AJ Preller Calls Ruben Amaro

 

"Hey Ruben, Its AJ"

"Oh hey AJ. How's things going out there in San Diego?"

"Good, good. Thanks for asking. Found a lot of teams looking to make moves. Real happy to find some teams who still value prospects. I brought in 3 Major League outfielders and didn't have to give up all that much to get them. Some prospects here and there, but the system's by no means empty."

"That must be nice" Said Ruben "We've been trying to find a way to restock our system. Its been tough though."

"Well Ruben, that's kinda why I called. I was hoping that maybe we could make a deal that will help both of us out-"

"Great!" Ruben cut in "We've got all sorts of valuable pieces to move. Lot of guys who could really help any team. What's your fancy?"

"I really only had my eyes on one guy right now."

"Stop right there AJ. You don't need to say anymore. I've been taking calls all week on Ryan Howard. Well, let me tell you, I'm not just going to be giving away my best players. Ryan's a former MVP. We're talking top prospects here."

"No, no Ruben" AJ tried to stop him "I was thinking more along the the lines of-"

"Utley? You want Chase huh? Then you better come big AJ. He's my 5 time All Star. Chase is a franchise corner stone."

"Yeah, no Rube. What about-"

"Dominic Brown! You want DOMINIC BROWN!!! No sale sir. He is NOT available. Dominic Brown will be the player that leads the Phillies back to the promised land"

"Whoa Ruben. I'm set on outfielders"

"Oh you sly dog... I see what you're up to now. You want my former Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee. Pretty crafty. He's coming off a down year, but I think he's got at least 2 more Cy Youngs left in that left arm. AT LEAST 2."

"You're right about that Ruben. Cliff Lee is one hell of a pitcher, but I'm actually calling about Cole Hamels"

Silence.

AJ went on "I keep hearing that he might be available and I thought I would just check in. I mean he's from the area down here and we can always use more pitching. So what kind of return are you looking for?"

Silence.

"Ruben? Hello? Are you still there?"

"How dare you Preller."

"I'm sorry?"

"You know how how important Hamels is to me. He's the best player on this team and he's my wife's favorite player."

"Ruben, I wasn't trying to offend you or anything. I was just calling to see about his availability. If he's not available we can end this conversation right here"

"No. Wait" Ruben sighed "I'm sorry AJ. I'm just under a lot of pressure."

"So... Is Hamels available?"

" I'll tell you what AJ, make a list of your top 5 prospects. Then I want you to take that list and double it."

"Double it? What does that even mean?"

"It means Preller, that I'm down with your pretty boy antics. You young, hot-shot GM's are all the same. You try to swoop in here and make a name off of my players. Well, I'm not here so you can ride me like a ten cent pony and go back and laugh about it with your friends."

"Look, Ruben. You got it all wrong-"

"NO! You look Preller. The offer's changed. Now take that list of top 5 prospects, triple it and then shove it straight up your ass. And once you have reverse digested that list and it comes back out your mouth you call me and tell me how it tastes. You tell me how it tastes when some tries to screw you so hard that it makes you vomit out your very heart and soul. Then, maybe you'll finally understand my position. Until then we have nothing to talk about."

"Ruben, I-"

"Nothing"

Click.

Ways Ruben Amaro Might Blow Up a Papelbon Trade

Throwing a baseball finances this kind of life

Word broke yesterday that the Phillies and the Brewers were close to a trade involving closer Jonathan Papelbon. This is not a post about how Pap might not be worth whatever pittance the Brewers may need to give up or how it makes no sense for the Brewers to add a closer. Pap's a good closer & the Brewers rarely make sense (They do find success in spite of that). No, I'm much more curious about how Ruben Amaro will get in the way of himself and keep another one of Phillies diminishing assets on roster to erode away.

1. "I'm not just going to give my best players away" This is one I'm sure Amaro is running through his head right now. Yes, Papelbon probably is one of the Phillies best players after Cole Hammels and Cliff Lee. But a good closer is a complementary piece. He probably shouldn't be one of the 3 best players on your team.

2. "I'm not going to pay one of my best players to play for some one else" Same idea as above, but the Brewers are reasonable enough to look at their own situation and see that a $13 mil a year closer does not fit into what they are trying to do. But it does make sense to add a bullpen piece to gear up for a 2014 Royals type run & take a shot at the Wild Card. Especially if you can get that closer at $7 mil.

3. "I know the market for RP's is kind of weak, but this guy is one of the best in the biz" Pap may be one of the top closers in the game. He might able to save 50 games a year, but if he is on a team that only wins 70 he's an underutilized asset. 

4. "You can have the player, but I'm keeping the bulldog" Most people don't know the real reason that Papelbon left the Red Sox. During parts of Pap's tenure there, the Boston media's normal drama creation machine had largely stalled. Manny & Pedro were gone, Big Papi was signed to a sufficient contract and Pedroia was funny, but hardly controversial. So they turned on Pap's bulldog. Story after story would surface about the dog's smell and lack of blending in to the clubhouse culture. At one point it was estimated that 75% of all spring training stories were about how that bulldog was undermining Tito's authority. Of course Pap didn't take kindly to this. No one likes having their dog's name dragged through the mud, and when Philly and Ruben showed the interest that they did in his dog, boom. Done deal. Ruben loves that dog and has been known to revoke clubhouse access to any writer that dared questions its presence.

