Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.3

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

I think on a very direct player for player, in a vacuum style of evaluation, the Dodgers won this trade.  The 2 big prizes for the Sox in that trade, Webster and De La Rosa, were turned into Wade Miley, a guy expected to be a serviceable #4 and nothing else.  A Gon is in the heart of the Dodgers order and a huge key to their success.  However, things don't exist in a vacuum and the Sox won this trade in the big picture purely for the financial relief it gave them. The Carl Crawford signing was a black eye on the Theo Epstein era, it was as if The Eagles decided to end their career on a salsa covers album.  Despite all the amazing things they accomplished, recency effect is a real thing and people only remember the beginnings and ends of things.  This trade got the team out from under the majority of that contract.  As much as all Sox fans love Josh beckett for 2007, his surly attitude only works when he's pitching well. He had worn out his welcome in Boston.  The biggest benefit of this trade was of course the financial bailout that came with it, the scale of which we haven't seen since the financial crisis. With the Dodgers playing the role of the federal government,the money saved allowed the Sox to go on a unique spending spree, one of value and volume, that lead to the 2013 World Series....and then finishing last place in 2014.  The Ben Cherington era has been all or nothing so far, and this year it appears as if he's going all in on the "all" part again.  

Uncle Bones

In the end it would seem to me that the "Great Dodgers-Red Sox Swap of 2012" was one of those odd baseball trades where every one was a winner, but for different reasons. It shows how much the financial aspects of the game are as much of a factor when it comes to roster building and player movement as the actual talent of the player. Basketball has it to a certain extent, but now have a system in place for bailing out owners and GM's who lose their minds on contracts. I'm sure hockey has something... I mean the shut down the whole sport because ownership thought players were making too much... And the NFL, my God. Those players make peanuts compared to what baseball players make, can be cut at a moments notice AND football the most profitable sport in America.

But none of that in baseball. You sign a contract and that money is guaranteed and you typically stay on a roster until the contract is over (although sometimes a team will each money for a year). Thats one of the things that makes the Red Sox current approach to roster building so fascinating. They clearly have a plan and they are sticking to it.

Without rehashing the Red Sox moves of the last the years I'm gonna hone in on the recently announced Rick Porcello deal. Understanding this whole deal starts with Jon Lester around this time last year when he had turned down what seemed to be a low ball offer from the Sox for something around 4yrs/$70 mil. I believe that Red Sox when they say that this was just a starting number, but I also don't blame Lester's team for tabling the whole thing. He knew he'd make way more money than that and even if he blew his arm out on Opening Day, the Sox would still likely sign him for that.

So on it went, with the Sox falling out of contention and ultimately dealing an age 30 Lester to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes who I also believe that the Red Sox were interested in retaining (at the right price). I also think that they were curious in feeling out Cespedes with the impending bidding wars for other Cuban players like Rusney Castillo, Yosmany Thomas, and Yoan Moncada on the horizon. They had just missed out on sensation Jose Abreu and they didn't want to be left holding the bag again. Then by the offseason w/ Ramirez and Castillo in the fold, Betts on the horizon, and Victorino still kicking about, the Red Sox traded Cespedes for Rick Porcello. Porcello who has great peripheral numbers and who thrives with a great defense behind him. Porcello who will be 26 this season with the kind of easy delivery that typically avoids the DL.

The Red Sox then gave Porcello the same money they wanted to give Lester except now they are paying for all of his years up to age 30 instead of all of the years after 30. And while that seems like a shocking number at first, watch what Jordan Zimmermann (30 in 2016), Johnny Cueto (30 in 2016), Ian Kennedy (31 in 2016), Jeff Samardzija (31 in 2016), David Price (30 in 2016), Mat Latos (28 in 2016) get next off season. The list is huge, I could go on. The Red Sox already have 3 rotation spots locked up for next year (assuming they pick up Buchholz's option and that Joe Kelly isn't starting next year; either way) with atleast 2-3 pitchers at Triple A who could fill the void. Or they could take a short term plunge on any of the starting FA's who miss out next year's on bonanza.

The Yankees have no such options. They are already down one starting pitcher, the 35 year old Chris Capuano, are stuck with a broken CC Sabathia, and a more than likely TJ bound Tanaka. Then again they've got Pineda & Nova, 2 pitchers under 30 who have yet to pitch a whole season. Oh and Nate Evoldi who might want to just sign baseball's before he throws them as they could make great collector's items as they fly over the right field wall at Yankees stadium. They are going to have to sign at least one or two of the marquee pitching FA's if they are serious about contending and they will probably pay sticker only to be left to 2 broken down 35 year old pitchers 5 years from now.

