Its Time to Overreact About the Cubs

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

We made the right decision Jon. We did. 

Josh

Going back to early season overreacting, are the Cubs sounding the alarms already?

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/29745/cubs-offense-in-need-of-help

This is just feeding the crowd who wanted Bryant to start with the team. However, the article specifically seems to be highlighting that they have trouble scoring with guys in scoring position. Hitting with RISP tends to even out over a bigger sample size. Remember how the cardinals basically rode a high BA with RISP (specifically by Allen Craig) to a World Series then couldn't recreate it? RISP means guys hit to get on. As Rizzo says in the article keep getting on base and the RBIs will come. 

That's not to say putting a guy who hit over .300 in the minors in your lineup wouldn't help your offense. It would. And he will be there soon enough as has been discussed at length. Doesn't guarantee he'd hit with RISP though or solve that problem. To me, It's not really worth pushing the panic button on April 11th.  However, panic sells, especially in bigger markets with fragile fan bases. Gotta get those early season clicks somehow, he says while winking at the camera.

Uncle Bones

Its important here to note the difference between the Cubs sounding the panic bell and the Cubs/baseball media creating the panic narrative out of thin air. I know that you know the difference and basically pointed it out above, but I think us baseball types (yes, we're baseball types now. It needed to be said) may have assumed something about the Cubs that wasn't necessarily true. So without going into the unreasonable nature of hand wringing over .0185% of the season lets talk about the offense that the Cubs actually hit the ground with to start 2015.

1 Dexter Fowler CF - Career OPB .365 - Serviceable, but not stand-out for a lead off hitter and at age 29 not likely to get much better.

2 Jorge Soler RF - Only 23 years old. I can put his number here, but they don't mean anything. He might be really good, but he's just as likely to need some time to be really good.

3 Anthony Rizzo 1B - In 2014 as a 24 year old posted a 151 OPS+ in 616 PA's. Kid's a stud. We should be annoyed that the Red Sox traded him, but him for... Wade Miley... but eh... I still like the team they have now.

4 Miguel Montero C - Has not posted an OPS+ above 100 since 2012. He's 31 now and still a catcher. He is not who you want in the clean-up spot.

5 Starlin Castro SS - 25 yo, career OPS+ of 99, and if the Cubs were really that high on him they wouldn't have traded for Addison Russel and we wouldn't be hearing rumors about him going to the Padres

6 Chris Coghlan LF - Has a career OPS+ of 100 despite only having 2 season about 100: 2008 & 2014. And he's 30 this season. If the Cubs are lucky he's an average player. If they're lucky...

7 Mike Olt 3B - Other than just keeping 3B warm for Bryant, Olt's other claim to fame is having never hit about .200 in any season in his career. I'm sorry, but he has shown nothing to demonstrate that he is a major league hitter.

8 Pitcher Spot - The numbers say hitting the pitcher 8th is the best way to go. I'm glad Joe Maddon will actually do it day in day out and not just pay lip service to the idea, but for our purposes lets be generous: whoever hits here has a .200 average.

9 Arismendy Alcantara 2B - A fantasy darling this spring, but at 23 has done nothing to prove that he's an everyday hitter. You want more evidence? He hits 9th for the Cubs. I rest my case.

My take away from all this? The Cubs line-up is just plain not that good. Their top 3 is pretty good, but the Cubs could do better than Fowler in the lead-off spot and Soler is no sure thing this season. Miguel Montero is not the 4 hitter on a winning team. From there they go from average to abysmal quick. So it shouldn't be a huge surprise that the Cubs are struggling to score runs. They have one stud, some more or less average veterans and a bunch of youngsters who haven't carried their weight as of yet.

Bryant slotting into the 4th spot and sending Montero, Castro, Coghlan down and Olt to anywhere else will definitely help, but looking at that line-up for what it is, I understand why Theo and crew are OK waiting out those 2 weeks or so. Unless 2 or 3 of those youngsters take a huge step forward, the Cubs are still a "wait till next year" team. 

BTW if you Google "Cubs lineup" this is what you get. Look at Manny's mugshot. WTF???

Josh

Very interesting points.  So clearly the Cubs were so hyped they were actually overvalued.  Seems to happen every year.  What is the cause of this?  Do writers just appreciate a good story?  People WANT to believe in the Cubs, but it seems it was beyond statistical reasoning.

Uncle Bones

Baseball is the American sport of where narratives find their home. From its inception it has come alive in the minds of millions through the written word. When baseball first started the only way to keep abreast of the results was from the daily paper, a then thriving form of media. Next came the radio, which allowed for fans to follow a game without being in attendance, but if you missed a game the write up and the box score were still in featured prominently in the next day's paper. Then TV, internet, podcasts and so forth, but reading and writing about baseball is still a major part of how the sport is understood. It was "America's Pastime", because at a time it was something that you could discuss with any one from your community because it was regularly presented in the media of the time and it was relatively easy to keep on top of whether you were interested or not.

So for fans and media types to latch on to the story of the 2015 Cubs is not all that surprising. The years of failure, plus the organizational stewardship of Theo Epstein, plus the eccentric yet media friendly Joe Madden, plus the promise of youth, plus the addition of an "Ace" had everyone all amped up on the North Sides "Lovable Losers". The angle that fascinates me the most about the Cubs obsession is that how much the White Sox are an all but forgotten Chicago team. Its not like the Yankees & Mets where one team has been around for way longer and has won way more in its history. Its not even really like the situations in Los Angeles or the Bay Area. For whatever reason, the Cubs are the Chicago team that really generates the narrative. Both the Cubs and the White Sox were founded in the 19th century. Both teams won early on in the history and not much sense then. And while the White Sox took home the WS hardware in 2005 you never heard anything about them being cursed even though they managed to go 88 years between titles. 

So the Cubs clearly have a special place in America's consciousness and this always lend itself to a runaway narrative. 

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.2

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Uncle Bones

To me, saying that baseball should have LESS playoff teams because you want to see the 2 teams with the best record in the World Series is kinda like arguing that gay marriage should be illegal because being attracted to a person of the same sex might be contagious and that the science is still out on that one because no one has done the research yet. In other words, its absurd. Its also like saying that there are too many billboards at the stadiums as if teams shouldn't be trying to maximize their returns at every opportunity.