5. "Wait, the Brewers are shooting for the Wild Card? But we're shooting for the Wild Card!" That's right. The Phillies are still here to compete. You thought trading their 35 year old shortstop was the signal of a rebuild? You thought wrong. The lack of moves since then tells us that Amaro is a full go with the guns hes got.

6. "Why should I make the next guys job even easier?" Eventually Ruben's got to see the writing on the wall. Some reports had him pegged on ready to rebuild the Phillies, but any rebuild process would still cost him his job. The Phillies have been in a downward spiral for the last 3 or so years with no signs of turning it around. Even if 2015 represents the bottoming out, they are at least 3 years away from competing again. You tell me how many GM's survive 6 subpar seasons of their own making.

The Prospect and the Promise

But... I already said goodbye...

Part of the beauty of baseball fandom is the patience. Its kind of like owning a plant. You give it an appropriate amount of attention and watch it grow. Sometimes you are rewarded with a healthy, room commanding, conversation piece. And other times you have a fern that seemed to start dying the day you brought it home.

Either way, you have put a lot thought into that plant, I mean team. As you follow a team year after year, you become more and more involved with the players that are coming through your team's system and how they ultimately fit into the bigger scheme. Sometimes these players become real parts of your team's history. Other times these prospects are shipped out of town to acquire other integral pieces. And sometimes these kids wind up just plain a disappointment.

As much as we as fans invest in these prospects, organizations invest even more. We may look at only the signing bonus or initial salary that is paid to each one of these players, but understanding a teams investment in each player is to dig deep into a team's scouting and player development system of which all those people deserve compensation for their work. I have met a few scouts in my life and their understanding of this game compared to mine is not even close.

So I'm left to compare my emotional/quasi-intellectual understanding of a player's importance to a team to that of a real baseball organization's view of that players value. It makes me wonder if there is a formula of value that these teams are working with of which we are not fully aware. Or is it possible that teams don't give it that much thought.

Consider the approach of two different organizations:

Boston Red Sox

Arguably loaded with both position and pitching prospects. We all know about Xander Bogaerts (a SS because he can play there), Mookie Betts (good enough to create a position where there wasn't one) and Blake Swihart (Buster Posey lite?), but there are also some other depth options there of questionable futures including Deven Marrero, Bryce Brentz, & Manuel Margot, etc. The pitching prospects almost seem deeper, but mostly yield some number 2 ceilings (Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez) with a decent amount of 3,4,5's (Brian Johnson, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo) and future relievers (Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, Edwin Escobar)

Despite this depth, the Red Sox have been pretty reluctant to deal any of these players for current impact players. This was not necessarily the case with this organization 10 years ago when Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez where sent to the Florida/Miami Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. No one would necessarily criticize that deal considering that it netted Boston the 2007 World Series, but it does show an organization willing to part with prospects for sure things.

So why won't the Red Sox part with its high level prospects now for proven commodities? I honestly don't want to see any of the players the Red Sox have spent the last few years developing get traded away, especially when I see the prospective return available. There are plenty of good players that could be acquired, but factoring in contractual obligations and such there really is only so much out there. But at the same time, the recent flops of Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley Jr. (In all fairness, the book has yet to be written) why not flip a few of these player for a proven, win now player?

Fortunately, the Red Sox are in a position where they can allow many of these young players to develop because they are able to fill line-up holes in a lot of different ways. These young player while largely unproven are very affordable and will continue to be for several years to come. Keeping these players allows the Red Sox to sign guys like Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez for a combine $200mil without handcuffing the team going forward. Its likely a similar approach that they are also using in building the 2015 rotation. All projected starting pitchers are under 30, and none of them are under contract for more than 3 years. The Red Sox could make a Max Scherzer type signing, but they don't really need to given the affordable pitching depth about to percolate up to the majors.

And then the other side of the coin...

Philadelphia Phillies

Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Phillies don't want to part with anyone. They locked up a big part of their successful core for a lot of money.and now they just don't have much to show for it. Even though the Phils do have a lot of money coming of the books in the next few years, they don't have anyone to replace the aging vets on their way out. According the BaseballProspectus.com the Phillies had the 25th ranked farm system for 2014.

They did trade Jimmy Rollins, which I guess means something. Rollins really wanted be a Philly and put his mark on their books for which he go nothing but flack. Amaro finally moved him at about his lowest perceived value.

Even though he flipped the franchise SS/former MVP, Amaro still has a lot of work to do and might not have very many pieces with which to get the job done. Cliff Lee won't be traded unless he wants to be. Ryan Howard could be moved, but the Phils would need to eat a lot if not all of his contract. Chase Utley may be more valuable as a "face of the organization" than a trade chip. Paplebon may be gone eventually, but no one is giving up top prospects for relievers. So there is really just Cole Hamels as the only piece the Phillies could use to jump start their rebuild. That's why Ruben is holding Cole Hamels hostage like he's trying to get into Taken 4.