Josh

All valid points.  The Yanks have been in "should have rebuilt" mode for a few years, and now are definitely in that mode. That is not a fanbase that is necessarily comfortable in a rebuild.

ICYMI

Part 1

Part 2

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.2

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Uncle Bones

To me, saying that baseball should have LESS playoff teams because you want to see the 2 teams with the best record in the World Series is kinda like arguing that gay marriage should be illegal because being attracted to a person of the same sex might be contagious and that the science is still out on that one because no one has done the research yet. In other words, its absurd. Its also like saying that there are too many billboards at the stadiums as if teams shouldn't be trying to maximize their returns at every opportunity.

Let me remind you and anyone who might read this that the MLB season is 162 games long with each team playing 81 home games. Its not easy work getting butts in those seats and eyes on those games day in day out. Going to a baseball game is not an inexpensive proposition and sitting through 162 3 1/2-4 hour baseball games on TV is no treat either, ESPECIALLY when you are watching a team that is either not competitive or not competitive enough so for a shot at the post season.

This is compounded when you think about how regional of a sport baseball is. Yes, the Yankees, Red Sox, and to an extent the Braves have done a great job at expanding their national appeal, but very few people outside of Houston are Astros fans. Same goes for the Royals, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, etc. The longer into the season fans of these teams are able to stay engaged in their team the better. Not only is it the best thing for business, but its the best things for the fans relationships with those teams.

Our defending American League Champion Kansas City Royals are a prime example of this. Before our time the Royals were often considered the AAAA team for the New York Yankees as so much of their talent wound up in NY before it had a chance to win in Kansas City. Then they held on to players in the '80's (when baseball put in ALCS & NLCS) and won, but then in our lifetime we say the same thing happen again. Carlos Betran, Johnny Damon, Zack Grienke, the list goes on, shipped out of town because the Royals didn't want to spend the money on players when they weren't going to compete. Then what happened in 2014? Bolstered by a trade that brought in Major League talent, the Royals hung in it all the way to end, got hot in the playoffs and the rest his history. If there was not 2 Wild Card spots and maybe only 2 teams from each league made the team then Shields would have been dealt and the Royals would have been rebuilding again.

More playoff spots means more teams in contention, more eyes on the product and more fans maintaining an interest year after year. Seems like a smart strategy for a sport that has an average fan base the sits right around the mid 50's. But here's a question for you. Right now MLB has 5-ish playoff spot per league. Too many to some, but still much less than the NBA or NHL and only 1 less that the NFL. How many playoff teams is too man? Sure long term fan engagement is great, but how excited are most fans when their team locks down the 8-seed in the NBA? I tend to follow a lot of Boston media and some folks are wondering whats up with the Celtics approaching the 8-seed in the East. I know the Celts are rebuilding, but is it that bad that the team might be ahead of its time frame? And does sending half of the conferences' team to the playoffs cheapen the whole experience?

Josh

As a lifelong hockey fan, I can say throwing 16 teams in the playoff mix is nothing short of awesome. It differs from the NBA in the sense that low seeds regularly have a chance. Bottom seeds have made it to the cup, and won it. But hockey is different, they've had multiple teams come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the playoffs.  Remember when the Red Sox did that it was a huge story, but it actually has happened in hockey enough to the point where it's a fun story, not a monumental one.  

That said, the length of baseball games doesn't lend itself to more playoff games.  I love a good 5 hour late october slog as much as any baseball stalwart, but that doesnt play to the casual fan. Plus when your team is in the playoffs, it's a different vibe sport to sport.  Overtime hockey is, in my opinion, the only thing that matches the anxiety, dread, and excitement  of late inning playoff baseball. Baseball's "slowness" just lends itself to heightened wonder and anxious pacing in the playoffs.  The "slow" moments are building up to one moment where everything can change (Cue Don Henley's "in a new york munute...oohh we wooo...) If the Red Sox had to play MORE games in October, do you really think you could stomach that?  Probably, but you might have some explaining to do when you walk into work the next day wearing one shoe and 3 day scruff going.  

In regards to your Shields comment, did the pundits who bashed the Royals for that trade ever double back on their words?  Or did they just slink away like the guy who starts a fight and lets his friends finish it?  The whole argument against it was the years of control of Wil Myers.....who the Rays recently traded. That trade proved to me that snap judgments on organizational moves are good for sound bites and tweet headlines in the 24 news cycle, but they take years to play out and truly evaluate.  

Uncle Bones

The fact that baseball has only had 1 team to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series says two things. One of which being that there just haven't been nearly the same number of playoff series that hockey and basketball have seen. And two, the difference between good teams and good enough teams is probably pretty wide.

