tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39889786123239169582024-03-14T11:34:34.706-07:00MoBettaBaseballWe may not be the best, but we definitely Mo' Betta!!!Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-19621616740741364102015-09-17T08:49:00.002-07:002015-09-17T08:49:31.831-07:00Week 2 NFL PicksWell, that got ugly quick. Really, its what I get for getting so cocky about it. However, I did make it clear in the open that week one was the hardest week of all to pick. There's way to much random chaos out there to try to figure anything out definitively.<br />
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The good news is that you wont find me swinging from the rafters anytime soon. If anything, I am now more motivated to get this right.<br />
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Until then please enjoy this weeks entrance music:<br />
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* All regular season lines taken from <a href="http://cbssports.com/">CBSSports.com</a>*<br />
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<b>Broncos @ Chiefs (-3.5)</b><br />
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I wasn't wrong last week when I claimed that Peyton Manning should have retired. He looked done against the Ravens. I just underestimated how good the Broncos D was going to be. Similarly, I may have overestimated the Texans D v. the Chiefs. I also failed to take into account that nobody is better at multiple week game planning than Andy Reid. The Chiefs are unlikely to dominate the Broncos quite like they did the Texans, but they should be able to muster enough offense to get by Zombie Peyton Manning.<br />
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Pick: Chiefs<br />
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<b>Titans @ Browns (-1.5)</b><br />
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Here's two teams I totally misread. I thought year 2 of Mike Pettine would mean a hungry, motivated Browns team, not one that rolled over and played dead against the Jets of all teams. I also failed to take into account the Marcus Mariota might be actually pretty good and that Ken Wisenhunt can be successful when is QB is pretty good. I think Vegas made a huge mistake with this line and wouldn't be surprised if the Titans are 2-3 pt favorites by game time. But CBS locked it in when they did so...<br />
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Pick: Titans<br />
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<b>Buccaneers @ Saints (-10.5)</b><br />
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I think my Bucs pick last week was nothing but wishful thinking. I wanted to see Jameis Winston play well, but he was so far above most of his college competition (talent wise) its going to be a major "frame of mind" adjustment for him at the pro level. The guys he's playing against are really, really good. And the guys drafting game-plans against are also really, really good. That's why they are professionals. But 10.5 pts spread in the second week of the season? This is usually at least a week 10 spread.<br />
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Pick: Bucs<br />
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<b>Patriots @ Bills (.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>A basically pick game against the Patriots in week 2 for the Bills? That's a lot of respect. Or a lot of misplaced love. Rex Ryan had a history of upending the Patriots early on in his tenure with the Jets, but after that? Not so much. Plus for as much pressure as Buffalo threw at Indy last week it was always with 5-6-7 rushers. That's not how you beat Tom Brady. Especially not when he has a weapon like Gronk to create nightmare matchups all over the field. If you can't bring consistent pressure against Brady with only four rushers then you can't win. The Bills front four is very, very good, but will Sexy Rexy step outside of himself and trust his players to get the job done? I'm betting no. Its that whole "White Whale" complex.<br />
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Pick: Patriots<br />
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<b>Cardinals @ Bears (2.5)</b><br />
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The Bears were extremely close to covering last week and would have if not for Jay Cutler doing Jay Cutler things. The Cardinals demolished the Saints out in the desert. Its hard to tell exactly how good the Saints are going to be, but the Cardinals could well give the Seahawks a run for their money in the NFC West. If this was December I might feel differently about how the Cards would fair on the road in Chicago. But in September? They aught to be able to cover a field goal.<br />
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Pick: Cardinals<br />
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<b>49ers @ Steelers (-6.5)</b><br />
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This is another curious line. The 49ers were kind of a left for dead team and they went out rolled up the Vikings in a big way, while the Steelers put up a decent fight against the Pats. But I guess the odds makers aren't sold of on the 49ers (& after 1 week that is more than fair) and are also looking for the Steelers to rebound big in their home opener. Also, I think there's some science behind West Coast teams struggling in East Coast games. Or maybe its the other way around...<br />
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Pick: 49ers<br />
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<b>Rams @ Skins (3.5)</b><br />
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The NFC West may be the best division top to bottom in all of football. The Skins are terrible and they deserve to be.<br />
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Pick: Rams<br />
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<b>Chargers @ Bengals (-3.5)</b><br />
