Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.1

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

Do we dare submit our predictions and succumb to the pressures of clickbait, newsworthiness and timeliness?  I say yes!  Who are we to flout the conventions of blogging.  here are my mildly unscientific predictions

AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Indians

NL West: Mariners

AL Wildcard game LA Angels over Chicago White Sox

NL East: Nationals

NL Central: Pirates

NL West:  Dodgers

NL Wildcards:  Marlins over Padres

ALCS- Red Sox over Mariners

NLCS- Nationals over Marlins

World Series-  Nationals over Red Sox in 6

AL ROY- Carlos Rodon

NL ROY- Kris Bryant

AL Cy Young-  Felix Hernandez

NL Cy Young- Jordan Zimmermann 

AL MVP:  Mike Trout

NL MVP:  Giancarlo Stanton 

Yes I realize picking against Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young is enough to warrant Lucy from the Peanuts "5 cents for Psychiatry" type of help, but he has to slow down sooner or later right? Zimmermann is the Joe Walsh of the Nationals staff, and Strasburg and Scherzer are Don Henley and Glenn Frey.  Sure Fry and Henley were the principals, but you don't have Hotel California without Walsh's solo.  

Uncle Bones

The true function of the internet is not to expose people to new ideas that they didn't know existed, its provide the content that reinforces the beliefs and interests that they already had. Oh and cat videos. Since no one writes any comments, clicks are the only feedback available. And we love feedback.

AL East - Baltimore Orioles

Rotation solid with sufficient young upside and the offense should be good enough to feast on a division of average to poor pitching.

AL Central - Chicago White Sox

Top 3 starters known commodities & will mix and match the rest. O unbalanced, but the top of the lineup will carry that team.

AL West - Seattle Mariners

Its an easy bandwagon to get on when you consider the questions that surround the rest of the division.

AL WC1 - Boston Red Sox

Line-up will mash, but back end of rotation will be in flux all year.

AL WC2 - Cleveland Indians

Only because a one game playoff between Francona and Farrell is what we as baseball fans deserve.

NL East - Washington Nationals

I mean, come on.

NL Central - Pittsburgh Pirates

This team does to many things right to mucking around that Wild Card spot forever.

NL West- LA Dodgers

This team will still get it done despite Don Mattingly.

NL WC1 - St. Louis Cardinals

I can never count them out.

NL WC2 - San Diego Padres

I think the edge the Cubs on Karma. Padres are clearly all in, Cubs are too reliant on young players.

AL WC Game - Red Sox

Not that Farrell deserves it more than Tito, they'll just hit and hit and hit...

NL WC Game - Cardinals

Been there, done that.

ALDS - White Sox v. Orioles

White Sox - Top 3 starters too much in a 5 game series

ALDS - Mariners v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I know pitching wins championships, but after Felix who do you really count on in that rotation? Plus Red Sox will be a wrecking crew by then.

NLDS - Pirates v. Dodgers

Pirates - Mattingly finally does them in.

NLDS - Nationals v. Cardinals

Nationals - Too much pitching. Too much offense.

ALCS - White Sox v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I like the White Sox, but I don't like them that much.

NLCS - Nationals v. Pirates

Nationals - As smart and tough as the Pirates are that Nats are just overwhelming

World Series - Nationals v. Red Sox

This is where the Red Sox starting rotation minus a huge move or 2 will be undone. A healthy Nats team can hang offensively and the pitching is just that much better.

The Washington Nationals as your World Series Champions!

AL ROY: Rusney Castillo (Betts used up his eligibility last season)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL MVP: Mike Trout

NL ROY: Joc Pedersen

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

I read your picks this morning and then went about my day so as to intentionally forget what you had written. I was amused to go back and see that we both had the Nats over the Red Sox in the World Series. Its like, "Yep, we're homers, but we're not that big of homers".

One take away that I had from this whole exercise was really thinking long and hard about the AL Central and coming away not liking any of the teams all that much. So much can go wrong for the Tigers and so much has to go right for the Tribe. The White Sox are really unbalanced and we didn't even mention the AL Camp Royals or red headed stepchild Twins. That division will be interesting and I wouldn't be shocked if the team that wins it only does it with 88 wins.