Now imagine if 8 teams from BOTH the National League and the American League made the playoffs in 2014. How excited are you right now thinking about a 5 game series between the Angels and the Yankees and the Nationals and the Mets. That's right, both NY teams would have made the playoffs as 8 cedes and both teams would have gotten snuffed out like a spider in a day care. And if that's not bad enough consider that the 7 & 8 cedes in the NL both would have had a 79-83 record. All that to add another week and a half to a season that already ends in early November. Eck...

I do think its funny that you brought up having a rooting interest in October baseball. I remember in September of 2013 as the Red Sox marched towards the playoffs thinking about how my life was about to change in ways I wasn't prepared for in the next month. Sure enough, there I was arguing with strangers about the proper application of runner interference & texting you to discuss the Sox bullpen situation while at my wife's birthday dinner. October baseball does things to me and not all of them are good.

As far as grading trades go, talking heads gotta make noise (its why they're there), but its impossible to grade a trade when it happens, 24 hours after it happens, a whole year after it happens. Baseball is the ultimate long game. Its one of the reasons why advance stats took hold here first. There are a lot of games and players can spend a lot of time in an organization. So while its tempting, and some times necessary (if its your job) to pass judgement on a single transaction moments after it happens everyone knows you're just talking to be heard.

Now for fun, almost 3 years later tell me who won this trade:

Red Sox acquire Allen Webster, Ruby De La Rosa, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Jerry Sands & James Loney

Dodgers acquire Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett & Nick Punto

Red Sox also sent $12 million. 

Who won? 

Part 3 

ICYM pt.1

Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.1

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

Do we dare submit our predictions and succumb to the pressures of clickbait, newsworthiness and timeliness?  I say yes!  Who are we to flout the conventions of blogging.  here are my mildly unscientific predictions

AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Indians

NL West: Mariners

AL Wildcard game LA Angels over Chicago White Sox

NL East: Nationals

NL Central: Pirates

NL West:  Dodgers

NL Wildcards:  Marlins over Padres

ALCS- Red Sox over Mariners

NLCS- Nationals over Marlins

World Series-  Nationals over Red Sox in 6

AL ROY- Carlos Rodon

NL ROY- Kris Bryant

AL Cy Young-  Felix Hernandez

NL Cy Young- Jordan Zimmermann 

AL MVP:  Mike Trout

NL MVP:  Giancarlo Stanton 

Yes I realize picking against Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young is enough to warrant Lucy from the Peanuts "5 cents for Psychiatry" type of help, but he has to slow down sooner or later right? Zimmermann is the Joe Walsh of the Nationals staff, and Strasburg and Scherzer are Don Henley and Glenn Frey.  Sure Fry and Henley were the principals, but you don't have Hotel California without Walsh's solo.  

Uncle Bones

The true function of the internet is not to expose people to new ideas that they didn't know existed, its provide the content that reinforces the beliefs and interests that they already had. Oh and cat videos. Since no one writes any comments, clicks are the only feedback available. And we love feedback.

AL East - Baltimore Orioles

Rotation solid with sufficient young upside and the offense should be good enough to feast on a division of average to poor pitching.

AL Central - Chicago White Sox

Top 3 starters known commodities & will mix and match the rest. O unbalanced, but the top of the lineup will carry that team.

AL West - Seattle Mariners

Its an easy bandwagon to get on when you consider the questions that surround the rest of the division.

AL WC1 - Boston Red Sox

Line-up will mash, but back end of rotation will be in flux all year.

AL WC2 - Cleveland Indians

Only because a one game playoff between Francona and Farrell is what we as baseball fans deserve.

NL East - Washington Nationals

I mean, come on.

NL Central - Pittsburgh Pirates

This team does to many things right to mucking around that Wild Card spot forever.

NL West- LA Dodgers

This team will still get it done despite Don Mattingly.

NL WC1 - St. Louis Cardinals

I can never count them out.

NL WC2 - San Diego Padres

I think the edge the Cubs on Karma. Padres are clearly all in, Cubs are too reliant on young players.

AL WC Game - Red Sox

Not that Farrell deserves it more than Tito, they'll just hit and hit and hit...

NL WC Game - Cardinals

Been there, done that.

ALDS - White Sox v. Orioles

White Sox - Top 3 starters too much in a 5 game series

ALDS - Mariners v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I know pitching wins championships, but after Felix who do you really count on in that rotation? Plus Red Sox will be a wrecking crew by then.

NLDS - Pirates v. Dodgers

Pirates - Mattingly finally does them in.

NLDS - Nationals v. Cardinals

Nationals - Too much pitching. Too much offense.

