Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Because Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy is Fantasy

Let me start out by giving the proper amount of credit that is due for this picture. I didn't draw it, I guess the artist in the bottom right hand corner did. But my goodness. Just take a second to admire all that it happening in this masterpiece.

I chose this picture for my 2015 Fantasy Baseball primer because I feel like it nicely represents how I feel at the start of every season. High a top my fire breathing unicorn, a firm grip on my .50 cal Golden Eagle with its barrel is sizzling after a fierce battle and still ready for more.  Then, by mid season I'm scouring the waiver wire for help like its Sunday morning back in college and I'm cannibalizing roaches because the hangover's too much to bear.

I've done prep every way you can imagine. I've done old fashioned research and I've done mock drafts and I've done tiers. More than once I even created  my own "super-secret magic formula" to determine auction and draft values. I've done all this and more only to watch my careful calculations fall short when I'm beat by the league winner who calls me in May to ask if the Brewers are an American League team. (That particular league is a bit goofy, but long standing & worth the price of admission in slanderous emails alone)

That's not to say that I've never won money playing Fantasy Baseball. I have. Not as much as I'd like, but I've been good enough to play for free here and there. And I vastly prefer Fantasy Baseball to that soul-sucking roll of the dice America loves to dry-hump Fantasy Football. (Which I still do participate in, but mostly because I can send mass emails saying things that if they went public would prohibit me from running for political office)

Since predicting Fantasy Baseball is an inexact science I thought I'd take it in a different direction. Instead I'll be nominating 5 players for awards that I have entirely made up. Kind of like any of the MTV award shows, the WWE Hall of Fame or the NFL Honors. We'll reassess at some point this season when it makes sense (Because I have license to make it up as I go along, like DeflateGate).

So without further adieu:

Your 2015 MoBettaBaseball Preseason Award Nominees!!!

THE JOEY VOTTO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER YOU'LL GO BIG ON WHO WILL SINGLE-HANDEDLY DESTROY YOUR TEAM:

Miguel Cabrera -
Miggy has been one of the all time greats up to this point in his career, but all the warning signs are there: a weakened Tiger's lineup, mounting injuries, age 32 season, the body of a bus driver. I like Miguel Cabrera a lot, but if you go to big with him this season you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Jose Bautista - Since 2010 Joey Bats has been one of the best and most consistent hitters in all of baseball. Except that in 2 of those 5 seasons he played less that 120 games. Coming off a big 2014 he could see a rise in auction price and ADP which for a player headed into his age 34 season could spell disaster.

Corey Kluber - I got nothing but love for Corey Kluber. I took him for $4 last year and rode him all the way to the league championship. But, he saw his innings jump by nearly 90 from 2013 to 2014 and 2 straight Cy Young worthy years while possible is awfully unlikely. I expect him to be a valuable pitcher next year, but if you get crazy for him and he winds up on the shelf for a prolonged period don't come crying to me.

Anthony Rizzo - People be lovin' them Anthony Rizzo this mock draft season. With the .286 BA, 32 HR, & 151 OPS+ he posted during his age 24 season in 2014 its not hard to see why. A second season like this in a Cubs lineup that features a lot of young up and coming talent and Rizzo could establish himself as a stud for years to come. However, its also possible that the Cubs lineup struggles with all of the young pieces that could find themselves in Chicago this summer, and Rizzo drives his numbers down trying to carry a team when he shouldn't have to.

Troy Tulowitzki - If you've ever owned Tulo in a Fantasy Baseball league then you already know. If you've never gone down that road, be my guest. Select the number one shortstop high in the draft or buy him at $30+ and see exactly what happens. Come back and let me know. Please.

THE CHRIS DAVIS AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL BE SUSPENDED AT SOME POINT THIS SEASON:

I'm not going to get to in depth on any of these guys in this category. I have no inside information regarding how these players go about preparing to do their very difficult jobs. I also pass no judgment on athletes who do things that most of us would do in a heartbeat if it meant multi-million dollar salaries and the praise & accolades from millions of people. I just chose 5 guys who I felt like might have something to prove. No accusations. No evidence.

Melky Cabrera

Brian Dozier

JD Martinez

Evan Gattis

Jay Bruce

THE DANNY SALAZAAR AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I WILL GET CARRIED AWAY WITH BIDDING ON DURING DRAFT DAY:

Mookie Betts - Betts flew through the Red Sox farm system like he was wearing suede in the rain. Even once he arrived in Boston he didn't look a bit out of place posting a 128 OPS+ in 213 plate appearances in his age 21 season.  He's young, he's good, and he's fun to watch. Worth every penny.