Now all we need is a title about naked celebrities and our attempt at click bate will be complete.

Josh

I had a tough time NOT picking the Cardinals for the NL Central.  Somehow they get it together every year, and a big piece in their lineup in Matt Carpenter is probably due for a bounce back, as is Wacha.  I know in September we'll be watching them close a 5 game gap in like 12 games and be sitting here saying "I told you so" as the pundits pontificate about how the Cardinals pump their fists on home runs THE RIGHT WAY and Normal Rockwell makes a painting about it

Can we talk about the random nature of the baseball playoffs for a minute?  After reading our predictions I realized that by the time we actually get to October, someone like the Reds will be on a run that no one saw coming, Felix Hernandez will be out for the year, and the A's will have traded half their roster.  We've seen wild cards win the past few years.  Ultimately the best team during the season isn't really rewarded for anything, and all it takes is a team getting hot at the right time.  I have no personal problem with this as it keeps fan bases engaged longer, but I've heard some lament that they'd rather see the truly best teams in the world series.  I don't know, isn't randomness what makes sports kinda fun?  

Part 2

Baseball's a Helluva Drug

92? I didn't know they had D-linemen in baseball...

Like many Northeast baseball fans I found myself searching through the AtBat app looking for what Spring Training games might be available the first two days. Whether its this awful winter or my new obsession with Ken Giles and the Philly's bullpen I am Jonesin' for some baseball. And the strange thing is, I'm not the only one.

Take a look at some of the attendance numbers from the first Friday of Spring Training baseball:

Grapefruit League:

Twins at Rays - 4,148

Nationals at Braves - 5,936

Yankees and Phillies - 7,365

Tigers at Mets - 7,444

Marlins at Red Sox - 9,830

Cactus League: 

Rockies at Angels - 5,739

Giants at Rangers - 7,497

Reds at Cubs - 15,331

That's right. Over 15,000 people showed up to see Jon Lester throw 2 innings. The only "Baby Cub" to even make an appearance was Javier Baez. Unless you count Mike Olt and no one does.

Now, these might seem like meh numbers to a lot of people considering that the smallest parks in MLB hold around 37k and most parks draw at least 20k plus a night. But having spent a lot of time around a AAA team (Where many of the players who played today will wind up this season) I can tell you that crowds around and over 10k in the right sized ballpark are nothing to sneeze at. In fact you can really get a stadium rocking with those kinds of numbers and quite honestly you only get them on the weekends in the summer.

So what gives? Why are these Spring Training games so popular? It could be price. In a quick glance at ticket prices for these early games seem to be going for anywhere between $10-$40. Which might seem like a bargain at MLB prices, but exceeds anything that you would pay for a minor league game (once again where the vast majority of these players will wind up). 

Another possibility might be that Spring Training is played in baseball starved areas. I might buy that reason for the Grapefruit league in Florida if the Rays and Marlins weren't already within easy driving distance (especially considering that everyone in Florida drives 105 mph everywhere). Also laying low that argument is the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 average attendance was just under 18k per home game. That tells me that central Florida (home to the Grapefruit League) isn't baseball starved, its baseball indifferent. Now I understand that there are other factors that go into the Rays' poor attendance: their field is a converted convention center, I've read its in kind of a bad location, Florida is America's armpit (just repeating what I've heard), blah, blah, blah. But way more that 18k people turned out to see MLB players for a couple of innings and then minor league players for the rest on Friday. Why can't those people turn out for the Rays who have been a highly entertaining team to watch for the better part of a decade?

And don't even get me started in the Cactus League. The Diamond Backs play in downtown Phoenix and every Cactus League team has a facility nearby. I'll admit that I don't understand the American Southwest all that well (It's hotter than Satan's ass crack & there's no water. THERE'S NO WATER), but I do know what highways look like and if any of these facilities are more than an hour away from downtown Phoenix then feel free to take to internet and label me a moron. That town ain't baseball starved. That's all I'm trying to get at. So why on Earth did 15k people show up to a Spring Training game?