ALCS - White Sox v. Red Sox

Red Sox - I like the White Sox, but I don't like them that much.

NLCS - Nationals v. Pirates

Nationals - As smart and tough as the Pirates are that Nats are just overwhelming

World Series - Nationals v. Red Sox

This is where the Red Sox starting rotation minus a huge move or 2 will be undone. A healthy Nats team can hang offensively and the pitching is just that much better.

The Washington Nationals as your World Series Champions!

AL ROY: Rusney Castillo (Betts used up his eligibility last season)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL MVP: Mike Trout

NL ROY: Joc Pedersen

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

I read your picks this morning and then went about my day so as to intentionally forget what you had written. I was amused to go back and see that we both had the Nats over the Red Sox in the World Series. Its like, "Yep, we're homers, but we're not that big of homers".

One take away that I had from this whole exercise was really thinking long and hard about the AL Central and coming away not liking any of the teams all that much. So much can go wrong for the Tigers and so much has to go right for the Tribe. The White Sox are really unbalanced and we didn't even mention the AL Camp Royals or red headed stepchild Twins. That division will be interesting and I wouldn't be shocked if the team that wins it only does it with 88 wins.

Now all we need is a title about naked celebrities and our attempt at click bate will be complete.

Josh

I had a tough time NOT picking the Cardinals for the NL Central.  Somehow they get it together every year, and a big piece in their lineup in Matt Carpenter is probably due for a bounce back, as is Wacha.  I know in September we'll be watching them close a 5 game gap in like 12 games and be sitting here saying "I told you so" as the pundits pontificate about how the Cardinals pump their fists on home runs THE RIGHT WAY and Normal Rockwell makes a painting about it

Can we talk about the random nature of the baseball playoffs for a minute?  After reading our predictions I realized that by the time we actually get to October, someone like the Reds will be on a run that no one saw coming, Felix Hernandez will be out for the year, and the A's will have traded half their roster.  We've seen wild cards win the past few years.  Ultimately the best team during the season isn't really rewarded for anything, and all it takes is a team getting hot at the right time.  I have no personal problem with this as it keeps fan bases engaged longer, but I've heard some lament that they'd rather see the truly best teams in the world series.  I don't know, isn't randomness what makes sports kinda fun?  

Part 2

Cracking The Preller Code

People forget how strong Willy Wonka's 1970 off season really was

Not every crazy person is a genius, but every genius started out being thought of as crazy. Its the burden of seeing the world in a different way. When you see things that other people don't, they question you instead of questioning themselves first.

This idea plays out in sports all the time. No one thought much of Bill Belichick until suddenly he was a coaching genius. Billy Beane's own people questioned his competency until he created a perennial winner with a payroll the size of a midsized school district. This MLB off season alone has brought into question the operating practices of San Diego's own Mad Hatter AJ Preller.

But I think I've cracked the code. I figured out exactly what AJ Preller is up to out in San Diego. It took a while, but I'm on to him. And now I'm going to share his secrets with all of you.

First, lets take a look some the more notable Padres' off season acquisitions:

12/5 - Signed Clint Barmes

12/18 - Traded for Matt Kemp & Tim Federowicz

12/18 - Traded for Derek Norris

12/19 - Traded for Wil Myers & Ryan Hanigan

12/19 - Traded for Justin Upton

12/20 - Traded Hanigan for Will Middlebrooks

2/11 - Signed James Shields

Padres also acquired a slew of Relief Pitchers in there too, but I'm not going to get too deep into them right now.

Now for the Padres' projected pitching rotation:

1. James Shields (RHP)

2. Andrew Cashner (RHP)

3. Tyson Ross (RHP)

4. Ian Kennedy (RHP)

5. Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP)

Depth: Robbie Erlin (LHP), Brandon Morrow (RHP), Casey Kelley (RHP) Josh Johnson (RHP), Cory Luebke (LHP)

That's a fairly impressive 1-10 of starting pitchers. The top seven on that list should be good to go on Opening Day with Johnson & Luebke still working their way back from TJ surgery, but could line-up nicely in case depth is needed (I'm looking at you Cashner). Kudos to Preller for recognizing the age-old baseball tenet that you can  never have enough pitching. The Padres could be capable of replacing their entire rotation if needed.

The other thing I notice about that group of starting pitchers is that its awfully right-handed. You'd think considering Petco Park's reputation of being notoriously difficult on right handed power that a GM might want a rotation with at least a couple of lefties. Why not let left field do its thing crushing power & focus on keeping down left-handed hitters? It should be noted that Erlin, Despaigne & Kelley are probably in a competition for that 5th spot, but there were LHP options out there this off season in Lester & Hamels (could still still happen, but it feels unlikely right now). Also, given Preller's ability to wheel & deal he probably could have brought in at least one other lefty, but no. What the Padres have is a very right-handed rotation. Why?