Let me remind you and anyone who might read this that the MLB season is 162 games long with each team playing 81 home games. Its not easy work getting butts in those seats and eyes on those games day in day out. Going to a baseball game is not an inexpensive proposition and sitting through 162 3 1/2-4 hour baseball games on TV is no treat either, ESPECIALLY when you are watching a team that is either not competitive or not competitive enough so for a shot at the post season.

This is compounded when you think about how regional of a sport baseball is. Yes, the Yankees, Red Sox, and to an extent the Braves have done a great job at expanding their national appeal, but very few people outside of Houston are Astros fans. Same goes for the Royals, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, etc. The longer into the season fans of these teams are able to stay engaged in their team the better. Not only is it the best thing for business, but its the best things for the fans relationships with those teams.

Our defending American League Champion Kansas City Royals are a prime example of this. Before our time the Royals were often considered the AAAA team for the New York Yankees as so much of their talent wound up in NY before it had a chance to win in Kansas City. Then they held on to players in the '80's (when baseball put in ALCS & NLCS) and won, but then in our lifetime we say the same thing happen again. Carlos Betran, Johnny Damon, Zack Grienke, the list goes on, shipped out of town because the Royals didn't want to spend the money on players when they weren't going to compete. Then what happened in 2014? Bolstered by a trade that brought in Major League talent, the Royals hung in it all the way to end, got hot in the playoffs and the rest his history. If there was not 2 Wild Card spots and maybe only 2 teams from each league made the team then Shields would have been dealt and the Royals would have been rebuilding again.

More playoff spots means more teams in contention, more eyes on the product and more fans maintaining an interest year after year. Seems like a smart strategy for a sport that has an average fan base the sits right around the mid 50's. But here's a question for you. Right now MLB has 5-ish playoff spot per league. Too many to some, but still much less than the NBA or NHL and only 1 less that the NFL. How many playoff teams is too man? Sure long term fan engagement is great, but how excited are most fans when their team locks down the 8-seed in the NBA? I tend to follow a lot of Boston media and some folks are wondering whats up with the Celtics approaching the 8-seed in the East. I know the Celts are rebuilding, but is it that bad that the team might be ahead of its time frame? And does sending half of the conferences' team to the playoffs cheapen the whole experience?

Josh

As a lifelong hockey fan, I can say throwing 16 teams in the playoff mix is nothing short of awesome. It differs from the NBA in the sense that low seeds regularly have a chance. Bottom seeds have made it to the cup, and won it. But hockey is different, they've had multiple teams come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the playoffs.  Remember when the Red Sox did that it was a huge story, but it actually has happened in hockey enough to the point where it's a fun story, not a monumental one.  

That said, the length of baseball games doesn't lend itself to more playoff games.  I love a good 5 hour late october slog as much as any baseball stalwart, but that doesnt play to the casual fan. Plus when your team is in the playoffs, it's a different vibe sport to sport.  Overtime hockey is, in my opinion, the only thing that matches the anxiety, dread, and excitement  of late inning playoff baseball. Baseball's "slowness" just lends itself to heightened wonder and anxious pacing in the playoffs.  The "slow" moments are building up to one moment where everything can change (Cue Don Henley's "in a new york munute...oohh we wooo...) If the Red Sox had to play MORE games in October, do you really think you could stomach that?  Probably, but you might have some explaining to do when you walk into work the next day wearing one shoe and 3 day scruff going.  

In regards to your Shields comment, did the pundits who bashed the Royals for that trade ever double back on their words?  Or did they just slink away like the guy who starts a fight and lets his friends finish it?  The whole argument against it was the years of control of Wil Myers.....who the Rays recently traded. That trade proved to me that snap judgments on organizational moves are good for sound bites and tweet headlines in the 24 news cycle, but they take years to play out and truly evaluate.  

Uncle Bones

The fact that baseball has only had 1 team to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series says two things. One of which being that there just haven't been nearly the same number of playoff series that hockey and basketball have seen. And two, the difference between good teams and good enough teams is probably pretty wide.

Now imagine if 8 teams from BOTH the National League and the American League made the playoffs in 2014. How excited are you right now thinking about a 5 game series between the Angels and the Yankees and the Nationals and the Mets. That's right, both NY teams would have made the playoffs as 8 cedes and both teams would have gotten snuffed out like a spider in a day care. And if that's not bad enough consider that the 7 & 8 cedes in the NL both would have had a 79-83 record. All that to add another week and a half to a season that already ends in early November. Eck...

I do think its funny that you brought up having a rooting interest in October baseball. I remember in September of 2013 as the Red Sox marched towards the playoffs thinking about how my life was about to change in ways I wasn't prepared for in the next month. Sure enough, there I was arguing with strangers about the proper application of runner interference & texting you to discuss the Sox bullpen situation while at my wife's birthday dinner. October baseball does things to me and not all of them are good.

As far as grading trades go, talking heads gotta make noise (its why they're there), but its impossible to grade a trade when it happens, 24 hours after it happens, a whole year after it happens. Baseball is the ultimate long game. Its one of the reasons why advance stats took hold here first. There are a lot of games and players can spend a lot of time in an organization. So while its tempting, and some times necessary (if its your job) to pass judgement on a single transaction moments after it happens everyone knows you're just talking to be heard.

Now for fun, almost 3 years later tell me who won this trade:

Red Sox acquire Allen Webster, Ruby De La Rosa, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Jerry Sands & James Loney

Dodgers acquire Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett & Nick Punto

Red Sox also sent $12 million. 

Who won? 

Part 3 

ICYM pt.1

Baseball Getting the Business End

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

If you kids don't get your sh*t together I'm replacing all of you

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Uncle Bones

Since we seem to be trending towards the business side of things here a bit check out this link to Forbes valuations of all the MLB franchises:

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/#page:1_sort:0_direction:asc_search:

Granted, this is only a snapshot of an organization's financial health, but I'm still curious if any of these numbers jump off the page at you. (Beyond the $ values which are largely hypothetical)

Pay particular attention to the teams who are operating in the red this season. A few of them are floating right around breaking even, but a some others like the Phillies, Tigers & Blue Jays are operating at major losses.

