Fear & Loathing in Fantasy Football

First of all, let me welcome myself back to the game. MoBettaBaseball went on hiatus for bit due to people and organizations paying me for my time where as the internet and by extension this blog just sucked up time. I don't regret that time, but a meaningful life is all about setting priorities. 

This time of year always means a realignment of time and priorities. After Fantasy Baseball's long slog its finally time to get serious, and that loathsome exercise known as Fantasy Football bubbles back up from its frothy abyss to dominate 3/4 of the conversations regarding football that you will have for the next 4 months. I know its not exactly a popular point of view to be "anti-fantasy football", but I am here's why:

1. As a male football fan in America it feels mandatory.

There used to be a day and time where getting drawn into a Fantasy Football conversation with someone not in your league was like a dirty little secret that you could share with a new friend. No one else really understood why you were giggling about 3rd wide receivers and kickers with your cousin's boyfriend at a wedding, but you did. And it was fun.

Now my boss is emailing me asking me if he should start Tampa's D against the Texans or roll with Bills' D. You know what? I don't care about your team. I barely care about mine. Why don't you start Tim Tebow in your Defense/Special Teams spot and see what happens?

2. Like having to start 3 closers in your Fantasy Baseball league? Imagine having to start closers at ever position...

Its already been been documented on this blog about how closers are the effin' worst part about Fantasy Baseball. They are incredibly unpredictable. At their best the provide only the smallest amounts of stats and/or points and at their worst they can absolutely blow up your week in only a handful of pitches. It sucks and its stupid. 

That's every position in Fantasy Football. Counting on Tom Brady to get you some big time numbers? Oh sorry, some fat-ass rolled up his knee in the first series of the season and he's done for the year. Thought you had a solid no. 1 overall pick in Adrian Peterson? Nope, his 4 year old son spilled some milk so he had to whip him bloody with a switch. Figured you had a sure bet with Calvin Johnson in your league championship? Too bad Matthew Stafford decided that he would try to use the football to pierce holes in the roof of Ford Field this week, The point is that each and every one of your players can crater, no-show, or get suspended for wiping their ass the wrong way and total eff you in the process. 

There is literally no rhyme or reason to it. Its chaos every week. Now, I don't mind some chaos here and there. There's a certain beauty to it, but don't expect me to spend hours on draft prep and chunks of my work week scouring the waiver wire for a lottery ticket. The beauty of the lottery is that its something for nothing. I'm not about to put in a bunch of work for the overwhelming odds of nothing.

3. People who talk trash and Fantasy Football do it like they playing kickball in Grade 5 gym class.

You know who I'm talking about. Hell, it might even be you. Regardless, its pathetic.

"Check the scoreboard loser. I'm gonna dominate this match-up just like I dominated the conciliation round last season!"

Ugh... I could go into some rant here accusing the offending party of bestiality or equate their interest in Fantasy Football to an obsession with girls pooping in diapers porn, but not today. Those things are best left in private.

4. Every year it gets harder to like football. 

This is not necessarily Fantasy Football's fault, but it does go a long way to keep us all distracted from the very real problems that football incurs. I've long espoused that professional sports and pro wrestling are not all that different. Well, no sport draws a stronger parallel to pro wrestling than the NFL. Both were once a haven for ne'er-do-wells and scoundrels, but made efforts to move to a family friendly environment. Although pro wrestling has been more forward thinking and successful on this front. Both treat their talent like disposable products and recognize that "the show must go on". And both have a disturbing pattern of losing retired athletes early on in their post performance lives.

Like I said before, this is not Fantasy Football's fault. If anything, the NFL seems to be in tune with fans' interest in Fantasy Football and have adjusted rules accordingly. These rule changes have also been better for player safety, but has done relatively little for those interior lineman who are the ones paying the greatest price. It just doesn't make me feel good knowing what is being sacrificed for the sake of entertainment, however that entertainment is delivered.

If you're still reading, I'm done with that. I do still play in one Fantasy Football league and by no means should you stop. I just have a forum to preach and I did. I'm done. Picks will be up by Wednesday or Thursday morning.

Sometimes Everybody Plays the Waiver Wire Fool

A Visit to the Mound

Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game

No pressure, I've already dropped you from my 5x5 Standard Mixed League.

A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. 