So as I sifted through possible explanations two commonalities remained on my screen. You know what Florida and Arizona both have a lot of? Old people. And you know who really likes baseball? Yep, old people. Who has lots of free time to take in an afternoon baseball game on a weekday? You guessed it, old people.

It seems so obvious now. But what does it really mean? Is it like other Spring Training stats and completely meaningless? Or is there more to it?

That MLB has the oldest fan base all the 4 major sports seems sort of odd considering how baseball is probably the best suited sport for the internet age. Its perfect for Twitter because there is plenty of time between action to fire off a snarky tweet about an awkward Ryan Howard swing or 2nd guessing a managers in game decision from a thousand miles away. Baseball has also been probably one of the more discussed sports in America and more words have been published than could ever be read. It was also the first sport to truly embrace advanced metrics and the internet has been amazing at spreading that gospel.

Unfortunately, young people tend to trend as stupid. I was young once, I know. Baseball is a game that requires patience and perspective. Something that your average teenager cannot even define let alone practice. Baseball is something that you love as a child, neglect as a teen (chasing booze, drugs, & tail are WAY more fun), and rediscover as an adult. And that's OK. You can't properly appreciate watching a player mature through his career until you have lived enough life to know that nothing lasts forever.

So numbers may tell us that the average baseball fan is trending older, but it might not be the canary in the coal mine some think it is. Games are on awfully late for children. Teenagers don't care about anything. In your 20-40's you're building a family, career, etc., but it seems like in your golden years, the game starts to make a little bit more sense. Like clockwork its there damn near every day for the better part of 8 months and its just plain fun to watch a child grow into an adult within the confines of an artificial environment. And when your forced to endure those long, harsh winters trying to rationalize to yourself why following the NFL is still OK or planning on which NBA team to follow next, you start to miss the stability that baseball provides.

My advice, just lean in to it. Enjoy being a child those first few weeks of Spring Training leading all the way up to opening day. After that its OK, if you miss some April & May games. Things start coming together in June and by July you'll know what you've got on your hands. By then you can settle in for August & September just in time for the Post Season. That's when the game really gets interesting.

Max Scherzer, James Shields and The Buyer's Market

Oh, uhh... hmm.

Its mid January, two weeks away from the Super Bowl and the MLB Hot Stove has ground to a halt. Normally this wouldn't be much of a problem, except this year 2 of the top 3 starting pitchers available remain without teams or contracts. This sort of "closing time" shenanigans are normally reserved for the Ervin Santana's of the world and not a former Cy Young winner or a 3.50 ERA, innings machine staff leader. So lets take a look at what has happened so far to Max Scherzer and James Shields, and see if we can figure out what to expect going forward.

How did we get here?

For Max Scherzer we need to start with the reported 6 year $150 mil or so contract offer that he turned down back in Spring Training of last year. As usual, the Detroit Tigers made a very competitive offer to one of their own. Had the Red Sox offered anything near that to Jon Lester in March of last year, they'd be no 'Cespedes for the Rest of Us' or 'Hello Mr. Rick Porcello'. All the same, its kind of hard to blame Scherzer for wanting to test free agency. Detroit was his 2nd organization so he was already used to the idea of forwarding his mail to a new city, and since Cy Young winners in their prime don't hit free agency every year Scherzer seemed a solid bet to surpass Detroit's offer. To his part, Scherzer posted a 127 ERA+ with a career high in strike-outs at 252 and innings with 220.1 in 2014. Something any team would want.

That's all well and good, but none of this has provided the seemingly near guarantee that Max's grandchildren will be able to send their kids to college by way of the Scherzer Trust. Part of the problem here is that when a player and his agent let a number like $200 mil start floating around, the market for that player's services becomes very limited. Take for example the current market setter Jon Lester. He wound up with that 6 year $150ish contract that Scherzer originally turned down and he really only had 4 potential and 2 practical suitors.