Does MLB owe it to its consumers to ensure that these franchises have a long term plan to get in the black? Or is it really OK for an owner or ownership group to throw money around like they're Rick Ross at a strip club until they're like MC Hammer at the soup kitchen?

Josh

I feel like you were lofting a Detroit poverty joke over the plate for me, but I am going to Joey Votto that one and let it go by, hoping to earn the walk.  

I always find the idea of "owing" consumers interesting. What DOES a team owe it's fans in general?  Going back to the tanking debate, some might say that the team owes it's fans the best product they can put on the field night in and night out. OR does the team owe them long term sustainability, which is what tanking is working toward?  I tend to agree with the latter.  Earlier in the year Buster Olney pointed out that Joe Girardi hit Jeter second in the lineup due to "organizational pressures."  In that case, did the team owe it's fans the best line up possible, or did it owe them the ability to watch a legend go out on his own terms?  The line is murky at best, totally open ended at worst.   

That wasn't a filibuster, but more of an establishment of how debatable the idea of "owing" your fans something is.  I do believe in owing them long term sustainability.  I live in Buffalo, and until Terry Pegula fracked his way into our hearts, we lived with a constant dread of the Buffalo Bills moving. Once the Bills started playing games in Toronto, the dread went from minor anxiety to full blown freakout.  Much like the "presence" in the current horror hit It Follows, the fear was ongoing, ever present and impossible to shake. When the Pegula deal was announced, grown men called into the local radio station crying tears of joy. So does a team owe it's fans peace of mind?  Ideally yes, but this idea is better in theory than in practice.  Just ask San Diego Chargers and St Louis Rams fans how they feel right now.  

In regards to the financial numbers, if anything I took away that baseball is in the age of parity.  Look at the Royals and Athletics, two contenders last year operating with low payroll and showing financial health.  The Mets, Phillies and Yankees appear in the top 10 franchises, further proof that money buys you a chance but guarantees you nothing in baseball. Parity rewards fans. The NFL probably likes the Pats and Seahawks playing in the super bowl, but poll casual fans outside of those two fan bases and I'd wager you hear about how they're tired of seeing those teams in the finals. Who WASN'T excited watching the Royals last year, you know? 

Uncle Bones

Being a Bills fan the last 10 years was sort of like having a loved one being diagnosed with a terminal illness. We felt like it was just a matter of time before they were gone, but we really didn't know when or how exactly we would deal with it. Then suddenly a pop-up billionaire swooped in with the miracle cure and here we are. Personally, I had already started the "moving on" process only to be sucked right back in. I'm still not sure how I feel about it given my other apprehensions surrounding the NFL, but I'm fairly sure I'll be tuned in come September.

I like to pretend that I can disassociate the emotion of being a fan with the business realities of professional sports, but it's not quite that simple. I think what surprised me the most about that list was the total valuation of all the MLB teams combined that fell somewhere around $36 billion give or take. Theoretically, should MLB be posted for public trading it would fetch around that number for an IPO, but I suspect it might creep up a little higher than that.

That's seems like a lot of money and it is, but it still less that half of what Facebook was offered for. That's crazy to me. MLB has an over 100 year history and has been an American establishment as long as any who is alive can remember. Facebook has been on the planet for the third of the time that you and I have been and I can't even hold it in my hand. I've never attended a Facebook, its not on TV, it only exists on the Internet and something tells me that in 40 years we won't be talking about the comment that Parker liked that Madison made about the picture Lily posted of her cat's birthday cake in the same way we still talk about 1975 World Series.

So yeah, baseball is a business and it's a big one, but there are bigger ones out there. I was also surprised to see that some teams didn't make money last year. I know that there are debt issues attached to that math, but what it reminds me is that you don't buy a sports team to necessary make money. Its kinda like the ultimate rich guy status symbol. You know you're rich when you own a team and so does everyone else.

That also says to me that if you cared enough to buy a sports team then you are probably a fan yourself. And as a fan you would want the team that you own to win as much as possible. I wouldn't want to own a loser. Some people might be fine with it, but it would piss me right off.

Keep that in mind when I own (sponsor) a slew of Little League teams. You'll just hear in the news that "Local man ejected from LL game again", but truth will be that I was just doing everything in my power to urge those little tykes to victory. Oh and also to grow my brand.

The Great Fantasy Tank

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

"You're staying in Charlie"
"But Skip, I'm done"
"You're staying in"

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

I had this thought about tanking in fantasy sports like the  Buffalo Sabres are doing now. They and the Arizona Coyotes are both tanking and they play each other twice within the next week.  it's like the reverse Stanley Cup.  The Connor McDavid bowl.   Like, if you knew Mike Trout was going back in the pool in a keeper league you were having a bad season, would you purposely sell off assets to get the top pick? That only works in snake drafts.  I suppose in auction you'd just have to free up a lot of salary.  And would it be worth it?  Would other owners take a moral high ground about it? 

Uncle Bones

To tank or not tank, that is the question.

On a real, professional level its a debate with no easy answer. Everyone wants to root for a winner and tanking is a strategy directly in conflict with that. But when the Indianapolis Colts threw a season away with Curtis Painter at QB they were rewarded with Andrew Luck and a prompt return to the status of perennial playoff team. On the surface (and as a Bills fan) it seems like an obvious choice, but when the vast majority of professional sports teams play in publicly funded stadiums, are given generous tax breaks, and derive income from those of us who root for laundry it complicates the picture. Shouldn't each team, every year put the best team forward possible? If we are owed anything as a fan, I would think it would be promise that our favorite organizations would try to win every year. Then again, that's what the Buffalo Bills have been doing for the last 15 years and well, the results have not been so pretty. So maybe its a good idea for the long term health of an organization to raze the fields every now and then.

When it comes to fantasy sports, you don't owe nothing to nobody. You paid your league fee and if you want burn it to the ground with an eye on more fruitful days be my guest. Like you said, its probably dependent on your league format, but I can see ways to accomplish either draft formats.

