Mike Napoli hasn't had a dream In 8 years

Well no shit, he hasn't slept

This is a real story and here's the proof: 

Mike Napoli Has Been Having Hilarious Dreams Since Sleep Apnea Surgery

by: Ricky Doyle (Huh, a "Ricky Doyle" writing about sports in Boston. I never would'a imagined...)

In case you couldn't be bothered to read Mr. Doyle's blurb I'll sum it up in the remaining two sentences of this paragraph. Boston Red Sox 1B Mike Napoli spent the last 8 years sleeping so poorly that he wasn't unable to dream. This offseason he had surgery correct sleep apnea and now he dreams again.

When this story peaked my interest I ran to my best friend on the internet and found out a few things. One of those things is the fact that Mike Napoli is 6 months younger than I am. I've always sort of loosely followed his career from back when he seemed like a catcher with some offensive potential that Mike Scioscia just plain didn't like (Scioscia is particular about his catchers). He was then traded to Toronto, who promptly flipped him to Texas where he had some good seasons and then signed as a free agent with Boston. At that point catching was in the rearview mirror and Napoli became the Red Sox full time first baseman. That much I already knew, but what I also learned on my fact finding mission was how good of a hitter Mike Napoli has always been. His career OPS+ over nine years is 126. He's lost some games to being a catcher, a few injuries and work load concerns, but Napoli has been a 26% better than average hitter at a time when offense is being oppressed. The guy can hit and he's a pretty darn good defensive 1B.

The part of this story that I find the most curious has to do with our very similar ages. I more or less know what sorts of changes you go through from your 20's to your 30's. Mental, physical, mood to keep it brief. I honestly can't imagine how hard all of that would have been to go through while not sleeping at all. Without being able to shut down enough to let your brain fix itself. I cringe thinking about it. I'm sure anybody with sleep apnea knows even better, but the fact remains: you gotta sleep. 

Even Napoli himself said his life was so miserable last year that he considered retiring. I don't know about you, but I've never seen a picture of the guy looking like he'd didn't enjoy his job. So it must have been bad.

As much as I'd like to write a fiction series on Mike Napoli's new dreams... (I'm leaving that one in there. Don't nobody steal it) I'm just going to keep it focused on real world implications. With Napoli entering his age 33 season we are likely seeing the end his "peak", but its certainly possible he could keep up his current pace. He's an athletic guy with a career .359 OBP who strikes out a bunch, but still manages 20 or so HR's and as many RBI's as you'll put in front of him. His BA is a lottery ticket. As long as he stays healthy, Napoli should age pretty gracefully as a ball player. 

Then again, he may still have 1 or 2 "peak" years left in him. And for the first time in his career he can sleep. I've spent a considerable part of my adult years figuring out how to get a good night's sleep and once I got it, what a difference it made. At one point in my early 20's I went like 2 or 3 years without dreaming. It was hell. Now I dream, and I've never felt better or more productive. There's no reason that Napoli can't have a big time boost now he's finally able to dream about himself as a hockey player who lives at Costco and exclusively eats cereal like the rest of us sleepers.

That's why this year I'm betting on Mike Napoli. The guy can hit. He's always been able to, but he hasn't always been able to sleep in the way that improves his life. This year will be the first year in Mike Napoli's career that he's been able to dream after a game. That will mean something.

Baseball's a Helluva Drug

92? I didn't know they had D-linemen in baseball...

Like many Northeast baseball fans I found myself searching through the AtBat app looking for what Spring Training games might be available the first two days. Whether its this awful winter or my new obsession with Ken Giles and the Philly's bullpen I am Jonesin' for some baseball. And the strange thing is, I'm not the only one.

Take a look at some of the attendance numbers from the first Friday of Spring Training baseball:

Grapefruit League:

Twins at Rays - 4,148

Nationals at Braves - 5,936

Yankees and Phillies - 7,365

Tigers at Mets - 7,444

Marlins at Red Sox - 9,830

Cactus League: 

Rockies at Angels - 5,739

Giants at Rangers - 7,497

Reds at Cubs - 15,331

That's right. Over 15,000 people showed up to see Jon Lester throw 2 innings. The only "Baby Cub" to even make an appearance was Javier Baez. Unless you count Mike Olt and no one does.

Now, these might seem like meh numbers to a lot of people considering that the smallest parks in MLB hold around 37k and most parks draw at least 20k plus a night. But having spent a lot of time around a AAA team (Where many of the players who played today will wind up this season) I can tell you that crowds around and over 10k in the right sized ballpark are nothing to sneeze at. In fact you can really get a stadium rocking with those kinds of numbers and quite honestly you only get them on the weekends in the summer.