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Two (of the many) teams I picked against last week. But these two in particular stand out because I used some intangibles to go against them. Like I know what's really going on with these teams. So its like my grandfather's uncle's friend's cousin used to say: "When you're lost in the woods, just go home"<br />
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Pick: Bengals<br />
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<b>Texans @ Panthers (-3.5)</b><br />
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Panthers beat a bad team like they were supposed to last week while the Texans got roughed up by Andy Reid's Chiefs who had been game planning since the schedule game out in April. And now it sounds like the Texans are going with Ryan Mallet this week? So the question on this game is: Do I really believe Ryan Mallet on the road is the answer? I say no.<br />
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Pick: Panthers<br />
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<b>Falcons @ Giants (-2.5)</b><br />
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Isn't it just like the Giants to lose, but to cover? I hate the Giants.<br />
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Pick: Falcons<br />
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<b>Lions @ Vikings (-3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>I picked both these teams last week and both teams let me down. For all I care it can snow 10 feet in the greater Minneapolis area and the game can be moved to the home stadium of the Saskatchewan Rough Riders.<br />
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Pick: Vikings<br />
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<b>Ravens @ Raiders (7.5)</b><br />
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Pick: Ravens<br />
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<b>Dolphins @ Jaguars (6.5)</b><br />
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NEXT!!!<br />
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Pick: Dolphins<br />
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<b>Cowboys @ Eagles (-5.5)</b><br />
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The Eagles really let me down last week, but I'm afraid that without Dez Bryant the Cowboys are a much worse team. I might be wrong about that, but like the Giants, I hate betting on the Cowboys.<br />
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Pick: Eagles<br />
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<b>Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5)</b><br />
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A rematch of that ridiculous NFC Championship game from last season. Packers might eek this one out, but will they do it by more than a field goal?<br />
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Pick: Seahawks<br />
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<b>Jets @ Colts (-7.5)</b><br />
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Do you believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick? Because as a Bills fan, I do not.<br />
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Pick: Colts<br />
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So there they are. I know I've got a lot to prove. As always if you disagree, you know where to find me.<br />
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<b>Season Record:</b> 4-12<br />
<br />Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-49380065492706157562015-09-10T06:42:00.002-07:002015-09-10T06:42:28.243-07:00NFL Week 1 Picks<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">
After last season's 8-2 playoff run I am officially crowning myself the king. Now, heavy is the head that wears the crown, so if you want to try and knock it off I'm right here. Until then enjoy my Week 1 entrance music:<br />
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No doubt about it, Week 1 of the NFL season is by far the hardest one to pick. That's why somewhere between 1/3-1/2 of your suicide pool will be done by Tuesday of next week. We really don't know what we have with these teams yet.<br />
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We know what last year's team looked like and by and large their weren't too many major overhauls save the Buffalo Bills. That's not how football works anyway. You can't trade your way out of anything. You can cut players, sign other's castoffs, occasionally make a big free agent signing, but nothing like the 2015 Padres will every happen in the NFL. Its just not built that way.<br />
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The only major ways to change a team is to change the QB and change the coach. That's about it. Both of those changes will result in minor tweaks elsewhere, but its hard for teams to improve dramatically unless they do so from within.<br />
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So when making Week 1 picks you just have to go with information that you know, rely a little on what you think and cross your fingers. Everyone else is just as lost as you are. Also, preseason means nothing.<br />
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*Regular Season lines are taken from CBSSports.com<br />
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<b>Steelers @ Patriots (-7.5)</b><br />
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With all do respect to the Steelers who are one of the NFL's model franchises, New England will be hell bent in 2015 on destroying every team in their path. Belichick is pissed. Brady is pissed. Patriot Pat is pissed. The NFL tried to sell out THE model franchise and got exposed in the process. The 2015 Pats may not win every game, but teams that play them will not be the same afterwards.<br />
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Pick: Patriots</div>
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<b>Packers @ Bears (+6.5)</b><br />
