi Gregorius under his wing. Let him know that "Everyone, the Yankees, the fans they all want you to fail. Except me. I got your back". Slowly but surely, ARod would be able to spread his evil entourage swaying one young player after another until he has gained control of the Yankees locker room.

At that point he could dare Cashman, Levine and Steinbenner to cut him. To send him home due the rest of that $60 mil to collect filling his time as he sees fit. Except that they won't be able to, because ARod will be the only thing separating the Yankees from the playoffs and a third straight year without any October baseball.

Oh how the baseball world would seethe. I would love to see Ken Rosenthal's bow-tie spin every time he got heated talking about ARod's resurgence. Or Dan Shaughnessy's finger wagging at the evil Alex Rodriguez. What about chattering heads on PTI or Around The Horn belly aching about how ARod is disgracing the game while mows through the record books?

And he could have had all that if he hits. If he doesn't hit, well then whats it matter? The Yankees are going to cut him anyway. If he's hitting .200 in June the Yankees will DFA him and he'll be at home collecting his checks anyway. No amount of apologies, public floggings or trips to Oprah's coach will change that. If he doesn't hit he's done.

In other words, Alex Rodriguez has got nothing to lose.

I want so badly to route for ARod to turn the baseball world on it head and deep down so do many of you. You just can't admit it yet. Unfortunately, we probably won't get it because ARod is going to walk into the Yankee clubhouse in February tail between his legs and take his beating. Not a fitting ending for one of the greatest sports villains of our time.