In a keeper snake draft format I would probably announce my intentions to tank the moment I knew I was going to pursue that strategy. If that's in July, its a fire sale. If its in May, then I start letting assets go in calculated manor. If I look at my team during draft prep and see no way to compete (a rare, but possible situation) I'd announce it right at the draft then proceed to draft a team that has a very specific theme. Maybe I'd draft a team composed entirely of Yankees and Mets (an all out declaration of tanking). Maybe I'd draft a rainbow team of equal parts White, Black, Hispanic, & Asian players. Then again maybe I would just draft a team that ensured maximum chaos starting in the first round with middle relief and go from there. The point is, I'm not going to hide anything.

In an auction league I'd be much sneaker. If it was a season long plan, I'd head into the draft with the plan of bidding up every player that I could. If I wound up paying $45 for Wil Myers so be it. I can always just drop him later on and rebuild a team off of the waiver wire. But at that point everyone would be wondering why everyone on the waiver wire is so damned expensive and why they are stuck with the team that they have. Then at the end of the year I would keep nobody and head into the next draft with the flexibility to not be outbid. A mid year tank job would be your standard trade off the best players for cheap ones, but that's not funny or interesting.

Really, any strategy that I undertook to tank would be designed to elicit the maximum amount self-righteous condemnation possible. I would love nothing more for other members of my league to seethe and boil over in disgust in email chains. I want the other owners to be so angry with me that are openly calling for my resignation from the league, because they don't have the testicular fortitude to suggest my expulsion. 

After all, I paid my league fees and maybe being the most hated owner is the kind of fantasy that I enjoy.

Josh

Every fantasy sports league needs a heel. You should take it all the way and give a pro wrestling style diatribe to open the draft, labeling people's hometowns as "stinktowns."  Ultimately it would unite the league in their singular mission of not letting you win. ::Gary Oldman gravely voice:: "He's  the hero the league deserves, but not the one it needs right now.  So we'll hunt him, because he can take it. He's a silent hero, a watchful protector..." 

On a pro sports level, I can see why you'd ultimately root to tank for the long term future of the franchise, and also why that concept would make you cringe. The tank vs. non tank debate  over the Buffalo Sabres has become so insufferable, I think I'd rather watch Skip Bayless and Bill O'Reilly host a book club. The old guard is steadfastly against it but able to add a nice helping of finger wagging, moralizing and old man yells at cloud-ing. The younger, analytics savvy crowd are pro tank but practically trip over themselves to point out examples where finishing low to get a high pick has worked. Their insecurity is at Rivers Cuomo on Pinkerton level, and not anywhere near as chiming. And almost as creepy.  

I like your idea of above board tanking, but you risk the rarely employed fantasy sports trade embargo, used only for bots and players who offer you Lucas Giolito in a short term keeper league and try to sell you on "upside." These are the same people who lose at poker then complain the other players are "jackals" who "chase cards." Prospect potential in fantasy sports is sort of like rustproofing and undercoating on your car: fine buzzwords but no real practical value.  I think we've all spent long nights researching prospects, wasting roster spots, hoping for the next Clayton Kershaw.  More often than not, they turn out to be the next Daniel Bard. I feel there's a life lesson in there somewhere, and the sad walking away music from the Incredible Hulk should accompany it.

Baseball's a Helluva Drug

92? I didn't know they had D-linemen in baseball...

Like many Northeast baseball fans I found myself searching through the AtBat app looking for what Spring Training games might be available the first two days. Whether its this awful winter or my new obsession with Ken Giles and the Philly's bullpen I am Jonesin' for some baseball. And the strange thing is, I'm not the only one.

Take a look at some of the attendance numbers from the first Friday of Spring Training baseball:

Grapefruit League:

Twins at Rays - 4,148

Nationals at Braves - 5,936

Yankees and Phillies - 7,365

Tigers at Mets - 7,444

Marlins at Red Sox - 9,830

Cactus League: 

Rockies at Angels - 5,739

Giants at Rangers - 7,497

Reds at Cubs - 15,331

That's right. Over 15,000 people showed up to see Jon Lester throw 2 innings. The only "Baby Cub" to even make an appearance was Javier Baez. Unless you count Mike Olt and no one does.

Now, these might seem like meh numbers to a lot of people considering that the smallest parks in MLB hold around 37k and most parks draw at least 20k plus a night. But having spent a lot of time around a AAA team (Where many of the players who played today will wind up this season) I can tell you that crowds around and over 10k in the right sized ballpark are nothing to sneeze at. In fact you can really get a stadium rocking with those kinds of numbers and quite honestly you only get them on the weekends in the summer.

So what gives? Why are these Spring Training games so popular? It could be price. In a quick glance at ticket prices for these early games seem to be going for anywhere between $10-$40. Which might seem like a bargain at MLB prices, but exceeds anything that you would pay for a minor league game (once again where the vast majority of these players will wind up). 

Another possibility might be that Spring Training is played in baseball starved areas. I might buy that reason for the Grapefruit league in Florida if the Rays and Marlins weren't already within easy driving distance (especially considering that everyone in Florida drives 105 mph everywhere). Also laying low that argument is the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 average attendance was just under 18k per home game. That tells me that central Florida (home to the Grapefruit League) isn't baseball starved, its baseball indifferent. Now I understand that there are other factors that go into the Rays' poor attendance: their field is a converted convention center, I've read its in kind of a bad location, Florida is America's armpit (just repeating what I've heard), blah, blah, blah. But way more that 18k people turned out to see MLB players for a couple of innings and then minor league players for the rest on Friday. Why can't those people turn out for the Rays who have been a highly entertaining team to watch for the better part of a decade?

And don't even get me started in the Cactus League. The Diamond Backs play in downtown Phoenix and every Cactus League team has a facility nearby. I'll admit that I don't understand the American Southwest all that well (It's hotter than Satan's ass crack & there's no water. THERE'S NO WATER), but I do know what highways look like and if any of these facilities are more than an hour away from downtown Phoenix then feel free to take to internet and label me a moron. That town ain't baseball starved. That's all I'm trying to get at. So why on Earth did 15k people show up to a Spring Training game?