You would think that the teams in on Lester would also be in on Scherzer considering the numbers and the need, but it really hasn't turned out that way. The peripheral suitors of the Dodgers and the Giants have not been meaningfully linked to Scherzer and it makes a lot of sense. Signing a 30 year old pitcher for 6 years at $25 mil plus per year does not seem like a Andrew Friedman kind of thing to do and certainly doesn't fit into the way the Dodgers have gone about business this offseason. Similarly, that kind of signing doesn't remotely fit into the way the Giants go about building their teams, and its REAL HARD to argue with their results. The Cubs? Forget it. They already got their guy and a lot of factors went into all of that. And if the Red Sox weren't willing to go above 6yr/$140 for their 'own' guy then Scherzer at anything above that just isn't going to happen. John Henry loves his actuaries and since he signs the checks no pitcher over 30 is getting that kind of money.

Traditionally, the elephant in the room when it comes to big free agent signings has always been the New York Yankees. I'm sure that Scott Boras looked at the '14-'15 offseason and saw the Yankees as at least one of Scherzer's potential suitors. Unfortunately, for Boras, Scherzer and Scherzer's great-grandkids it hasn't panned out that way so far. Even with a rotation full of question marks, the Yankees seem to be pretty quiet on Mad Max. 

The Yankees reluctance to dive in head first on Scherzer make a lot of sense when you look at the whole picture of their current situation. Their payroll heading into this season is at nearly $212 mil which is right around twice that of the MLB average and well above the current luxury tax threshold. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=NYA) And while the Yankees financial commitments fall off pretty quickly in the next few years, most of Brian Cashman's moves this offseason have been geared towards making the Yankees a younger and more flexible team (Credit where credit is due; Cashman is a very good GM). It just doesn't make a ton of sense considering the rest of the Yankees' offseason that they would get involved in another long term, high priced commitment to a player on the wrong side of 30.

While James Shields did not have an opportunity to turn down a contract as lucrative as the one Scherzer spurned, he does face a very similar situation. Early in the offseason, the talk was that once Lester signed, Shields would find a home shortly there afterwards. That never panned out as Shields's team has floated a 5yr/$100mil expectation which wouldn't seem bad for a pitcher of his pedigree if he wasn't entering his age 33 season. Few of the Scherzer suitors have been seriously linked to Shields at those kind of numbers, although a mystery team (Houston Astros???) has reportedly put a 5/$110 offer on the table. For an in depth look at the James Shields market take a look at The Curious Case of James Shields post that I wrote back in December.

As if the obvious and reported on factors of the 2014-2015 offseason weren't enough to cloud the prospects of both Scherzer and Shields, there are other elements at play here that have created a very unfavorable buyer's market for these two free agents. One issue that both of these players are facing right now is the increasingly understood reality around baseball that paying a player, especially a pitcher big time money into their mid 30's rarely pans out in the best interest of the team. The Red Sox live and die by this strategy. Piggybacking off of that is general downward trend of offense that has been happening league wide. Sure, everyone wants a shutdown 'ace', but with the league average ERA having dipped below 4.00 for the first time since 1992 you don't have to shell out huge bucks for a pitcher who is just above average. (www.fangraphs.com) If you have the time take a look at baseball-reference.com's pitching top 10s and see how many of those pitchers are either still on their rookie contracts, arbitration eligible or signed to very team friendly contracts. Also, for shits and giggles ask yourself how many of those pitchers are over 30 vs. under 30 and then drop me a comment telling me how badly you want your team to pay Scherzer or Shields $25 mil when they are 36.