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I think the Bears have a new coach and I think that the Packers under-performed last year. Aaron Rodgers better be motivated to take down the league this year, but I can't guarantee that. I feel like his life is too good to be worried that much about football. Also (after some research), a John Fox coached Bears team will not be taking beat-downs of a touchdown or more at home.<br />
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Pick: Bears</div>
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<b>Chiefs @ Texans (-1.5)</b><br />
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This might be one of the more intriguing games of the week. Andy Reid does some amazing things <i>with</i> offenses while JJ Watt does some amazing things <b>to</b> offenses. On the whole I feel like the Chiefs are probably the better team here, but the Texans front 4 ought to be able to totally disrupt any sort of rhythm the Chiefs try to establish on offense. Plus, who is the Chiefs' QB? Oh right, its Alex Smith.<br />
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Pick: Texans</div>
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<b>Browns @ Jets (-3.5)</b><br />
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I can't even bring myself to conjure up any reason to how this game will end.<br />
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Pick: Browns</div>
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<b>Colts @ Bills (+2.5)</b><br />
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These two teams are almost polar opposites. The Bills have talent up and down their roster with a serviceable line (if healthy) and a huge question mark at QB. The Colts have a once in a generation talent at QB, a serviceable line (if healthy) and a dearth of talent everywhere else. Put Andrew Luck on the Bills and that team somehow wins 20 games. Put Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel, Matt Cassell, the ghost of Tim Couch or any other warm body in camp with the Bills at the helm for the Colts and that team wins a negative amount of games. Plus, the Ralph is going to be INSANE on Sunday.<br />
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Pick: Bills</div>
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<b>Dolphins @ Skins (+3.5)</b><br />
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(Editors Note: Daniel Snyder has every right to name his football team anything he wants. However, I don't have to use that name and neither does anybody else. Therefore, consider them the Washington Skins on this blog.)<br />
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I don't know if this line is more about how good people believe the Dolphins will be or how bad people expect the Skins to be. And other than having the courage to sit down RG3, I can't really say what the Redskins have done this offseason. The Dolphins did sign one of the baddest men on the planet (between the lines anyway) and everyone seems to love Ryan Tannehill for some strange reason.<br />
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Pick: Dolphins</div>
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<b>Panthers @ Jaguars (+3.5)</b><br />
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I want to pick the Jaguars here, but Cam Newton is just too damn good. If only Carolina could get some nice complementary pieces... Or if the Panthers would just trade him to the Bills. Does anyone have Terry Pegula's email?<br />
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Pick: Panthers</div>
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<b>Seahawks @ Rams (+4.5)</b></div>
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This would be the ultimate test of the "Super Bowl" hangover effect if not for the unflappable Russel Wilson and the indomitable Pete Carroll. Nothing that happens with Seattle makes sense to the layperson and that's OK. When you win games you don't have to explain anything. Also, Nick Foles was a nice story, but I'm not so sure he's going to thrive with the Rams.<br />
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Pick: Seahawks<br />
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<b>Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)</b></div>
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The Cardinals are hard team to figure this season. For like 1/2 of 2014 they were one of the best teams in the league. Bruce Arians is a great coach and Carson Palmer is a good enough QB. However, after Palmer got hurt the Cardinals let Jesus take the Wheel and that truck careened right into oncoming traffic. It was ugly and sad. But Palmer's back and the Saints just seem to get a little worse every year.<br />
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Pick: Cardinals<br />
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<b>Lions @ Chargers (-3.5)</b><br />
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Chargers never play well early in the year.<br />
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Pick: Lions</div>
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<b>Titans @ Buccaneers (-3.5)</b><br />
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Lovie Smith is a good coach who got a bit of a raw deal in Chicago. But then again, I kind of think that being a NFL coach is a bit of a raw deal. What other job has you working 80 hour weeks and forces your family to move to a new city every 2 years. I don't get it. You know what I do get? When two rookie QB's match up, take the one playing at home.<br />
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Pick: Bucs</div>
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<b>Bengals @ Raiders (+3.5)</b><br />
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This is the upset of the week. Things have to turn around in Oakland eventually. Could this be the year? Also, Marvin Lewis Bengals teams, while typically solid are known for mental lapses. This is a mental lapse waiting to happen.<br />
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Pick: Raiders</div>
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<b>Ravens @ Broncos (-4.5)</b><br />