Josh

So trending back to fantasy baseball- let's talk about early season reactionaries.  Every league has a guy who sprints to the waiver wire after a guy like Alejandro De Aza hits 2 bombs on opening day.  In the 2 leagues we're in we've already seen the likes of Jason Grilli, Jared Cosart and Stephen Vogt picked up after one day of games played.  One day. Now, no fantasy sports player can get overly critical of this move. Sometimes everybody players the waiver wire fool, no exception to the rule.  That said, what is, if any, the right approach to early season reactions?  To use a personal example I picked up Chris Davis about 3 days before the 2013 season started simply because he was still there, he then went on to hit 50 bombs. I also was lucky enough to grab Edwin Encarnacion in his breakout season.  However, for every Edwin, there is a Jack Cust.  This is particularly detrimental in leagues that limit transactions. In a fantasy hockey league I gambled on picking up San Jose Sharks goalie Alex Skalock in the first week of the season.  he was eventually relegated to back up duties and late in the season when I had a hunch on Andrew Hammond, affectionately known as "The Hamburgler", I was unable to pick him up as I had hit my transaction limits.  he went on to set an NHL record for consecutive wins for a goalie in his first starts, and vaulted the Ottawa Senators into playoff contention. And the guy who got Hammond?  Won the league.

So a few questions arise- how do you gauge who to pick up and how long do you wait?  Do you go with the "dance with the girl that brung ya" philosophy early on and see how your team takes shape, or do you approach your team as a moldable work in progress than can only be perfected by tinkering? Fantasy baseball and fantasy hockey offer long seasons, generally deep free agent pools and multiple stat categories from which to pull. Fantasy football is more random and determined by the draft.  Ask Fantasy Football owners who lost Tom Brady week 1 of 2008 how that went.  Though of course there are exceptions.  Anyone who grabbed CJ Anderson likely went into the playoffs.  

Uncle Bones

Ah yes, the early season fantasy gold rush. Forever immortalized by the waiver wire movement of one Emilo Bonifacio. In my opinion there are really 3 different types of waiver wire moves:

1. The Hot Name: This is EMILO's!!! wheel house. This a move that happens at 11:00 at night on Opening Day. Now at first blush I get the enthusiasm. Opening Day is great. You've invested months thinking about baseball and weeks pondering the fantasy baseball roster you've built only to have it all come to a head on one single day. Except, that the baseball season is only .006 % over. That's it. One game represents less than one percentage point of the entire season. So just because Alejandro De Aza hits 2 HR's or EMILO!!! hits 2 triples or Kyle Kendrick's lifeless corpse wasn't dumped into Lake Michigan doesn't mean that you fly to the waiver wire for the next big thing. It's a long season, and like you pointed out this approach can quickly burn up your waiver budget. Especially when you consider that most of these players will be back on the waiver wire by the end of April.

2. Just Lucky: I believe that your Chris Davis move falls into this category. Davis was a post hype prospect at that point and no one expected much. He probably went undrafted in most leagues, but you had a spot to fill and he was there. Same for Encarnacion. He was a decent player in Cincy, but nothing like what we think of him now. Must be something in that Canadian water... Speaking of Canada, I had a similar stroke of luck with the Ragin' Canajun Erik Bedard back in 2007. I scooped him up on the waiver wire a week before the season started. He went on to strike out 221 that season and lead that particular league in scoring for pitchers. He was never that good again, but for one fleeting moment, greatness. I also had similar luck with in an in-season grab for Carlos Gonzalez in 2011. In that case I was just looking to upgrade from Torii Hunter and CarGo's floor represented Hunter's ceiling. I rode to the penthouse with Gonzalez that year only to be stuck wallowing in the basement for several years to come as I continued to count on his greatness.

3. Scouting, Patience & Dedication: This is the most difficult route to using the waiver wire. It is so difficult because of the waiver wire moves 1 & 2. You can have a guy on your radar since spring training, keep tabs on him as he gets called up, starts seeing regular AB's, finally seems poised for a break-out and WHAM! Billy's Baseballers read his name on Scott White's Start'em/Sit'em and snatches him up. Not to mention how hard it is to keep tabs on all the fringe players of all 30 teams. I can go into Triple-A and a little Double-A depth for the Red Sox and Triple-A for the Twins, but for everybody else? Bitch, please. There's only so much time in the day. On top of that, you can only follow a name for so long before you get jumped.

There is however one owner in one of our leagues who is a waiver wire master. He doesn't always know which teams are NL or AL and he doesn't know who any of the "hot" prospects are. He's also been routinely criticized for his draft picks, team names, and chat room banter, but he wins more than anybody else. His secret? All he does is look at numbers. He doesn't know the names. I'm not sure he even knows the teams half the time, but he when he uses the waiver wire it works. Can you guess who it is?