But, but, but wait it gets worse! While these 2 high pedigree pitchers north of 30 are searching for the right matches, take a look at the free agent pitcher class coming in the 2015-16 offseason. First up is Johnny Cueto who is coming of a season where he threw 243.2 innings to a 160 ERA+ and 242 Ks. BTW, he will be 30 in the 2016 season. Next is Jordan Zimmerman who owns a career 120+ ERA (slightly better career wise than Scherzer) and will also be 30 in 2016. Similarly Doug Fister hits free agency next year with a career 120+ ERA, but will be 32 in 2016, which is eerily similar to Shields if you pretend for a second that Shields hasn't been good for 200+ innings for 8 straight years. How about David Price? 31 years old in 2016 and the owner of a career 121 ERA+ and a Cy Young, but in 2014 between 2 team he threw nearly 250 innings with 271 K's. Oh, and we can't forget about Jeff Samardzija. While his career numbers aren't all that spectacular he has thrown for over 200 innings and 200 K's the last 2 years and will be 31 in the 2016 season. In addition to these topish level 30ish pitchers the following very solid to up and coming options will also be hitting the market: Rick Porcello (27), Mike Leake (28), Mat Latos (28), Hisashi Iwakuma (35), Yovani Golardo (30), Ian Kennedy (31) and Wei-Yen Chen (30). Not to mention a few former Cy Young winners in Tim Lincecum (32) and R.A. Dickey (41) and quite possibly Zack Greinke(32). Considering the shear glut of option on the horizon, its not hard to see why teams might be reluctant to shell out $200 mil to a guy like Max Scherzer when pitchers of very similar projections are about to flood the market and drive down prices.

What can we expect now?

The reality of this new buyer's market has to be setting in with both the Scherzer and Shields camps. What will be interesting to see is how each of these players respond to this new reality. By now you've probably heard the "Pillow Contract" talk that has surfaced around both these players, but don't buy into that idea. Shields is too old (only in baseball player terms) to be taking on a 1 year deal in hopes of re-establishing his value, while Scherzer won't be doing himself any favors by joining the free agent crowd next offseason.

So, its really going to come down to exactly what each one of these players want to get out of the remaining years of the baseball careers. You will never read a negative word here about a player who chose to take all the money he could when it was available. Baseball players have very short careers relative to the rest of us and when your skills are worth tens of millions of dollars you have every right to cash in on it while you can. But if that was really the case, then you would have to think that James Shields would have already jumped all over that 5yr/$110 that we all heard to much about. 

Lets be real, both these players have been winners for much of their careers and they know the value of that.  Both Scherzer and Shields are in line to make more money than they could ever spend regardless of where they wind up so why wouldn't they want to join a team that gave them the best chance to win. The contenders that we already mentioned (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, and Cubs) aren't likely to offer the kind of money both of these players are looking for. So we are left with a few other teams that could stretch to spend the money needed, but its unclear exactly how far these teams might go, Included in this group are the Blue Jays, Tigers (Scherzer's got a bit of history there), Angels (stretched pretty far already) and the Cardinals (we've all heard it, but I don't buy it). 

While both of these players might be able to get close to the money they are looking for from teams like the Astros or Diamondbacks, they may be looking for more than just a paycheck. For Shields to go to a team with a consistent shot at winning he may need to look for a contact more in the 3yr/$60mil area. For Scherzer to play for a contender he could certainly land a Cliff Lee like 5yr/$125-6/$150 or slightly more to basically choose where he wants to play for the next 5-6 years. Even though both their agents want to deliver headline grabbing type of numbers, don't underestimate the value of working someplace that you enjoy. When you are already talking about making more money than you can spend in one lifetime, I would think that the value of enjoying your career would mean even more. Then again I make less money in a year than these guys make in a game so its hard to fully understand what shapes their decision making.

For the sake of pure speculation, I'll throw down a few guesses here. I still think that Max Scherzer will sign with the Houston Astros to the tune of about 6yrs/$165mil with options. Boras won't allow him to sign for anything less that Lester and the Astros have money to spend and are closer than people think. Shield I think will take something close to that 3yr/$60mil to play for a contender. If that's his number then the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays and even Dodgers are definitely in the picture and will provide him with the opportunity to win every year. Otherwise he can take all the money he can and go to Arizona and hate the game for the last few years of his career.

Neither of these gentlemen have easy decisions in front of them. The money they want is out there, but they certainly have to weigh the value of winning in the equation. Some guys are perfectly fine to punch the clock, collect their check and go home, but most baseball players aren't wire that way. After all, Andrew Miller went on record as saying he felt like it was his duty to get the biggest payday he could. Well, as you may have hear he turned down bigger money from the Astros to go to the Yankees. Miller knew he would make his money one way or another, but he chose the chance to win above all else. If Scherzer and Shields feel the same way then we may have a few more surprises left in the Hot Stove season.