So what gives? Why are these Spring Training games so popular? It could be price. In a quick glance at ticket prices for these early games seem to be going for anywhere between $10-$40. Which might seem like a bargain at MLB prices, but exceeds anything that you would pay for a minor league game (once again where the vast majority of these players will wind up). 

Another possibility might be that Spring Training is played in baseball starved areas. I might buy that reason for the Grapefruit league in Florida if the Rays and Marlins weren't already within easy driving distance (especially considering that everyone in Florida drives 105 mph everywhere). Also laying low that argument is the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 average attendance was just under 18k per home game. That tells me that central Florida (home to the Grapefruit League) isn't baseball starved, its baseball indifferent. Now I understand that there are other factors that go into the Rays' poor attendance: their field is a converted convention center, I've read its in kind of a bad location, Florida is America's armpit (just repeating what I've heard), blah, blah, blah. But way more that 18k people turned out to see MLB players for a couple of innings and then minor league players for the rest on Friday. Why can't those people turn out for the Rays who have been a highly entertaining team to watch for the better part of a decade?

And don't even get me started in the Cactus League. The Diamond Backs play in downtown Phoenix and every Cactus League team has a facility nearby. I'll admit that I don't understand the American Southwest all that well (It's hotter than Satan's ass crack & there's no water. THERE'S NO WATER), but I do know what highways look like and if any of these facilities are more than an hour away from downtown Phoenix then feel free to take to internet and label me a moron. That town ain't baseball starved. That's all I'm trying to get at. So why on Earth did 15k people show up to a Spring Training game?

So as I sifted through possible explanations two commonalities remained on my screen. You know what Florida and Arizona both have a lot of? Old people. And you know who really likes baseball? Yep, old people. Who has lots of free time to take in an afternoon baseball game on a weekday? You guessed it, old people.

It seems so obvious now. But what does it really mean? Is it like other Spring Training stats and completely meaningless? Or is there more to it?

That MLB has the oldest fan base all the 4 major sports seems sort of odd considering how baseball is probably the best suited sport for the internet age. Its perfect for Twitter because there is plenty of time between action to fire off a snarky tweet about an awkward Ryan Howard swing or 2nd guessing a managers in game decision from a thousand miles away. Baseball has also been probably one of the more discussed sports in America and more words have been published than could ever be read. It was also the first sport to truly embrace advanced metrics and the internet has been amazing at spreading that gospel.

Unfortunately, young people tend to trend as stupid. I was young once, I know. Baseball is a game that requires patience and perspective. Something that your average teenager cannot even define let alone practice. Baseball is something that you love as a child, neglect as a teen (chasing booze, drugs, & tail are WAY more fun), and rediscover as an adult. And that's OK. You can't properly appreciate watching a player mature through his career until you have lived enough life to know that nothing lasts forever.

So numbers may tell us that the average baseball fan is trending older, but it might not be the canary in the coal mine some think it is. Games are on awfully late for children. Teenagers don't care about anything. In your 20-40's you're building a family, career, etc., but it seems like in your golden years, the game starts to make a little bit more sense. Like clockwork its there damn near every day for the better part of 8 months and its just plain fun to watch a child grow into an adult within the confines of an artificial environment. And when your forced to endure those long, harsh winters trying to rationalize to yourself why following the NFL is still OK or planning on which NBA team to follow next, you start to miss the stability that baseball provides.

My advice, just lean in to it. Enjoy being a child those first few weeks of Spring Training leading all the way up to opening day. After that its OK, if you miss some April & May games. Things start coming together in June and by July you'll know what you've got on your hands. By then you can settle in for August & September just in time for the Post Season. That's when the game really gets interesting.

Reconciling The Closer

John Franco "The Closer"

If you are the kind of Fantasy Baseball owner who believes that Roto is the only way to go and that H2H players should just stick with Fantasy Football, this post is not for you. You're still welcome to read it and I hope that you do. You may even find some parts with which you agree. However, its written from a very H2H point of view. So, if you're mature enough to handle it without getting all judgmental join us for the ride. Otherwise, come on back a little later...

I had a friend in college that we nicknamed "The Closer". One of the reasons he drew that name was because he mistakenly aligned himself with a blood thirsty pack of hyaenas who got worked into a frenzy over the smallest hint of weakness. Oh, and also he routinely blew sure things.

Just about every "Closer" story went down the same way. Whether it was a food or beer run or late night with a particularly soused trollop, each time "The Closer" came into the picture he managed to mangle even the surest of things. What's worse is that he would cop to things he didn't even have to just to further cement the validity of the nickname. It got to point where it just made no sense at all.