Let's look the Padres' projected Opening Day lineup for some more clues:

(This is open to a lot of conjecture, but barring a trade or injury these players will be hitting somewhere in the lineup)

1. Amarista(L)/Barmes(R)

2. Wil Myers (R)

3. Justin Upton (R)

4. Matt Kemp (R)

5. Jed Gyorko (R)

6. Norris(R)/Federowicz(R)

7. Yonder Alonso (L)

8. Middlebrooks(R)/Solarte(R)

9. Pitcher

Notice anything about that lineup?

Seems awfully right handed heavy for a team that plays in a difficult park for right handed hitters doesn't it? On top of that, the only left-handed hitters on this team are holdovers and Preller sent away the Padres' best left handed hitter in Seth Smith (OPS+ of 135 in 521 AB's in 2014). That leaves Will Venable as the only other left handed option off the bench and even after a pretty decent 2012 & 2013 he is the definition of "Replace-Level Player".

Since its inception in 2004 Petco Park has consistently been one of the worst Home Run parks in all of baseball. In fact, Petco has ranked dead last just about as many times as it has ranked anywhere in the teens and never once above 15th. Home Runs aren't the end all be all for a park's offensive potential but it does tell us how many balls are hit where no one can catch them.

A big part of Petco's offense killing nature is the shear size of the park. When the park opened the outfield walls were well over 400 ft in both alleys with the right field foul pole sitting at 375 ft. In 2013 the walls were brought in almost 10 ft all the way around and the visitors' bullpen was moved from foul territory to beyond the outfield wall reducing the playing field size by about 30%. Its hard to say exactly what the effect has been on scoring at Petco since 3 years is a small sample size and the 2014 Padres were one of the worst hitting teams of all time.

Take a look at this graphic comparing Petco to the other parks of the NL West:

http://www.utsandiego.com/interactives/fence/

You'll notice that Petco is not dramatically bigger than the other parks in the Padres' division. Actually, a case could be made that its smaller than the other parks, especially in left field. Of those 4 other parks AT&T & Dodger Stadium are also considered pitchers parks while Chase & Coors are renowned for their offense.

What then accounts for that difference? Location and climate. If you are standing at home plate at Petco Park you will be facing directly North which puts left field slightly to your NorthWest. 

www.rafaelstudio.com

In the map below you will see ocean currents for the entire planet, but focus in on Southern California. You'll notice that the ocean current, the warm air and by default the wind blow South down the California coast. That breeze coming from the West/NorthWest blows over the left field wall.

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Mi-Oc/Ocean-Currents.html

(This is a map of winter currents, but check http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/htmlfiles/westwinddir.html & tell me how much the wind changes year round in that part of the country. You can also check http://www.parkfactors.com/SD for up to date wind direction over Petco or any park.)

What exactly does that all mean? Well, for one it means that a lot of home runs hit to left field (where right-handed hitters tend to hit them) get knocked back by that wind. It doesn't do left-handed hitters any favors either unless the wind can take a fly ball into the right field corner where the outfield wall slants in dramatically. It could also mean that line drive hitters with who work the gaps well could find a nice level of success at Petco.

As I mentioned above, there have been some changes to Petco Park in recent years. Most notably the outfield fences were brought in and the visitors bullpen was moved out of foul territory to behind the outfield wall. This year the Padres are putting in a brand new Jumbotron right out there in left field. Look at the before and after pictures and you tell me which board you think will do a better job of protecting line drives and fly balls from the wind.

Before - www.ballparkratings.com

After - padrespublic.com

Now we can't be positive what sort of effect this will have on balls hit to left field, but I bet AJ Preller knows. I mean the man set out and learned Spanish so that he would be better at his job. (Learning Spanish would make me a lot better at my day job, but I decided to start a baseball blog instead.) He has to have some idea that this new scoreboard will provide some degree of protection to right handed hitters. Why else would he acquire so many right-handed hitters and roll with a likely all right-handed rotation. He has some prediction about the effect it will have.

Its also worth examining the right-handed hitters that Preller actually landed. For the sake of keeping this reasonable, I'll just look at the big 3.

Wil Myers

Its hard to say exactly what the Padres will get out of Myers. Two years ago he was the highest regarded prospect in all of baseball. Last year he was a bust, then he got hurt and he was a super bust. Myers might have a bad attitude, but he might just be a super talented 24 year who is still figuring it out.