So as I sifted through possible explanations two commonalities remained on my screen. You know what Florida and Arizona both have a lot of? Old people. And you know who really likes baseball? Yep, old people. Who has lots of free time to take in an afternoon baseball game on a weekday? You guessed it, old people.

It seems so obvious now. But what does it really mean? Is it like other Spring Training stats and completely meaningless? Or is there more to it?

That MLB has the oldest fan base all the 4 major sports seems sort of odd considering how baseball is probably the best suited sport for the internet age. Its perfect for Twitter because there is plenty of time between action to fire off a snarky tweet about an awkward Ryan Howard swing or 2nd guessing a managers in game decision from a thousand miles away. Baseball has also been probably one of the more discussed sports in America and more words have been published than could ever be read. It was also the first sport to truly embrace advanced metrics and the internet has been amazing at spreading that gospel.

Unfortunately, young people tend to trend as stupid. I was young once, I know. Baseball is a game that requires patience and perspective. Something that your average teenager cannot even define let alone practice. Baseball is something that you love as a child, neglect as a teen (chasing booze, drugs, & tail are WAY more fun), and rediscover as an adult. And that's OK. You can't properly appreciate watching a player mature through his career until you have lived enough life to know that nothing lasts forever.

So numbers may tell us that the average baseball fan is trending older, but it might not be the canary in the coal mine some think it is. Games are on awfully late for children. Teenagers don't care about anything. In your 20-40's you're building a family, career, etc., but it seems like in your golden years, the game starts to make a little bit more sense. Like clockwork its there damn near every day for the better part of 8 months and its just plain fun to watch a child grow into an adult within the confines of an artificial environment. And when your forced to endure those long, harsh winters trying to rationalize to yourself why following the NFL is still OK or planning on which NBA team to follow next, you start to miss the stability that baseball provides.

My advice, just lean in to it. Enjoy being a child those first few weeks of Spring Training leading all the way up to opening day. After that its OK, if you miss some April & May games. Things start coming together in June and by July you'll know what you've got on your hands. By then you can settle in for August & September just in time for the Post Season. That's when the game really gets interesting.

Reconciling The Closer

John Franco "The Closer"

If you are the kind of Fantasy Baseball owner who believes that Roto is the only way to go and that H2H players should just stick with Fantasy Football, this post is not for you. You're still welcome to read it and I hope that you do. You may even find some parts with which you agree. However, its written from a very H2H point of view. So, if you're mature enough to handle it without getting all judgmental join us for the ride. Otherwise, come on back a little later...

I had a friend in college that we nicknamed "The Closer". One of the reasons he drew that name was because he mistakenly aligned himself with a blood thirsty pack of hyaenas who got worked into a frenzy over the smallest hint of weakness. Oh, and also he routinely blew sure things.

Just about every "Closer" story went down the same way. Whether it was a food or beer run or late night with a particularly soused trollop, each time "The Closer" came into the picture he managed to mangle even the surest of things. What's worse is that he would cop to things he didn't even have to just to further cement the validity of the nickname. It got to point where it just made no sense at all.

Counting on "The Closer" to come through in any sort of way felt like watching a Sunday Night Baseball game when you're up by 1.5 pts in Head to Head and the only active player left in the match-up is your closer. You're just sitting there helplessly rooting against a narrow set of possible outcomes because you don't want to have to watch your guy go out there and do his job because if he fails you fail. And God forbid they trot him out without their even being in opportunity for a Save. Only bad things will happen.

Tell me how many other positions in all of fantasy sports are like this? None. No other position can swing from +8pts to -8pts in the course of one single play. Only the Closer can do that. Even the Kicker, the Goddamn dumbest position in Fantasy Football can't do that. Kicker misses a 21 yard kick down by 2 as time expires? Meh, no points for you. Better luck next time champ. But if a closer misses his spot by an inch, up by 1 with 1 on and 2 out? Buh-bye. You'd been better off his herpes flared up before the game and he was a scratch.

Take a moment to think back on your Fantasy Baseball history and try to remember a time when you were super pumped about a Closer you had on any one of you teams. Go ahead. I'll be here when your done...

Yeah, that's what I thought. Maybe you remember a time when one of your Closers had like a 45pt week, but you can't remember who it was can you? Then again, I'll bet you can tell me about the time a KRod meltdown cost you a playoff spot back in 2009. I can tell you all about how keeping Jonathan Broxton in 2010 was an absolute waste of a keeper spot, but I can't even tell you who any of my Closers were in the last 3 Fantasy Baseball seasons.

Those are some of the day to day problems with Closers. The other issue is that probably half of the teams in MLB have a closer situation that is in a perpetual state of flux. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox are remembered in part by the insane dominance of their closer Koji Uehara. Its easy to forget that Koji was signed only as a bullpen depth option that offseason and that Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, and even Junichi Tazawa got a crack at the role before injuries or ineffectiveness put the ball in Koji's hand in the 9th. Let me repeat, a team that won the World Series did so with their 4th closing option who ultimately had a stretch as dominant as any in baseball history.

So, please forgive me if I can't even be bothered to hide my seething contempt for Closers or Relief Pitchers when it comes to Fantasy Baseball (I'm sure many of them are very nice people in real life). All they ever do break your heart, get hurt, and force you to spend so much time on the waiver wire that your boss wants to know why you're always on you computer but never getting any work done. Despite all that, every season we go through the same challenge of trying to figure out which Closer we're going to curse out on a bi-monthly basis.

For me, I approach planning to fill my Relief Pitcher spot on my Fantasy Baseball team a lot like how I approach building my entire Fantasy Football team. Don't stress it, don't target certain players, and don't get caught up in the run. That Closer you reached for in your March draft might well wind up on mop up duty by May. And if you have a league that rewards Holds, then my goodness, why even bother with a Closer? Today's 8th inning guy is tomorrow's Closer and a top next week's trash heap.