Counting on "The Closer" to come through in any sort of way felt like watching a Sunday Night Baseball game when you're up by 1.5 pts in Head to Head and the only active player left in the match-up is your closer. You're just sitting there helplessly rooting against a narrow set of possible outcomes because you don't want to have to watch your guy go out there and do his job because if he fails you fail. And God forbid they trot him out without their even being in opportunity for a Save. Only bad things will happen.

Tell me how many other positions in all of fantasy sports are like this? None. No other position can swing from +8pts to -8pts in the course of one single play. Only the Closer can do that. Even the Kicker, the Goddamn dumbest position in Fantasy Football can't do that. Kicker misses a 21 yard kick down by 2 as time expires? Meh, no points for you. Better luck next time champ. But if a closer misses his spot by an inch, up by 1 with 1 on and 2 out? Buh-bye. You'd been better off his herpes flared up before the game and he was a scratch.

Take a moment to think back on your Fantasy Baseball history and try to remember a time when you were super pumped about a Closer you had on any one of you teams. Go ahead. I'll be here when your done...

Yeah, that's what I thought. Maybe you remember a time when one of your Closers had like a 45pt week, but you can't remember who it was can you? Then again, I'll bet you can tell me about the time a KRod meltdown cost you a playoff spot back in 2009. I can tell you all about how keeping Jonathan Broxton in 2010 was an absolute waste of a keeper spot, but I can't even tell you who any of my Closers were in the last 3 Fantasy Baseball seasons.

Those are some of the day to day problems with Closers. The other issue is that probably half of the teams in MLB have a closer situation that is in a perpetual state of flux. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox are remembered in part by the insane dominance of their closer Koji Uehara. Its easy to forget that Koji was signed only as a bullpen depth option that offseason and that Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, and even Junichi Tazawa got a crack at the role before injuries or ineffectiveness put the ball in Koji's hand in the 9th. Let me repeat, a team that won the World Series did so with their 4th closing option who ultimately had a stretch as dominant as any in baseball history.

So, please forgive me if I can't even be bothered to hide my seething contempt for Closers or Relief Pitchers when it comes to Fantasy Baseball (I'm sure many of them are very nice people in real life). All they ever do break your heart, get hurt, and force you to spend so much time on the waiver wire that your boss wants to know why you're always on you computer but never getting any work done. Despite all that, every season we go through the same challenge of trying to figure out which Closer we're going to curse out on a bi-monthly basis.

For me, I approach planning to fill my Relief Pitcher spot on my Fantasy Baseball team a lot like how I approach building my entire Fantasy Football team. Don't stress it, don't target certain players, and don't get caught up in the run. That Closer you reached for in your March draft might well wind up on mop up duty by May. And if you have a league that rewards Holds, then my goodness, why even bother with a Closer? Today's 8th inning guy is tomorrow's Closer and a top next week's trash heap.

The thing that probably irks my chain the most is that Relief Pitcher or Closer isn't really even all that real of a position. All infield positions are clearly delineated and assigned. The outfield in most fantasy leagues is somewhat murky, but outfielders are still outfielders. Nope, not pitchers. We have these guys we call "Starters" and usually they start baseball games, but sometimes in special playoff circumstances they come in for relief appearances. Or more often "Relief Pitchers" are called on to make spot starts. But regardless of when a pitcher enters a game, he is the only player manning that position at that time.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that pitchers are pitchers are pitchers. It shouldn't matter when they come into the game, they are still pitchers. There's no special roster spot for pinch hitters or defensive replacements. I don't have relief Second Baseman. Why should there be a special spot for "Relief Pitchers"? I know its an easy question for Roto players to answer, "Saves is a category. Starters don't get Saves". Well, nuts to you and your categories. The Save is barely even a real stat anyway.

Did you know, that the Save as a statistic is only 45 years old?  That's right, the Save is younger than the average baseball fan. This should be an easy rallying point for all those "baseball purists" out there to get behind, but no. They get all twisted up over the DH or fear of the impending pitch clock. (Quick aside; I spend a good part of my summer around the local AAA team. I will be covering how the pitch clock affects games) Really, the Save is the bastard cousin of the Win. People are wising up the W as goofy stat that the pitcher has little control over, so the Save's day of reckoning is coming.

Until that day, we will all have to live with the Closers and Saves the way that they are. Its possible that I can learn some sort of Zen technique when watching the 9th inning of a close game that will prepare me to accept that the universe will unfold as it should and that my Closer will throw strikes only if it is meant to be. Or maybe I'll finally just put up a chicken wire cage around my television so that I don't have to explain to my wife how that bottle "accidentally" left my hand again.

The Curious Case of James Shields

James Shields in 2010 being informed his next World Series appearance would be with the Royals.