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Peyton Manning should have retired.<br />
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Pick: Ravens</div>
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<b>Giants @ Cowboys (-5.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>I know the Giants had a bit of an unlucky season in 2014, but I don't see how they plan on turning it around. Honestly, they feel a bit like the Mets of like 3 or 4 years ago: no plan, no vision, no money (although, that's not really an issue in the NFL) and no hope. Well, apparently the Mets did have a plan or they sold their souls. I don't know which and I'm not here to judge. But, it means nothing for the Giants. They don't even play in the same state.<br />
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Pick: Cowboys</div>
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<b>Eagles @ Falcons (+2.5)</b><br />
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Put me in the camp of those who believe that this is going to be Chip Kelly's year. He finally has the roster he wants and the QB that he wants. Hell, he won games when he didn't have those things. Couple that with a Falcons team that seems to perpetually lack identity. This is an easy one.<br />
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Pick: Eagles<br />
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<b>Vikings @ 49ers (+2.5)</b><br />
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I don't get the 49ers as an organization. They let Jim Harbaugh build a winner and then bought his tickets out of town when they found out he was a bit of a meanie. How do you think that football games are won? Through negotiation and tact? No, you smack a guy in the mouth over and over again until they quit. Its not a pretty game. It never has been.<br />
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Pick: Vikings<br />
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There you have it. As always if you don't like my picks or my method let me know. I'm always happy to be told why I'm wrong.</div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-65040121481819403522015-09-08T08:37:00.001-07:002015-09-08T08:55:56.581-07:00Fear & Loathing in Fantasy Football<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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First of all, let me welcome myself back to the game. MoBettaBaseball went on hiatus for bit due to people and organizations paying me for my time where as the internet and by extension this blog just sucked up time. I don't regret that time, but a meaningful life is all about setting priorities. </div>
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This time of year always means a realignment of time and priorities. After Fantasy Baseball's long slog its finally time to get serious, and that loathsome exercise known as Fantasy Football bubbles back up from its frothy abyss to dominate 3/4 of the conversations regarding football that you will have for the next 4 months. I know its not exactly a popular point of view to be "anti-fantasy football", but I am here's why:</div>
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<b>1. As a male football fan in America it feels mandatory.</b></div>
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There used to be a day and time where getting drawn into a Fantasy Football conversation with someone not in your league was like a dirty little secret that you could share with a new friend. No one else really understood why you were giggling about 3rd wide receivers and kickers with your cousin's boyfriend at a wedding, but you did. And it was fun.</div>
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Now my boss is emailing me asking me if he should start Tampa's D against the Texans or roll with Bills' D. You know what? I don't care about your team. I barely care about mine. Why don't you start Tim Tebow in your Defense/Special Teams spot and see what happens?</div>
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<b>2. Like having to start 3 closers in your Fantasy Baseball league? Imagine having to start closers at ever position...</b></div>
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Its already been been documented on this blog about how closers are the effin' worst part about Fantasy Baseball. They are incredibly unpredictable. At their best the provide only the smallest amounts of stats and/or points and at their worst they can absolutely blow up your week in only a handful of pitches. It sucks and its stupid. </div>
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That's every position in Fantasy Football. Counting on Tom Brady to get you some big time numbers? Oh sorry, some fat-ass rolled up his knee in the first series of the season and he's done for the year. Thought you had a solid no. 1 overall pick in Adrian Peterson? Nope, his 4 year old son spilled some milk so he had to whip him bloody with a switch. Figured you had a sure bet with Calvin Johnson in your league championship? Too bad Matthew Stafford decided that he would try to use the football to pierce holes in the roof of Ford Field this week, The point is that each and every one of your players can crater, no-show, or get suspended for wiping their ass the wrong way and total eff you in the process. </div>
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There is literally no rhyme or reason to it. Its chaos every week. Now, I don't mind some chaos here and there. There's a certain beauty to it, but don't expect me to spend hours on draft prep and chunks of my work week scouring the waiver wire for a lottery ticket. The beauty of the lottery is that its something for nothing. I'm not about to put in a bunch of work for the overwhelming odds of nothing.</div>
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<b>3. People who talk trash and Fantasy Football do it like they playing kickball in Grade 5 gym class.</b></div>
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You know who I'm talking about. Hell, it might even be you. Regardless, its pathetic.</div>