Check out Wil Myers's spray chart 2013-2014 of hit types courtesy of fangraphs.com:

Source: fangraphs.com

Granted its a small sample size, but I see a hitter who uses the entire field, has power all over, and takes advantage of both foul lines. Of all the Padres' new players Myers probably has the greatest variance of possible outcomes. What is definitely in the Padres' favor is that Myers doesn't start with arbitration until 2017 and will not hit free agency until 2020. The Padres can easily cut ties if things don't work out or they will have a highly productive and highly affordable player for the next 5 years.

Matt Kemp

We pretty much know the story on Matt Kemp. When he is happy and healthy he is an extremely productive hitter. We know he's got bad hips, but Mike Napoli's got bad hips and it doesn't seem to slow him down any. Kemp base stealing days are likely long gone, but I don't think the Padre's acquired him thinking that he'd be swiping 30+ bags a year.

So fangraphs.com, what does Matt Kemp's 2012-2014 spray chart look like for hit types?

Source: fangraphs.com

Once again I see a player with power to all fields with some gap doubles mixed in there. I also see a lot of doubles down the left field line which considering their distance tells me that the wind shouldn't have too dramatic of an effect on them anyway. Kemp also has quite a bit of experience in Petco Park having spent his entire career in the NL West.

Check out this piece by Tony Blengino at fangraphs.com (Matt Kemp and the Petco Problem) if you want a more in depth analysis. Mr. Blengino does not offer a particularly glowing preview of Kemp at Petco, but he does offer that Kemp will likely remain good for 20+ HR seasons (assuming health) through the end of his contract. Since the Padres are only on the hook for 5yrs/$75mil to a 30 year old outfielder it should be a deal that as long as Kemp remains somewhat healthy should be a decent value. Its entirely possible that a 20 HR season from a right-handed hitter might being going for $25mil/year by 2019...

Justin Upton

Justin Upton in an interesting case. Upton is going into his age 27 season (peak for hitters) in a contract year. He's been a fairly consistent player throughout his young career who has remained healthy and has posted a career 121 OPS+ which could certainly increase in the next few years. He doesn't steal bases nearly as much with the Braves as he did with the Dbacks, but there are multiple factors that could have gone into that. Regardless, its probably more reasonable to expect that Upton's SB numbers will be closer to his Braves years than his Dbacks' while he is with the Padres.

And fangraphs.com, lets see Justin Upton's spray chart for hit types 2012-2014 one more time for the people in the back!!!

Source: fangraphs.com

Call me crazy, but Upton's chart looks a lot like what Wil Myers' chart would look like if he had more at bats. Uses the entire field, power all over, and works the lines pretty well. Upton probably has a little more pull to left than Myers, but he also hits quite a few balls right at where that new left field score board will be blocking the wind. I'd also imagine that Upton heads into this year pretty motivated considering that a big year will net him a mega, mega contract as he will be one of the rarest commodities to hit the free agent market, a power hitting righty in his prime.

Now it's possible that its just a happy coincidence that the Padres brought in a bunch of right-handed hitters at the same time that a giant Jumbotron went up in left field. I suppose it's also possible that Preller is just some kind of deranged fan boy who went out and picked up his favorite players because they're "gamers". Hell, its even possible that Preller just acquired all the hitters that were available & gave no thought as to whether they were right-handed or left-handed. Personally, I'd put my money on the Padres having a plan here that no one else saw coming. That might make them crazy now, but time will tell if was really genius.

Reconciling The Closer

John Franco "The Closer"

If you are the kind of Fantasy Baseball owner who believes that Roto is the only way to go and that H2H players should just stick with Fantasy Football, this post is not for you. You're still welcome to read it and I hope that you do. You may even find some parts with which you agree. However, its written from a very H2H point of view. So, if you're mature enough to handle it without getting all judgmental join us for the ride. Otherwise, come on back a little later...

I had a friend in college that we nicknamed "The Closer". One of the reasons he drew that name was because he mistakenly aligned himself with a blood thirsty pack of hyaenas who got worked into a frenzy over the smallest hint of weakness. Oh, and also he routinely blew sure things.

Just about every "Closer" story went down the same way. Whether it was a food or beer run or late night with a particularly soused trollop, each time "The Closer" came into the picture he managed to mangle even the surest of things. What's worse is that he would cop to things he didn't even have to just to further cement the validity of the nickname. It got to point where it just made no sense at all.

Counting on "The Closer" to come through in any sort of way felt like watching a Sunday Night Baseball game when you're up by 1.5 pts in Head to Head and the only active player left in the match-up is your closer. You're just sitting there helplessly rooting against a narrow set of possible outcomes because you don't want to have to watch your guy go out there and do his job because if he fails you fail. And God forbid they trot him out without their even being in opportunity for a Save. Only bad things will happen.