Let me start out by saying that I have almost no idea where James Shields will be playing baseball in 2015 or at what sort of price tag. What I do know is that no one else seems to really know either. But I love me some spec-u-latin', so here we go.

Here is what we do know. James Shields is a 32 year old pitcher with a career 111 ERA+ to his name. In his 9 years of Major League service Shields has gone over 200 innings every year in the last 8. He has been remarkably durable and consistent, minus a tough stretch with the Rays during the 09-10 seasons where for the only time in his career his FIP was over 4.00. The last 3 years however, Shields has posted a FIP around 3.50 while pitching for 2 different teams. He has clearly figured something out.

Also, there are those intangibles that we all simply have to take other people's word for. Like the much maligned "Big Game" James nicknamed battered about this postseason. But by most accounts Shields is a strong leader in the clubhouse and of a pitching staff. He is known as a "bulldog" out there on the mound which could mean anything from his general demeanor to that he has a hard time breathing due to a stubby nostril cavity and farts a lot because of it (his nose really isn't all that stubby, at least from pictures I have seen). Anyway, those intangibles are kinda worthless to me in trying to figure out exactly what team will pay how much to put its uniform on him.

What I do know is that there is plenty of reluctance out there to hand an about to be 33 year old pitcher a 5 year contract over a $100 mil which is the number I seem to be reading a lot recently. Most pitchers receiving contracts of that size are under the age of 30 which Shields is rapidly putting in his rear view mirror. Even if some of those under 30 pitchers do not have the same kind of track record that Shields has to his name (Homer Bailey, I'm talking about you).

One interesting comp for age and contract expectations is the deal the Phillies handed Cliff Lee in 2010. At the time we were to understand that Lee took an under market deal to go to Philly because he liked the city and the team (it is a nice city). As if a contract of 5 years at $120mil is somehow under market... but Lee was 32 at the time coming of great run with the Rangers and with a Cy Young under his belt. And for the most part Lee has lived up to his end of the deal with 3 very good years with the Phillies with 2014's injury plagued season fresh in people's minds. Lee hasn't helped the Phillies contend those years, but he sure isn't the reason why they are where they are today.

However, James Shields is not necessary Cliff Lee. Lee's career ERA+ of 118 is largely held down by his first 6 years in the league when he was slightly better than average overall, but since his Cy Young in 2008 he has been a straight beast while on a barnstorming tour of country. Shields just hasn't been THAT good. And it would seem to me if anyone one could qualify as an "ace" it would be Lee. Shields is not at that level. He's just a tick below.

So where does that leave us? It may be worthwhile to examine the potential suitors for Shields. The teams that most commonly come up are the Dodgers (in on everybody), RedSox (people believe they need more pitching), Giants (FA spurned World Series Champs), and the Yankees (so many reasons). RedSox and (new) Dodger management don't seem like the types to be paying $20+mil per year to pitchers who will eventually be 37. If he winds up with either of those teams it will be something closer to 3yrs/$70, which still seems unlikely. I don't buy the Giants paying any more than the RedSox or Dodgers, because even though they could use a guy like Shields, they sure don't need him. The Yankees? I don't know, its possibe, but if they were going to spend big on a pitcher it seems like Scherzer would be their guy. Plus don't underestimate Brian Cashman's position here. He's got a major rebuilding process ahead of him and I'm sure he's actually pretty excited for the opportunity. Paying aging pitchers lots of money won't dig the Yankees out the hole they are in and Cashman knows it.

So for the kind of money Shields is reportedly seeking we may need to look at the fringe candidates. The Texas Rangers could be a possibility, but may be a little gun shy of FA's with recent experiences with Shin Soo Choo and Prince Fielder (traded I know, but the point is there). There's no way Padres are really serious on this one. The Angel are out there, but they have a lot of financial commitments already on the books. I see the Marlins possibly getting involved, but at that price its a question. Now the Tigers might be a stealth team in this if they miss out on Scherzer. They could use some more quality, proven pitching to keep up in the AL Central and ownership is more than willing to spend when needed. 

Another team that keeps coming up for me is the Houston Astros. I know it seems crazy, but how different of a position are the Astros in now from where the Nationals were when they were willing to give Jason Werth that big money deal in 2011. A team rich in prospects that no one saw coming giving an "over market" contract to attract a big name FA. Werth has delivered and the Nats are contenders. Its an eerily similar situation. (I've got more to say about the Astros later)

If Shields wants the money and the years its probably going to come from an up and coming team who has to pay extra to attract players. If we wants to win with an established team, he may need to take fewer years, but the price per year will likely be around the same. However, the prospect of leading a rising team to the promise-land while being paid a truckload of money to do it may be just the kind of thing that gets "Big Game" James going.