The thing that probably irks my chain the most is that Relief Pitcher or Closer isn't really even all that real of a position. All infield positions are clearly delineated and assigned. The outfield in most fantasy leagues is somewhat murky, but outfielders are still outfielders. Nope, not pitchers. We have these guys we call "Starters" and usually they start baseball games, but sometimes in special playoff circumstances they come in for relief appearances. Or more often "Relief Pitchers" are called on to make spot starts. But regardless of when a pitcher enters a game, he is the only player manning that position at that time.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that pitchers are pitchers are pitchers. It shouldn't matter when they come into the game, they are still pitchers. There's no special roster spot for pinch hitters or defensive replacements. I don't have relief Second Baseman. Why should there be a special spot for "Relief Pitchers"? I know its an easy question for Roto players to answer, "Saves is a category. Starters don't get Saves". Well, nuts to you and your categories. The Save is barely even a real stat anyway.

Did you know, that the Save as a statistic is only 45 years old?  That's right, the Save is younger than the average baseball fan. This should be an easy rallying point for all those "baseball purists" out there to get behind, but no. They get all twisted up over the DH or fear of the impending pitch clock. (Quick aside; I spend a good part of my summer around the local AAA team. I will be covering how the pitch clock affects games) Really, the Save is the bastard cousin of the Win. People are wising up the W as goofy stat that the pitcher has little control over, so the Save's day of reckoning is coming.

Until that day, we will all have to live with the Closers and Saves the way that they are. Its possible that I can learn some sort of Zen technique when watching the 9th inning of a close game that will prepare me to accept that the universe will unfold as it should and that my Closer will throw strikes only if it is meant to be. Or maybe I'll finally just put up a chicken wire cage around my television so that I don't have to explain to my wife how that bottle "accidentally" left my hand again.

Because Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy is Fantasy

Let me start out by giving the proper amount of credit that is due for this picture. I didn't draw it, I guess the artist in the bottom right hand corner did. But my goodness. Just take a second to admire all that it happening in this masterpiece.

I chose this picture for my 2015 Fantasy Baseball primer because I feel like it nicely represents how I feel at the start of every season. High a top my fire breathing unicorn, a firm grip on my .50 cal Golden Eagle with its barrel is sizzling after a fierce battle and still ready for more.  Then, by mid season I'm scouring the waiver wire for help like its Sunday morning back in college and I'm cannibalizing roaches because the hangover's too much to bear.

I've done prep every way you can imagine. I've done old fashioned research and I've done mock drafts and I've done tiers. More than once I even created  my own "super-secret magic formula" to determine auction and draft values. I've done all this and more only to watch my careful calculations fall short when I'm beat by the league winner who calls me in May to ask if the Brewers are an American League team. (That particular league is a bit goofy, but long standing & worth the price of admission in slanderous emails alone)

That's not to say that I've never won money playing Fantasy Baseball. I have. Not as much as I'd like, but I've been good enough to play for free here and there. And I vastly prefer Fantasy Baseball to that soul-sucking roll of the dice America loves to dry-hump Fantasy Football. (Which I still do participate in, but mostly because I can send mass emails saying things that if they went public would prohibit me from running for political office)

Since predicting Fantasy Baseball is an inexact science I thought I'd take it in a different direction. Instead I'll be nominating 5 players for awards that I have entirely made up. Kind of like any of the MTV award shows, the WWE Hall of Fame or the NFL Honors. We'll reassess at some point this season when it makes sense (Because I have license to make it up as I go along, like DeflateGate).

So without further adieu:

Your 2015 MoBettaBaseball Preseason Award Nominees!!!

THE JOEY VOTTO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER YOU'LL GO BIG ON WHO WILL SINGLE-HANDEDLY DESTROY YOUR TEAM:

Miguel Cabrera - Miggy has been one of the all time greats up to this point in his career, but all the warning signs are there: a weakened Tiger's lineup, mounting injuries, age 32 season, the body of a bus driver. I like Miguel Cabrera a lot, but if you go to big with him this season you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Jose Bautista - Since 2010 Joey Bats has been one of the best and most consistent hitters in all of baseball. Except that in 2 of those 5 seasons he played less that 120 games. Coming off a big 2014 he could see a rise in auction price and ADP which for a player headed into his age 34 season could spell disaster.

Corey Kluber - I got nothing but love for Corey Kluber. I took him for $4 last year and rode him all the way to the league championship. But, he saw his innings jump by nearly 90 from 2013 to 2014 and 2 straight Cy Young worthy years while possible is awfully unlikely. I expect him to be a valuable pitcher next year, but if you get crazy for him and he winds up on the shelf for a prolonged period don't come crying to me.

Anthony Rizzo - People be lovin' them Anthony Rizzo this mock draft season. With the .286 BA, 32 HR, & 151 OPS+ he posted during his age 24 season in 2014 its not hard to see why. A second season like this in a Cubs lineup that features a lot of young up and coming talent and Rizzo could establish himself as a stud for years to come. However, its also possible that the Cubs lineup struggles with all of the young pieces that could find themselves in Chicago this summer, and Rizzo drives his numbers down trying to carry a team when he shouldn't have to.

Troy Tulowitzki - If you've ever owned Tulo in a Fantasy Baseball league then you already know. If you've never gone down that road, be my guest. Select the number one shortstop high in the draft or buy him at $30+ and see exactly what happens. Come back and let me know. Please.

THE CHRIS DAVIS AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL BE SUSPENDED AT SOME POINT THIS SEASON:

I'm not going to get to in depth on any of these guys in this category. I have no inside information regarding how these players go about preparing to do their very difficult jobs. I also pass no judgment on athletes who do things that most of us would do in a heartbeat if it meant multi-million dollar salaries and the praise & accolades from millions of people. I just chose 5 guys who I felt like might have something to prove. No accusations. No evidence.

Melky Cabrera

Brian Dozier

JD Martinez

Evan Gattis

Jay Bruce

THE DANNY SALAZAAR AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I WILL GET CARRIED AWAY WITH BIDDING ON DURING DRAFT DAY:

Mookie Betts - Betts flew through the Red Sox farm system like he was wearing suede in the rain. Even once he arrived in Boston he didn't look a bit out of place posting a 128 OPS+ in 213 plate appearances in his age 21 season.  He's young, he's good, and he's fun to watch. Worth every penny.