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"Check the scoreboard loser. I'm gonna dominate this match-up just like I dominated the conciliation round last season!"</div>
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Ugh... I could go into some rant here accusing the offending party of bestiality or equate their interest in Fantasy Football to an obsession with girls pooping in diapers porn, but not today. Those things are best left in private.</div>
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<b>4. Every year it gets harder to like football. </b></div>
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This is not necessarily Fantasy Football's fault, but it does go a long way to keep us all distracted from the very real problems that football incurs. I've long espoused that professional sports and pro wrestling are not all that different. Well, no sport draws a stronger parallel to pro wrestling than the NFL. Both were once a haven for ne'er-do-wells and scoundrels, but made efforts to move to a family friendly environment. Although pro wrestling has been more forward thinking and successful on this front. Both treat their talent like disposable products and recognize that "the show must go on". And both have a disturbing pattern of losing retired athletes early on in their post performance lives.</div>
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Like I said before, this is not Fantasy Football's fault. If anything, the NFL seems to be in tune with fans' interest in Fantasy Football and have adjusted rules accordingly. These rule changes have also been better for player safety, but has done relatively little for those interior lineman who are the ones paying the greatest price. It just doesn't make me feel good knowing what is being sacrificed for the sake of entertainment, however that entertainment is delivered.</div>
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If you're still reading, I'm done with that. I do still play in one Fantasy Football league and by no means should you stop. I just have a forum to preach and I did. I'm done. Picks will be up by Wednesday or Thursday morning.</div>
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<br />Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-91674576216736450642015-04-16T11:28:00.001-07:002015-04-16T11:28:37.535-07:00Now I've Got Some Time for Baseball<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">So um... Listen. My wife is friggin' pissed about the last road trip. I'm in no hurry to get home.</td></tr>
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Josh</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">It appears as if pace of play rules are working: <a href="http://deadspin.com/mlbs-attempts-to-speed-up-the-game-appear-to-be-working-1697688811" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://deadspin.com/<wbr></wbr>mlbs-attempts-to-speed-up-the-<wbr></wbr>game-appear-to-be-working-<wbr></wbr>1697688811</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Taking off an average of 8 minutes and getting under the 3 hour mark is huge. I have no problem watching a 5 hour slog with multiple pitching changes in an inning, but things like that will always keep baseball a somewhat nichey, regional sport. As a lifelong hockey fan I've grown weary of not being able to discuss my favorite sport when I travel to certain parts of the US. I am all for growing the game. I never got why people become "sports hipsters" about stuff. Hockey fans love to be insular and act like they've been hiding something from the world, some secret sport. I'd much rather the NHL be in the public consciousness for more than just fights or extreme injuries, which is about the only time the NHL gets the truly national stage. Same with baseball. Red Sox v Yankees and similar big market games will always drive ratings, but is Joe Six pack gonna watch a late september game with wild card implications between the Pirates and the Rockies? Unless said Mr Six pack lives in Colorado or Pittsburgh, probably not. Meanwhile, people watch the NFL scouting combine just to see 20 year olds do shuttle runs. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">There's a couple of things to unpack as they pertain the new, shorter baseball games. One that you definitely hit right on the head was the comparison between the NFL and MLB. The NFL really occupies a strange space right now in American sports landscape. There's a war going on for the sport's soul and one side is winning. 2 years ago you heard an awful lot about how discouraging the vicious hits on defenseless receivers would take "toughness" out of the game. Well, now that veterans football players are turning up dead at a rate only seen in Pro Wrestling and Fantasy Football numbers going through the roof, no one is complaining any more. Despite protests, it made the game a better viewing experience.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">You'll some similar protests to baseball's pace of play changes. These arguments that emerge from the idea that "baseball shouldn't have time limit" usually come from grumpy old men and the "sports hipsters". These opinions don't matter much as grumpy old men (always knowledgeable & entertaining) are not the future and "hipsters" of any ilk are fairly transient in their interests and will move on to something newer soon anyway.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Getting games under 3 hours is very important to the long term health of the game. Especially when you consider the amount of TV money currently bolstering incomes. We are more or less conditioned around the idea of a 3 hour sporting events. NFL, NBA, NHL all wrap their games up under 3 hours. Its really all we can spend on a single sporting event. I mean really, how many other things do we 3 solid hours to in our day or even week? Other than work? 3 uninterrupted hours? I can't think of anything, yet we expect fans to tune in night after night after night to a 4 hour baseball game featuring multiple mound conferences, throws over, pitching changes, and batters adjusting their gloves? Not when I've got my tablet here and I can check Twitter for some game commenta... Oh look, 13 ways to lose weig... Wait, the Bills just traded for Phil... Huh, whats that? A shiny new penny?