Kris Bryant - Oh my God!!! Kris Bryant is on the Cubs!!! The 2015 Cubs will fulfill the Back to the Future 2 proficy!!! Kris Bryant spells Chris with a K!!!

Carlos Carrasco - Great end of season. Tribe has a way of producing Cy Young winners. Always go go long on young pitching.

Yordano Ventura - Injuries and innings be damned. All I care about is a 24 year old pitcher who is coming of a 125+ ERA season in a pitchers park like Kauffman Stadium. Unfortunately, I won't be the only one.

Andrew Heaney - No one will see me coming here. I mean, how many guys in my league followed this offseason? Can't be that many. I'll slide in under the radar and steal Heaney. Just watch...

THE BRIAN WILSON AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO'S POST-SEASON ACCOLADES/FREE AGENT HUBBUB WILL WILDLY INFLATE THEIR DRAFT VALUE:

Andrew Miller - Andrew Miller started to get some attention during the Red Sox magical 2013 season. Then he broke his leg or something. But he came back nastier than ever in 2014 and was ultimately traded to the Orioles where he was filthier than a hot tub in a rental house. His big 2014 netted him a 4 year/$36 mil contract from the Yankees to be their set-up man, closer? I don't know exactly. What I do know is that all that popularity will likely result in him being drafted way to high.

Jon Lester - I bought Jon Lester last year in an auction league for $7. At the time everybody told me that I over paid. Well, how do you like me now? Jon Lester would have been the World Series MVP in 2013 if David Ortiz hadn't treated the Cardinals pitchers like they called up from Williamsport. It didn't translate into a draft bump the following year, but now people are believers. Obviously, Lester was great in 2014 and after things like the "Jon Lester Watch" his projected value only figures go way up. I've already starting seeing him on a lot of top 10 SP rankings.

Pablo Sandoval - Just like when pitchers go to Petco Park everyone assumes their ERA will drop by a whole point and they'll become instant fantasy studs, people tend to assume that when a hitter goes to Fenway they'll channel their inner Ted Williams. In addition to that way of thinking, he is still in that prime age range 27-32 and was the best available 3b on the market this year with the attention associated with that distinction. Enough owners in your league(s) will bid on the promise and turn a blind eye to the numbers that tell us that Sandoval may have already peaked at 24. (We all have that friend who peaked at 24. Their 30's are not pretty)

Eric Hosmer - People have been buying Eric Hosmer's potential for years. Only year after year they wind up a pocket full of salt for their trouble. Well, he once again snuck his way back into our hearts thanks to a deep Royal playoff run which featured him hitting .351 with a .983 OPS. Its starting to look like a lot of that promise being realized for the 25 year old first baseman which will lure everyone right back in like the Seirenes.

Yasmany Tomas - MLB has got Cuba on the brain. Part of it is all the hubbub over the apparent market values that teams earn when they hit on these Cuban players. That means teams are ready to drop big money on players who might be near MLB ready or might just be internet trolls (There's only one way to find out). The other factor in play here is how mysterious Cuba seems to all us Americans. We know its there. Their people keep showing up in Florida on rafts. Our grandparents may have once vacationed there, but we don't know anything other than its got old cars, great cigars and a baseball league in which many of us could earn a tryout. Some people get excited for the unknown. Then again some people get excited having their bangers & mash squashed by high heels.


THE EMILO BONIFACIO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL GET OFF TO A HOT START IN APRIL ONLY TO SINK BACK TO REPLACEMENT LEVEL IN MAY:

BJ Upton
 - No one wants BJ Upton to be bad. We all want him to be good. He could go on a tear in April carrying an otherwise destitute Braves team. Whether or not he sustains that hypothetical production determines whether he takes home the hardware in this category.

Marcus Semien - As of right now he is the likely starting SS for the Oakland Athletics. Billy Beane always looks crazy until he looks like a genius. Seems like a prefect storm for Semien to take off hot out the gate in the 2013 Jose Iglesias mold.

Michael Bourn - As a fantasy baseball commodity there is a lot not to like about Michael Bourn (I'm sure he's a perfectly fine person though). He used to be a good source of steals and average, but now he does none of that, and he bogs down an otherwise fun to watch Tribe team. It just makes too much sense that he would get off to an early season tear and trick all of us into picking him up thinking he's back.

Adeiny Hechavarria - Entering his age 26 season and benefiting from an improving Marlins line-up Hechavarria is poised for an early season surge. Then we'll hear a lot about how "He's figured something out" and "The pressure's off with that line-up". He also had a few hot streaks in 2014 where we started telling ourselves those very things.