Kris Bryant - Oh my God!!! Kris Bryant is on the Cubs!!! The 2015 Cubs will fulfill the Back to the Future 2 proficy!!! Kris Bryant spells Chris with a K!!!

Carlos Carrasco - Great end of season. Tribe has a way of producing Cy Young winners. Always go go long on young pitching.

Yordano Ventura - Injuries and innings be damned. All I care about is a 24 year old pitcher who is coming of a 125+ ERA season in a pitchers park like Kauffman Stadium. Unfortunately, I won't be the only one.

Andrew Heaney - No one will see me coming here. I mean, how many guys in my league followed this offseason? Can't be that many. I'll slide in under the radar and steal Heaney. Just watch...

THE BRIAN WILSON AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO'S POST-SEASON ACCOLADES/FREE AGENT HUBBUB WILL WILDLY INFLATE THEIR DRAFT VALUE:

Andrew Miller - Andrew Miller started to get some attention during the Red Sox magical 2013 season. Then he broke his leg or something. But he came back nastier than ever in 2014 and was ultimately traded to the Orioles where he was filthier than a hot tub in a rental house. His big 2014 netted him a 4 year/$36 mil contract from the Yankees to be their set-up man, closer? I don't know exactly. What I do know is that all that popularity will likely result in him being drafted way to high.

Jon Lester - I bought Jon Lester last year in an auction league for $7. At the time everybody told me that I over paid. Well, how do you like me now? Jon Lester would have been the World Series MVP in 2013 if David Ortiz hadn't treated the Cardinals pitchers like they called up from Williamsport. It didn't translate into a draft bump the following year, but now people are believers. Obviously, Lester was great in 2014 and after things like the "Jon Lester Watch" his projected value only figures go way up. I've already starting seeing him on a lot of top 10 SP rankings.

Pablo Sandoval - Just like when pitchers go to Petco Park everyone assumes their ERA will drop by a whole point and they'll become instant fantasy studs, people tend to assume that when a hitter goes to Fenway they'll channel their inner Ted Williams. In addition to that way of thinking, he is still in that prime age range 27-32 and was the best available 3b on the market this year with the attention associated with that distinction. Enough owners in your league(s) will bid on the promise and turn a blind eye to the numbers that tell us that Sandoval may have already peaked at 24. (We all have that friend who peaked at 24. Their 30's are not pretty)

Eric Hosmer - People have been buying Eric Hosmer's potential for years. Only year after year they wind up a pocket full of salt for their trouble. Well, he once again snuck his way back into our hearts thanks to a deep Royal playoff run which featured him hitting .351 with a .983 OPS. Its starting to look like a lot of that promise being realized for the 25 year old first baseman which will lure everyone right back in like the Seirenes.

Yasmany Tomas - MLB has got Cuba on the brain. Part of it is all the hubbub over the apparent market values that teams earn when they hit on these Cuban players. That means teams are ready to drop big money on players who might be near MLB ready or might just be internet trolls (There's only one way to find out). The other factor in play here is how mysterious Cuba seems to all us Americans. We know its there. Their people keep showing up in Florida on rafts. Our grandparents may have once vacationed there, but we don't know anything other than its got old cars, great cigars and a baseball league in which many of us could earn a tryout. Some people get excited for the unknown. Then again some people get excited having their bangers & mash squashed by high heels.


THE EMILO BONIFACIO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL GET OFF TO A HOT START IN APRIL ONLY TO SINK BACK TO REPLACEMENT LEVEL IN MAY:

BJ Upton - No one wants BJ Upton to be bad. We all want him to be good. He could go on a tear in April carrying an otherwise destitute Braves team. Whether or not he sustains that hypothetical production determines whether he takes home the hardware in this category.

Marcus Semien - As of right now he is the likely starting SS for the Oakland Athletics. Billy Beane always looks crazy until he looks like a genius. Seems like a prefect storm for Semien to take off hot out the gate in the 2013 Jose Iglesias mold.

Michael Bourn - As a fantasy baseball commodity there is a lot not to like about Michael Bourn (I'm sure he's a perfectly fine person though). He used to be a good source of steals and average, but now he does none of that, and he bogs down an otherwise fun to watch Tribe team. It just makes too much sense that he would get off to an early season tear and trick all of us into picking him up thinking he's back.

Adeiny Hechavarria - Entering his age 26 season and benefiting from an improving Marlins line-up Hechavarria is poised for an early season surge. Then we'll hear a lot about how "He's figured something out" and "The pressure's off with that line-up". He also had a few hot streaks in 2014 where we started telling ourselves those very things.

Emilo Bonifacio - There's a reason this award is named after him. EMILO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE EDWIN JACKSON AWARD FOR VETERAN PLAYER WHO YOU'LL TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO DROP BY LATE APRIL:

Carl Crawford - The Craw-Daddy has always been a perplexing fantasy player. Once he was a young, promise-laden player who started to deliver. Then he got hurt & people forgot about him. And just like that he rose back to the top of fantasy outfielders en route to a big time free agent contract with Boston. Then he got hurt again & he didn't like playing in Boston. So the Red Sox were happy to ship him out west where he landed in the outfield purgatory known as Dodger Stadium. But he's gotta have one more good season in him, right?

Ricky Weeks - I'll be honest here: I don't know exactly what happened to Ricky Weeks. A few years ago he was a must own at 2b, but since 2012 no one will even answer his texts. Last year he did post a 124 ERA+, which was in line with his peak years of 2009-2011. The rub is that he did it in only 286 plate appearances. If someone doesn't do their homework they might look at Weeks as a potential bounce back candidate. After all he's only 32 years old.

CC Sabathia - CC will be drafted in a lot of leagues this year. He's as healthy as he's ever gonna be and he was just so good for so many years. He's got to have just a little left in the tank right? One more year of that good ole' Yankee Magic???

Ubaldo Jimenez - Why would the Orioles give so much money to this guy just last season? If its one thing that the Dan Duquette O's have shown us is that they know how to turn around a distressed asset. Well at the plate anyway. Maybe the Baltimore has a plan in place this year to reward Jimenez for good performances. Like maybe they have a chart on the wall headed towards the clubhouse with gold stickers for each strike he throws..