Josh

Erik Bedard in the mid 00s was like Guns N Roses around Appetite for Destruction.  Heralded, hyped, dangerous, beloved.  Then, it all came crashing down rather spectacularly and quickly.  Maybe he can try to resurrect his career as a Knuckleballer and go for a Chinese Democracy type of thing

Sure, we all know that owner you're describing.  There's something to be said for a cold, by the numbers approach.  It removes emotion from the process.  We all know the owners who reach for guys who are on their favorite teams.  Sammy Watkins went in the 3rd round of a fantasy football draft I was in last year.  Third.  Round.  Mind boggling.  Sticking to the numbers avoids stuff like that.  However, an owner who isn't keeping up on the story beyond the numbers is ultimately damaging himself.  For example, had you taken that approach with Adam Wainwright this year, would you not have spent close to $35 for him in an auction league?  Paying for last years stats while ignoring what other data about aging pitchers tells us?  This same approach sparked the infamous "Jake Arrieta over Cabrera and Stanton pick" that we discussed a few posts back.  The guy wanted pitching so he took it, regardless of what the other numbers about the value of hitters say.  When we talk about "all he does is look at numbers" it's highly dependent on what numbers he or she is looking at.  

Interesting confluence of ideas here- I am going to the Pawtucket Red Sox/Buffalo Bisons game next week.  I am quite excited to see Rusney Castillo and Blake Swihart live, and possibly Henry Owens or Bryan Johnson if the matchups align.  How does one handle in person viewings of prospects, or major league players, and balance them with stats?  How does one keep expectations in line from both a fantasy and real life perspective?  If Castillo hits 3 bombs, am I going to be TOO excited?  We all know about small sample sizes, but we're human beings and emotion factors in. It would be hard to shake watching a 3 HR performance.  As Maya Angelou once said "People will forget what you said. People will forget what you did. But people will never forget how you made them feel."  

I'd like to think that's the first time Maya Angelou has been quoted in a fantasy baseball blog. 

Uncle Bones

A more talented writer than you or I may be able to create an entire baseball blog using Maya Angelou quotes and references. I think I would call it "I know why the caged bird is way off base" and it would likely tread such a fine line of racial and cultural appropriateness that mortal men would find too exhausting for recreational work. So instead we can relish in the quote, feel smart for a minute, and then get back to infantile task at hand...

As much as I'd love to get into a "3 Kinds of People You Find At a Minor League Baseball Game" diatribe, I'll focus on the experience more specific to your point. For your situation, understanding the narrative of the organization and the season is crucial to the enjoyment of the experience. With that being said, its very important to understand that you are watching one game of a very long season between players who have a wider variance in talent than you might find at the major league level. In other words anything can and will happen and it probably doesn't mean squat.

One example (and there are many) that best illustrates this point is the 2013 that Chris "Return of the Mack" Colabello spent at Triple-A Rochester. That season Colabello hit .352 with an OPS of 1.066 to go along with 24 HR's and 76 RBI's in 391 PA's. He also took home the hardware for International League MVP. It was a nice story and he helped the Red Wings make the playoffs (coincidentally where I also saw Clay Buchholz pitch on a rehab assignment). Any one who saw that season would have thought that Colabello was on track for big things, except that he was 29 that season and it was his first year at Triple-A after kicking around independent ball for 8 YEARS. He did take down the Emilo Bonifiacio Award for Early Season Excellence in 2014, but has struggled so much that he got a hero's welcome when he returned to Rochester later that same season.

Other things that you might see at a minor league baseball game:

Trevor Bauer giving up 6 runs in 2 IP

Daniel Bard walking 5 straight batters

Phil Humber throwing a 1 hit complete game shut-out

Will Middlebrooks smacking line drives all over the field

Sal Fasano's spectacular mustache

Grady Sizemore going 0-4

A 19 year old Bryce Harper being booed by a Tuesday in April crowd of roughly 1,500

6 pitcher combing for a no-hitter that started on May 8th & ended on July 21st

A player in your starting fantasy baseball roster that you had no idea had been sent to the minors

My advice, separate what you know about baseball from what secret you hope to discover for fantasy baseball. Your understanding of the narrative will greatly enhance your viewing experience  because you will understand who you are watching and why. However, to try and glean a competitive edge in a fantasy baseball league from 4 AB's or 6 IP's against competition of questionable quality? You'll make yourself crazy. You'll trick yourself into seeing things that aren't there. And probably worst of all, you'll miss out on the enjoyment of watching players today that will be all but unaccessible by as soon as even the end of the summer.

Reconciling The Closer

John Franco "The Closer"

If you are the kind of Fantasy Baseball owner who believes that Roto is the only way to go and that H2H players should just stick with Fantasy Football, this post is not for you. You're still welcome to read it and I hope that you do. You may even find some parts with which you agree. However, its written from a very H2H point of view. So, if you're mature enough to handle it without getting all judgmental join us for the ride. Otherwise, come on back a little later...

I had a friend in college that we nicknamed "The Closer". One of the reasons he drew that name was because he mistakenly aligned himself with a blood thirsty pack of hyaenas who got worked into a frenzy over the smallest hint of weakness. Oh, and also he routinely blew sure things.