I get that he wants a nice return, but if you look at recent offseason moves, you're going to have to settle on something less than a team's 3 best prospects. Kemp, Myers, Samardzija, & Donaldson were not acquired for their teams top prospects and neither will be Hamels. I don't care about the years of somewhat affordable control, he's still 30 and the 2015 offseason will offer equally fertile ground. Its not like 29 other teams care if Hamels wins 20 games on a Phillies team that only wins 70.

Now, I think I understand Amaro's position. He has to rebuild the Phillies, and he's got do it quick. Otherwise, he will need to start looking for a new place to live.

Unfortunately, there is only so long that he can hold out for the best return. At some point Hamels becomes an asset of diminishing returns. Maybe that doesn't happen until winter 2017, but I would bet on it coming a whole lost sooner than that. And I'm pretty sure that the Phil's don't finish above .500 for any of those seasons with Hamels taking the ball every 5th day.


The Phillies got themselves into this position by put entirely too much stock in their own players. With a lot of home grown talent I can understand certain aspects of a reluctance to deal your marquee players. But Philly's future has been clear for a while. Rollins, Utley, & Howard (that contract...) could have all been dealt or moved on for better value by now and the Phillies' record wouldn't be any worse for it. Instead, now we have a Phillies team that everyone knows needs to be rebuilt, but the team's top asset (Hamels) doesn't have a franchise remodeling type of value.

No one would ever accuse the Red Sox of this approach. If anything, once a player develops and is considering moving on, the Red Sox usually open the door and rush them out likes its closing time (see Jacoby Ellsbury). They have been pretty successful turning comp picks received into major league players, but the Sox will also move a player for a more immediate return if available (Jon Lester-Yoenis Cespedes-Rick Porcello). The Red Sox unsentimental approach may infuriate fans, the anger usually subsides when they hang the next banner on Yawkey Way.

The only conclusion I came to throughout this rambling diatribe is that understanding a players value is like trying to hit a moving target. A player probably has the most value when they are helping you win, but no one wins every year. So when is it time to move on or upgrade? The calculus is probably different in each organization, but I'd feel more comfortable moving on a year to early instead of a year or 2 to late.

Why the Mets NEED Troy Tulowitzki

I come here not to bury the Mets...

Well maybe a little, but I leave most of that to more reputable writers. One of the hot rumors percolating this week has to do with Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki and the the New York Mets. Most people who cover baseball for a living and then publish their thoughts in places where I can find them say that the gap for this deal going forward is large.

I can certainly understand both parties, concerns with moving or acquiring a player like Tulo. For the Rockies he is the face of their franchise. The kind of cornerstone that you build around and erect a statue for on Troy Tulowitzki day in 2025. A career OPS+ of 125 at the SS position is also not exactly something you can just pick up on the way home. Unfortunately, the Rockies have all of 1 playoffs/World Series appearances to show for the Tulo era and that came back in 2007. They also still owe the 30 year old $118mil over the next 6 years and he has only topped 140 games in a year three times in his career (2007, 2009, 2011). I'm pretty sure its the money and injury history that are keeping the Mets from going full Tulo and laying out the prospects needed to get this deal done.

The thing is, this is the time when the Mets need to be bold. The last few seasons have shown that the Mets seem pretty capable of developing pitchers, but have tried to surround NY's last remaining superstar (David Wright) with the likes of Curtis Granderson (an about to be 34yo OF w/ an OPS+ figuring to be right around 100 in 2015) and an endless line of disappointing positional prospects (see Ike Davis). Pairing Wright and Tulo in the middle of that lineup with Granderson, Murphy, Cuddyer might put together enough runs to support its quickly emerging rotation.

In addition to on field impact, the Mets are uniquely positioned right now to add a guy like Tulo and have a big time impact on their moribund franchise going forward. At the time of this posting, NY baseball is in a state of flux. The Captain has retired and the City That Never Sleeps is lacking the iconic player that it collectively believes it deserves. Brian Cashman has continued to make those savvy moves that keep the Yankees in contention every year despite owners who want to throw more money at a problem than the public schools. But the Yankees still have a lot of "if everything goes right" things that need to happen for them to be the perennial contenders they have been for the better part of the last 20 years.

The point is, the Mets have the opportunity to start capturing the next generation of New York baseball fans. Lots of kids have come to age in the last 20 years knowing only the Yankees as the preeminent NY baseball team. But right now, Mets fans who came to the team through their successful run in the '80s are now in their 30's & 40's, raising families and spending money on recreational activities. And from what I understand Citi Field is a welcoming environment compared to the monument to corporate money in sports known as Yankee Stadium (not an indictment; its a business, I know).

Why not take that chance Mets? Be bold. The injury history is what it is, and the money probably isn't that bad when you look at today's market. But the chance to add a superstar player in his prime at a premium position when the market is there for the taking? Lay out those prospects, build an offense and if you find yourself a pitcher away next offseason, what fortuitous timing as their are a bunch of "aces" about to hit the market.

New York is yours for the taking.

#SandyCanYourHearMe