Emilo Bonifacio - There's a reason this award is named after him. EMILO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE EDWIN JACKSON AWARD FOR VETERAN PLAYER WHO YOU'LL TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO DROP BY LATE APRIL:

Carl Crawford -
The Craw-Daddy has always been a perplexing fantasy player. Once he was a young, promise-laden player who started to deliver. Then he got hurt & people forgot about him. And just like that he rose back to the top of fantasy outfielders en route to a big time free agent contract with Boston. Then he got hurt again & he didn't like playing in Boston. So the Red Sox were happy to ship him out west where he landed in the outfield purgatory known as Dodger Stadium. But he's gotta have one more good season in him, right?

Ricky Weeks - I'll be honest here: I don't know exactly what happened to Ricky Weeks. A few years ago he was a must own at 2b, but since 2012 no one will even answer his texts. Last year he did post a 124 ERA+, which was in line with his peak years of 2009-2011. The rub is that he did it in only 286 plate appearances. If someone doesn't do their homework they might look at Weeks as a potential bounce back candidate. After all he's only 32 years old.

CC Sabathia - CC will be drafted in a lot of leagues this year. He's as healthy as he's ever gonna be and he was just so good for so many years. He's got to have just a little left in the tank right? One more year of that good ole' Yankee Magic???

Ubaldo Jimenez - Why would the Orioles give so much money to this guy just last season? If its one thing that the Dan Duquette O's have shown us is that they know how to turn around a distressed asset. Well at the plate anyway. Maybe the Baltimore has a plan in place this year to reward Jimenez for good performances. Like maybe they have a chart on the wall headed towards the clubhouse with gold stickers for each strike he throws..

Josh Johnson - For some reason we keep getting sucked back in with Josh Johnson. There was that one season that he was healthy for the whole year and pitched really well. He's only going to be 30 this year and he's got a do-over year in San Diego with an offense that might score more than 1.1 runs per game. And now that he may have to earn his way into the rotation he's definitely my little secret (again).

THE MASAHIRO TANAKA AWARD FOR PLAYER WHO WILL SEEM LIKE A REACH, BUT PLAYS LIKE A STUD UNTIL AN UNFORESEEN INJURY DERAILS HIS SEASON:

Clay Buccholtz
- The Red Sox 2015 rotation has been poo-pooed too much this off season for Buccholtz not to break out again. He's already shown that can be one of the most dominant pitchers in all the game when he's healthy and right. Unfortunately, toddlers have the power to take away his health, and me writing this now may somehow get in his head. He's a sensitive guy.

Cliff Lee - There's two ways that Cliff Lee finishes the year in Philadelphia. One is that he really, just plain likes living there and vetoes any trade (if he has that power). There's some evidence to that since he chose to sign there in 2011 when he could have signed just about anywhere else for similar or better money. The other is that he gets hurt. I'm betting he comes out like the Cliff Lee of old only to suffer the kind of injury that besets 36 year old pitchers just around the time that Philly is looking to finally move him. And its probably what they deserve for not moving on as an organization earlier.

Anthony Rizzo - I've been hearing some chatter for Rizzo as a first round pick. Its not unreasonable considering the year he put up last year, but he is young and has only had that kind of year once. He could very well prove everyone right in April and May and then something dumb happens like a dislocated shoulder. I'm not hoping for it, but it could happen.

David Wright - David Wright is usually better than I remember, but I carry an unreasonable bias against putting Mets on my Fantasy Baseball teams. He usually puts up solid numbers until he gets some sort of nagging injury and Citi Field has never done him any favors. That's not to say that he wont put up some big early numbers in the midst of a gradually improving Mets lineup. Yep, Wright will put up those numbers just in time for one of those little injuries to sap what power he can muster in that warehouse of a ball park only for him to repeat his 2014: 586 PA 101 ERA+

Yu Darvish - No doubt about it, Darvish has been a monster since coming over from Japan 3 years ago. The thing is that many Japanese pitchers seem to hit a wall right around year 3 or 4. I don't know if its the different pitching schedule, the cultural approach, different sized ball, or the innings they put on those young arms before they let them come over here, but it has happened time and time again. If Yu is healthy he'll be the beast you know, if he's not Texas may now share the pain of sitting through a Dice-K start.

THE TOMMY MEDICA AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ON TO DESPITE NO RESULTS:

Tommy Medica-
Lets be real here for a second. There can be only one. I'll draft him for $1 and hold him for the entire season only to watch him get 50 ABs.


If you've made it this far then you probably know that we're not very big on fantasy analytics around here. What I am big on is hypothetical narratives for Fantasy Baseball players. Those I've got all day.

Want to see an award category added? Drop me a line and I'd be happy to do a 2nd edition. Thanks for reading and be sure to check back as I will letting readers decided my team names this year.

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