Tell me how many other positions in all of fantasy sports are like this? None. No other position can swing from +8pts to -8pts in the course of one single play. Only the Closer can do that. Even the Kicker, the Goddamn dumbest position in Fantasy Football can't do that. Kicker misses a 21 yard kick down by 2 as time expires? Meh, no points for you. Better luck next time champ. But if a closer misses his spot by an inch, up by 1 with 1 on and 2 out? Buh-bye. You'd been better off his herpes flared up before the game and he was a scratch.

Take a moment to think back on your Fantasy Baseball history and try to remember a time when you were super pumped about a Closer you had on any one of you teams. Go ahead. I'll be here when your done...

Yeah, that's what I thought. Maybe you remember a time when one of your Closers had like a 45pt week, but you can't remember who it was can you? Then again, I'll bet you can tell me about the time a KRod meltdown cost you a playoff spot back in 2009. I can tell you all about how keeping Jonathan Broxton in 2010 was an absolute waste of a keeper spot, but I can't even tell you who any of my Closers were in the last 3 Fantasy Baseball seasons.

Those are some of the day to day problems with Closers. The other issue is that probably half of the teams in MLB have a closer situation that is in a perpetual state of flux. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox are remembered in part by the insane dominance of their closer Koji Uehara. Its easy to forget that Koji was signed only as a bullpen depth option that offseason and that Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, and even Junichi Tazawa got a crack at the role before injuries or ineffectiveness put the ball in Koji's hand in the 9th. Let me repeat, a team that won the World Series did so with their 4th closing option who ultimately had a stretch as dominant as any in baseball history.

So, please forgive me if I can't even be bothered to hide my seething contempt for Closers or Relief Pitchers when it comes to Fantasy Baseball (I'm sure many of them are very nice people in real life). All they ever do break your heart, get hurt, and force you to spend so much time on the waiver wire that your boss wants to know why you're always on you computer but never getting any work done. Despite all that, every season we go through the same challenge of trying to figure out which Closer we're going to curse out on a bi-monthly basis.

For me, I approach planning to fill my Relief Pitcher spot on my Fantasy Baseball team a lot like how I approach building my entire Fantasy Football team. Don't stress it, don't target certain players, and don't get caught up in the run. That Closer you reached for in your March draft might well wind up on mop up duty by May. And if you have a league that rewards Holds, then my goodness, why even bother with a Closer? Today's 8th inning guy is tomorrow's Closer and a top next week's trash heap.

The thing that probably irks my chain the most is that Relief Pitcher or Closer isn't really even all that real of a position. All infield positions are clearly delineated and assigned. The outfield in most fantasy leagues is somewhat murky, but outfielders are still outfielders. Nope, not pitchers. We have these guys we call "Starters" and usually they start baseball games, but sometimes in special playoff circumstances they come in for relief appearances. Or more often "Relief Pitchers" are called on to make spot starts. But regardless of when a pitcher enters a game, he is the only player manning that position at that time.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that pitchers are pitchers are pitchers. It shouldn't matter when they come into the game, they are still pitchers. There's no special roster spot for pinch hitters or defensive replacements. I don't have relief Second Baseman. Why should there be a special spot for "Relief Pitchers"? I know its an easy question for Roto players to answer, "Saves is a category. Starters don't get Saves". Well, nuts to you and your categories. The Save is barely even a real stat anyway.

Did you know, that the Save as a statistic is only 45 years old?  That's right, the Save is younger than the average baseball fan. This should be an easy rallying point for all those "baseball purists" out there to get behind, but no. They get all twisted up over the DH or fear of the impending pitch clock. (Quick aside; I spend a good part of my summer around the local AAA team. I will be covering how the pitch clock affects games) Really, the Save is the bastard cousin of the Win. People are wising up the W as goofy stat that the pitcher has little control over, so the Save's day of reckoning is coming.

Until that day, we will all have to live with the Closers and Saves the way that they are. Its possible that I can learn some sort of Zen technique when watching the 9th inning of a close game that will prepare me to accept that the universe will unfold as it should and that my Closer will throw strikes only if it is meant to be. Or maybe I'll finally just put up a chicken wire cage around my television so that I don't have to explain to my wife how that bottle "accidentally" left my hand again.

The Curious Case of James Shields

James Shields in 2010 being informed his next World Series appearance would be with the Royals.