Stephen Strasburg Available?!? Not So Fast

Don't Look Directly Into His Eyes

No sooner had the news of Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals agreeing to a 7yr/$210 mil contract did the speculation begin on what will the Nats do with all the extra starting pitching. Rumors have been circulating all winter around Jordan Zimmerman and Doug Fister, but no one seems to be willing to meet Washington's asking price. But now that the Nationals have 2 bona fide "aces" on their staff, the baseball world have become enthralled with the possibility that wunderkind Stephen Strasburg may now be available for trade.

There aren't very many teams in baseball that would turn their noses up at acquiring a pitcher of Strasburg's ilk. He's entering his age 26 season (prime time for baseball players) without too much mileage on that right arm (he did miss a year for TJ surgery though). Plus we all know about the legend of that triple digit heater. Numbers wise he's solid with a career 128 ERA+, 10.3 K/9 and 2.84 FIP. Strasburg is also coming off of his first 200+ inning season (215) with 242 K's. If he's not an "ace" now then he's certain one in the making.

And although he is represented by Scott Boras (who just netted Scherzer a cool $210 mil), Strasburg is signed for the next 2 years. This year he'll make $7.4 mil in his second to last year of arbitration eligibility. If you figure that David Price (former Cy Young winner) just got a hair under $20 mil in his final year of arbitration, Strasburg figures to wind up in the $15 mil area next year depending on how 2015 goes. Not a terrible price for a 2 year pitcher with his kind of numbers and pedigree.

Its after 2016 that things get a little harry. There's nearly no chance that Strasburg signs any sort of extension before free agency. I don't care is he's traded to the Jesus Christ AllStars and makes half of his starts on the other side of the Pearly Gates, he's going to the highest bidder in 2017. So any team looking to acquire him would need to sacrifice probably 2 of their best top level prospects in order to bring him to town for only 2 years. Billy Beane is the only GM that I can figure that would be willing make that kind of deal and he might just be out of those types of trade chips.

Hypothetically speaking, lets say that Strasburg would be open to an extension in Spring Training of this year. We'll assume that he's playing 2015 at $7.4 mil so any extension would buy out his final arbitration year. So how about a 6 year extension (buying out 1 arbitration year + 5 FA years) at a market rate of $25 mil per year? That sounds about right, a 6yr/$150 mil deal that will take him through his age 32 season. Looking at that number I can tell that there is no way he's taking that deal, but its a hypothetical. I could throw out a billion dollars as a figure, it won't matter here.

So in this fantasy world, a team has just traded a chunk of the quality in their farm system for 7 prime years of one of the most highly regarded starting pitchers in all of baseball. What can they expect? It's an imperfect tool, but according to baseball-reference.com his top 5 (in order) age 25 comps are as follows:

1. Jim Bouton - Posted 1 ERA+ season above 100 after turning 25 & basically done in MLB at 31yo

2. Mark Prior - Age 25 WAS HIS LAST SEASON

3. Chris Sale - Currently age 25 and probably better than Strasburg right now and lefthanded

4. Tim Lincecum - 2 Cy Young before 25. 2 season of an ERA+ above 100 after 25

5. Rob Emslie - Pitched in the 1880's; little value here, but was done pitching after 26

And rounding out the top are a few more familiar faces:

6. Ron Darling

7. Stan Bahnsen

8. Roy Oswalt

9. Ewell Blackwell

10. Josh Beckett

There are a lot of names of pitchers there who threw awfully hard then just stopped throwing all together. The book is still out on Chris Sale, but I don't doubt that there would be a lot of teams out there wouldn't extend him at the hypothetical numbers I put out there today. Really the only 2 pitchers on that list that might come close to being worth that type of extension would be Oswalt and Beckett assuming the deal expired after their age 32 seasons.

That's not to say that Strasburg won't take that next step this year and dominate MLB for the next 7 years. Its certainly possible. But there is also a pretty decent history there that says he's just as likely to flame out and be a reliever by the time he's 30. Its an awful lot to spend money wise and prospect wise just to take that chance.