Just about every "Closer" story went down the same way. Whether it was a food or beer run or late night with a particularly soused trollop, each time "The Closer" came into the picture he managed to mangle even the surest of things. What's worse is that he would cop to things he didn't even have to just to further cement the validity of the nickname. It got to point where it just made no sense at all.

Counting on "The Closer" to come through in any sort of way felt like watching a Sunday Night Baseball game when you're up by 1.5 pts in Head to Head and the only active player left in the match-up is your closer. You're just sitting there helplessly rooting against a narrow set of possible outcomes because you don't want to have to watch your guy go out there and do his job because if he fails you fail. And God forbid they trot him out without their even being in opportunity for a Save. Only bad things will happen.

Tell me how many other positions in all of fantasy sports are like this? None. No other position can swing from +8pts to -8pts in the course of one single play. Only the Closer can do that. Even the Kicker, the Goddamn dumbest position in Fantasy Football can't do that. Kicker misses a 21 yard kick down by 2 as time expires? Meh, no points for you. Better luck next time champ. But if a closer misses his spot by an inch, up by 1 with 1 on and 2 out? Buh-bye. You'd been better off his herpes flared up before the game and he was a scratch.

Take a moment to think back on your Fantasy Baseball history and try to remember a time when you were super pumped about a Closer you had on any one of you teams. Go ahead. I'll be here when your done...

Yeah, that's what I thought. Maybe you remember a time when one of your Closers had like a 45pt week, but you can't remember who it was can you? Then again, I'll bet you can tell me about the time a KRod meltdown cost you a playoff spot back in 2009. I can tell you all about how keeping Jonathan Broxton in 2010 was an absolute waste of a keeper spot, but I can't even tell you who any of my Closers were in the last 3 Fantasy Baseball seasons.

Those are some of the day to day problems with Closers. The other issue is that probably half of the teams in MLB have a closer situation that is in a perpetual state of flux. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox are remembered in part by the insane dominance of their closer Koji Uehara. Its easy to forget that Koji was signed only as a bullpen depth option that offseason and that Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, and even Junichi Tazawa got a crack at the role before injuries or ineffectiveness put the ball in Koji's hand in the 9th. Let me repeat, a team that won the World Series did so with their 4th closing option who ultimately had a stretch as dominant as any in baseball history.

So, please forgive me if I can't even be bothered to hide my seething contempt for Closers or Relief Pitchers when it comes to Fantasy Baseball (I'm sure many of them are very nice people in real life). All they ever do break your heart, get hurt, and force you to spend so much time on the waiver wire that your boss wants to know why you're always on you computer but never getting any work done. Despite all that, every season we go through the same challenge of trying to figure out which Closer we're going to curse out on a bi-monthly basis.

For me, I approach planning to fill my Relief Pitcher spot on my Fantasy Baseball team a lot like how I approach building my entire Fantasy Football team. Don't stress it, don't target certain players, and don't get caught up in the run. That Closer you reached for in your March draft might well wind up on mop up duty by May. And if you have a league that rewards Holds, then my goodness, why even bother with a Closer? Today's 8th inning guy is tomorrow's Closer and a top next week's trash heap.

The thing that probably irks my chain the most is that Relief Pitcher or Closer isn't really even all that real of a position. All infield positions are clearly delineated and assigned. The outfield in most fantasy leagues is somewhat murky, but outfielders are still outfielders. Nope, not pitchers. We have these guys we call "Starters" and usually they start baseball games, but sometimes in special playoff circumstances they come in for relief appearances. Or more often "Relief Pitchers" are called on to make spot starts. But regardless of when a pitcher enters a game, he is the only player manning that position at that time.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that pitchers are pitchers are pitchers. It shouldn't matter when they come into the game, they are still pitchers. There's no special roster spot for pinch hitters or defensive replacements. I don't have relief Second Baseman. Why should there be a special spot for "Relief Pitchers"? I know its an easy question for Roto players to answer, "Saves is a category. Starters don't get Saves". Well, nuts to you and your categories. The Save is barely even a real stat anyway.

Did you know, that the Save as a statistic is only 45 years old?  That's right, the Save is younger than the average baseball fan. This should be an easy rallying point for all those "baseball purists" out there to get behind, but no. They get all twisted up over the DH or fear of the impending pitch clock. (Quick aside; I spend a good part of my summer around the local AAA team. I will be covering how the pitch clock affects games) Really, the Save is the bastard cousin of the Win. People are wising up the W as goofy stat that the pitcher has little control over, so the Save's day of reckoning is coming.

Until that day, we will all have to live with the Closers and Saves the way that they are. Its possible that I can learn some sort of Zen technique when watching the 9th inning of a close game that will prepare me to accept that the universe will unfold as it should and that my Closer will throw strikes only if it is meant to be. Or maybe I'll finally just put up a chicken wire cage around my television so that I don't have to explain to my wife how that bottle "accidentally" left my hand again.