Let me start out by saying that I have almost no idea where James Shields will be playing baseball in 2015 or at what sort of price tag. What I do know is that no one else seems to really know either. But I love me some spec-u-latin', so here we go.

Here is what we do know. James Shields is a 32 year old pitcher with a career 111 ERA+ to his name. In his 9 years of Major League service Shields has gone over 200 innings every year in the last 8. He has been remarkably durable and consistent, minus a tough stretch with the Rays during the 09-10 seasons where for the only time in his career his FIP was over 4.00. The last 3 years however, Shields has posted a FIP around 3.50 while pitching for 2 different teams. He has clearly figured something out.

Also, there are those intangibles that we all simply have to take other people's word for. Like the much maligned "Big Game" James nicknamed battered about this postseason. But by most accounts Shields is a strong leader in the clubhouse and of a pitching staff. He is known as a "bulldog" out there on the mound which could mean anything from his general demeanor to that he has a hard time breathing due to a stubby nostril cavity and farts a lot because of it (his nose really isn't all that stubby, at least from pictures I have seen). Anyway, those intangibles are kinda worthless to me in trying to figure out exactly what team will pay how much to put its uniform on him.

What I do know is that there is plenty of reluctance out there to hand an about to be 33 year old pitcher a 5 year contract over a $100 mil which is the number I seem to be reading a lot recently. Most pitchers receiving contracts of that size are under the age of 30 which Shields is rapidly putting in his rear view mirror. Even if some of those under 30 pitchers do not have the same kind of track record that Shields has to his name (Homer Bailey, I'm talking about you).

One interesting comp for age and contract expectations is the deal the Phillies handed Cliff Lee in 2010. At the time we were to understand that Lee took an under market deal to go to Philly because he liked the city and the team (it is a nice city). As if a contract of 5 years at $120mil is somehow under market... but Lee was 32 at the time coming of great run with the Rangers and with a Cy Young under his belt. And for the most part Lee has lived up to his end of the deal with 3 very good years with the Phillies with 2014's injury plagued season fresh in people's minds. Lee hasn't helped the Phillies contend those years, but he sure isn't the reason why they are where they are today.

However, James Shields is not necessary Cliff Lee. Lee's career ERA+ of 118 is largely held down by his first 6 years in the league when he was slightly better than average overall, but since his Cy Young in 2008 he has been a straight beast while on a barnstorming tour of country. Shields just hasn't been THAT good. And it would seem to me if anyone one could qualify as an "ace" it would be Lee. Shields is not at that level. He's just a tick below.

So where does that leave us? It may be worthwhile to examine the potential suitors for Shields. The teams that most commonly come up are the Dodgers (in on everybody), RedSox (people believe they need more pitching), Giants (FA spurned World Series Champs), and the Yankees (so many reasons). RedSox and (new) Dodger management don't seem like the types to be paying $20+mil per year to pitchers who will eventually be 37. If he winds up with either of those teams it will be something closer to 3yrs/$70, which still seems unlikely. I don't buy the Giants paying any more than the RedSox or Dodgers, because even though they could use a guy like Shields, they sure don't need him. The Yankees? I don't know, its possibe, but if they were going to spend big on a pitcher it seems like Scherzer would be their guy. Plus don't underestimate Brian Cashman's position here. He's got a major rebuilding process ahead of him and I'm sure he's actually pretty excited for the opportunity. Paying aging pitchers lots of money won't dig the Yankees out the hole they are in and Cashman knows it.

So for the kind of money Shields is reportedly seeking we may need to look at the fringe candidates. The Texas Rangers could be a possibility, but may be a little gun shy of FA's with recent experiences with Shin Soo Choo and Prince Fielder (traded I know, but the point is there). There's no way Padres are really serious on this one. The Angel are out there, but they have a lot of financial commitments already on the books. I see the Marlins possibly getting involved, but at that price its a question. Now the Tigers might be a stealth team in this if they miss out on Scherzer. They could use some more quality, proven pitching to keep up in the AL Central and ownership is more than willing to spend when needed. 

Another team that keeps coming up for me is the Houston Astros. I know it seems crazy, but how different of a position are the Astros in now from where the Nationals were when they were willing to give Jason Werth that big money deal in 2011. A team rich in prospects that no one saw coming giving an "over market" contract to attract a big name FA. Werth has delivered and the Nats are contenders. Its an eerily similar situation. (I've got more to say about the Astros later)

If Shields wants the money and the years its probably going to come from an up and coming team who has to pay extra to attract players. If we wants to win with an established team, he may need to take fewer years, but the price per year will likely be around the same. However, the prospect of leading a rising team to the promise-land while being paid a truckload of money to do it may be just the kind of thing that gets "Big Game" James going.