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A short, crisp 3 hour baseball game with a solid rhythm will grow the game nationally. It might not happen right away, but I'll be curious to see how the playoff numbers look. I hear a lot from people about how they only get into playoff hockey, but don't care much for the regular season. Well, what if people started getting into playoff baseball? As it stands now just about every playoff baseball game is a 4 hour commitment that doesn't end until 11:00 or 12:00 at night. That's no way to attract new fans even if that midnight drama is as thick as a hipster's mustache wax.</span></div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-9669735896613842552015-04-15T12:00:00.000-07:002015-04-15T12:00:01.459-07:00Its Time to Overreact About the Cubs<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span><br />
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">We made the right decision Jon. We did. </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Going back to early season overreacting, are the Cubs sounding the alarms already?</span></div>
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<a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/29745/cubs-offense-in-need-of-help" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://espn.go.com/blog/<wbr></wbr>chicago/cubs/post/_/id/29745/<wbr></wbr>cubs-offense-in-need-of-help</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is just feeding the crowd who wanted Bryant to start with the team. However, the <span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">article specifically seems to be highlighting that they have trouble scoring with guys in scoring position. Hitting with RISP tends to even out over a bigger sample size. Remember how the cardinals basically rode a high BA with RISP (specifically by Allen Craig) to a World Series then couldn't recreate it? RISP means guys hit to get on. As Rizzo says in the article keep getting on base and the RBIs will come. </span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: #222222; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><br />That's not to say putting a guy who hit over .300 in the minors in your lineup wouldn't help your offense. It would. And he will be there soon enough as has been discussed at length. Doesn't guarantee he'd hit with RISP though or solve that problem. To me, It's not really worth pushing the panic button on April 11th. However, panic sells, especially in bigger markets with fragile fan bases. Gotta get those early season clicks somehow, he says while winking at the camera.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Uncle Bones</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Its important here to note the difference between the Cubs sounding the panic bell and the Cubs/baseball media creating the panic narrative out of thin air. I know that you know the difference and basically pointed it out above, but I think us baseball types (yes, we're baseball types now. It needed to be said) may have assumed something about the Cubs that wasn't necessarily true. So without going into the unreasonable nature of hand wringing over </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">.0185%</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"> of the season lets talk about the offense that the Cubs actually hit the ground with to start 2015.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>1 Dexter Fowler CF</u> - Career OPB .365 - Serviceable, but not stand-out for a lead off hitter and at age 29 not likely to get much better.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>2 Jorge Soler RF</u> - Only 23 years old. I can put his number here, but they don't mean anything. He might be really good, but he's just as likely to need some time to be really good.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>3 Anthony Rizzo 1B</u> - In 2014 as a 24 year old posted a 151 OPS+ in 616 PA's. Kid's a stud. We should be annoyed that the Red Sox traded him, but him for... Wade Miley... but eh... I still like the team they have now.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>4 Miguel Montero C </u>- Has not posted an OPS+ above 100 since 2012. He's 31 now and still a catcher. He is not who you want in the clean-up spot.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>5 Starlin Castro SS</u> - 25 yo, career OPS+ of 99, and if the Cubs were really that high on him they wouldn't have traded for Addison Russel and we wouldn't be hearing rumors about him going to the Padres</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>6 Chris Coghlan LF</u> - Has a career OPS+ of 100 despite only having 2 season about 100: 2008 & 2014. And he's 30 this season. If the Cubs are lucky he's an average player. If they're lucky...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>7 Mike Olt 3B</u> - Other than just keeping 3B warm for Bryant, Olt's other claim to fame is having never hit about .200 in any season in his career. I'm sorry, but he has shown nothing to demonstrate that he is a major league hitter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>8 Pitcher Spot</u> - The numbers say hitting the pitcher 8th is the best way to go. I'm glad Joe Maddon will actually do it day in day out and not just pay lip service to the idea, but for our purposes lets be generous: whoever hits here has a .200 average.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>9 Arismendy Alcantara 2B</u> - A fantasy darling this spring, but at 23 has done nothing to prove that he's an everyday hitter. You want more evidence? He hits 9th for the Cubs. I rest my case.