Josh Johnson - For some reason we keep getting sucked back in with Josh Johnson. There was that one season that he was healthy for the whole year and pitched really well. He's only going to be 30 this year and he's got a do-over year in San Diego with an offense that might score more than 1.1 runs per game. And now that he may have to earn his way into the rotation he's definitely my little secret (again).

THE MASAHIRO TANAKA AWARD FOR PLAYER WHO WILL SEEM LIKE A REACH, BUT PLAYS LIKE A STUD UNTIL AN UNFORESEEN INJURY DERAILS HIS SEASON:

Clay Buccholtz - The Red Sox 2015 rotation has been poo-pooed too much this off season for Buccholtz not to break out again. He's already shown that can be one of the most dominant pitchers in all the game when he's healthy and right. Unfortunately, toddlers have the power to take away his health, and me writing this now may somehow get in his head. He's a sensitive guy.

Cliff Lee - There's two ways that Cliff Lee finishes the year in Philadelphia. One is that he really, just plain likes living there and vetoes any trade (if he has that power). There's some evidence to that since he chose to sign there in 2011 when he could have signed just about anywhere else for similar or better money. The other is that he gets hurt. I'm betting he comes out like the Cliff Lee of old only to suffer the kind of injury that besets 36 year old pitchers just around the time that Philly is looking to finally move him. And its probably what they deserve for not moving on as an organization earlier.

Anthony Rizzo - I've been hearing some chatter for Rizzo as a first round pick. Its not unreasonable considering the year he put up last year, but he is young and has only had that kind of year once. He could very well prove everyone right in April and May and then something dumb happens like a dislocated shoulder. I'm not hoping for it, but it could happen.

David Wright - David Wright is usually better than I remember, but I carry an unreasonable bias against putting Mets on my Fantasy Baseball teams. He usually puts up solid numbers until he gets some sort of nagging injury and Citi Field has never done him any favors. That's not to say that he wont put up some big early numbers in the midst of a gradually improving Mets lineup. Yep, Wright will put up those numbers just in time for one of those little injuries to sap what power he can muster in that warehouse of a ball park only for him to repeat his 2014: 586 PA 101 ERA+

Yu Darvish - No doubt about it, Darvish has been a monster since coming over from Japan 3 years ago. The thing is that many Japanese pitchers seem to hit a wall right around year 3 or 4. I don't know if its the different pitching schedule, the cultural approach, different sized ball, or the innings they put on those young arms before they let them come over here, but it has happened time and time again. If Yu is healthy he'll be the beast you know, if he's not Texas may now share the pain of sitting through a Dice-K start.

THE TOMMY MEDICA AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ON TO DESPITE NO RESULTS:

Tommy Medica- Lets be real here for a second. There can be only one. I'll draft him for $1 and hold him for the entire season only to watch him get 50 ABs.


If you've made it this far then you probably know that we're not very big on fantasy analytics around here. What I am big on is hypothetical narratives for Fantasy Baseball players. Those I've got all day.

Want to see an award category added? Drop me a line and I'd be happy to do a 2nd edition. Thanks for reading and be sure to check back as I will letting readers decided my team names this year.

Why the Mets NEED Troy Tulowitzki

I come here not to bury the Mets...

Well maybe a little, but I leave most of that to more reputable writers. One of the hot rumors percolating this week has to do with Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki and the the New York Mets. Most people who cover baseball for a living and then publish their thoughts in places where I can find them say that the gap for this deal going forward is large.

I can certainly understand both parties, concerns with moving or acquiring a player like Tulo. For the Rockies he is the face of their franchise. The kind of cornerstone that you build around and erect a statue for on Troy Tulowitzki day in 2025. A career OPS+ of 125 at the SS position is also not exactly something you can just pick up on the way home. Unfortunately, the Rockies have all of 1 playoffs/World Series appearances to show for the Tulo era and that came back in 2007. They also still owe the 30 year old $118mil over the next 6 years and he has only topped 140 games in a year three times in his career (2007, 2009, 2011). I'm pretty sure its the money and injury history that are keeping the Mets from going full Tulo and laying out the prospects needed to get this deal done.

The thing is, this is the time when the Mets need to be bold. The last few seasons have shown that the Mets seem pretty capable of developing pitchers, but have tried to surround NY's last remaining superstar (David Wright) with the likes of Curtis Granderson (an about to be 34yo OF w/ an OPS+ figuring to be right around 100 in 2015) and an endless line of disappointing positional prospects (see Ike Davis). Pairing Wright and Tulo in the middle of that lineup with Granderson, Murphy, Cuddyer might put together enough runs to support its quickly emerging rotation.

In addition to on field impact, the Mets are uniquely positioned right now to add a guy like Tulo and have a big time impact on their moribund franchise going forward. At the time of this posting, NY baseball is in a state of flux. The Captain has retired and the City That Never Sleeps is lacking the iconic player that it collectively believes it deserves. Brian Cashman has continued to make those savvy moves that keep the Yankees in contention every year despite owners who want to throw more money at a problem than the public schools. But the Yankees still have a lot of "if everything goes right" things that need to happen for them to be the perennial contenders they have been for the better part of the last 20 years.

The point is, the Mets have the opportunity to start capturing the next generation of New York baseball fans. Lots of kids have come to age in the last 20 years knowing only the Yankees as the preeminent NY baseball team. But right now, Mets fans who came to the team through their successful run in the '80s are now in their 30's & 40's, raising families and spending money on recreational activities. And from what I understand Citi Field is a welcoming environment compared to the monument to corporate money in sports known as Yankee Stadium (not an indictment; its a business, I know).

Why not take that chance Mets? Be bold. The injury history is what it is, and the money probably isn't that bad when you look at today's market. But the chance to add a superstar player in his prime at a premium position when the market is there for the taking? Lay out those prospects, build an offense and if you find yourself a pitcher away next offseason, what fortuitous timing as their are a bunch of "aces" about to hit the market.

New York is yours for the taking.

#SandyCanYourHearMe