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">My take away from all this? The Cubs line-up is just plain not that good. Their top 3 is pretty good, but the Cubs could do better than Fowler in the lead-off spot and Soler is no sure thing this season. Miguel Montero is not the 4 hitter on a winning team. From there they go from average to abysmal quick. So it shouldn't be a huge surprise that the Cubs are struggling to score runs. They have one stud, some more or less average veterans and a bunch of youngsters who haven't carried their weight as of yet.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Bryant slotting into the 4th spot and sending Montero, Castro, Coghlan down and Olt to anywhere else will definitely help, but looking at that line-up for what it is, I understand why Theo and crew are OK waiting out those 2 weeks or so. Unless 2 or 3 of those youngsters take a huge step forward, the Cubs are still a "wait till next year" team.</span><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">BTW if you Google "Cubs lineup" this is what you get. Look at Manny's mugshot. WTF???</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="Inline image 1" class="CToWUd a6T" height="320" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=451158d2ff&view=fimg&th=14cab708db0685da&attid=0.1&disp=emb&realattid=ii_14cab705bbf33804&attbid=ANGjdJ92nkwDSCAwI5jr9ic5Da8kxzWT5g0uaNWvSNFtZqSzwv-bOiO6edzvjKCE079Monh3uxehsXt_LsBcOZAzMgxDY7_l51_xju5R8fywcDqlgHCQbos5JTOQj6Q&sz=w970-h640&ats=1429120882165&rm=14cab708db0685da&zw&atsh=1" style="cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;" tabindex="0" width="485" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Josh</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Very interesting points. So clearly the Cubs were so hyped they were actually overvalued. Seems to happen every year. What is the cause of this? Do writers just appreciate a good story? People WANT to believe in the Cubs, but it seems it was beyond statistical reasoning.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: large;"><b>Uncle Bones</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Baseball is the American sport of where narratives find their home. From its inception it has come alive in the minds of millions through the written word. When baseball first started the only way to keep abreast of the results was from the daily paper, a then thriving form of media. Next came the radio, which allowed for fans to follow a game without being in attendance, but if you missed a game the write up and the box score were still in featured prominently in the next day's paper. Then TV, internet, podcasts and so forth, but reading and writing about baseball is still a major part of how the sport is understood. It was "America's Pastime", because at a time it was something that you could discuss with any one from your community because it was regularly presented in the media of the time and it was relatively easy to keep on top of whether you were interested or not.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">So for fans and media types to latch on to the story of the 2015 Cubs is not all that surprising. The years of failure, plus the organizational stewardship of Theo Epstein, plus the eccentric yet media friendly Joe Madden, plus the promise of youth, plus the addition of an "Ace" had everyone all amped up on the North Sides "Lovable Losers". The angle that fascinates me the most about the Cubs obsession is that how much the White Sox are an all but forgotten Chicago team. Its not like the Yankees & Mets where one team has been around for way longer and has won way more in its history. Its not even really like the situations in Los Angeles or the Bay Area. For whatever reason, the Cubs are the Chicago team that really generates the narrative. Both the Cubs and the White Sox were founded in the 19th century. Both teams won early on in the history and not much sense then. And while the White Sox took home the WS hardware in 2005 you never heard anything about them being cursed even though they managed to go 88 years between titles. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">So the Cubs clearly have a special place in America's consciousness and this always lend itself to a runaway narrative. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><br /></span>Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-40742386531623397842015-04-09T08:57:00.001-07:002015-04-09T08:57:50.214-07:00Sometimes Everybody Plays the Waiver Wire Fool<h2>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">No pressure, I've already dropped you from my 5x5 Standard Mixed League.</td></tr>
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Josh</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">So trending back to fantasy baseball- let's talk about early season reactionaries. Every league has a guy who sprints to the waiver wire after a guy like Alejandro De Aza hits 2 bombs on opening day. In the 2 leagues we're in we've already seen the likes of Jason Grilli, Jared Cosart and Stephen Vogt picked up after one day of games played. One day. Now, no fantasy sports player can get overly critical of this move. Sometimes everybody players the waiver wire fool, no exception to the rule. That said, what is, if any, the right approach to early season reactions? To use a personal example I picked up Chris Davis about 3 days before the 2013 season started simply because he was still there, he then went on to hit 50 bombs. I also was lucky enough to grab Edwin Encarnacion in his breakout season. However, for every Edwin, there is a Jack Cust. This is particularly detrimental in leagues that limit transactions. In a fantasy hockey league I gambled on picking up San Jose Sharks goalie Alex Skalock in the first week of the season. he was eventually relegated to back up duties and late in the season when I had a hunch on Andrew Hammond, affectionately known as "The Hamburgler", I was unable to pick him up as I had hit my transaction limits. he went on to set an NHL record for consecutive wins for a goalie in his first starts, and vaulted the Ottawa Senators into playoff contention. And the guy who got Hammond? Won the league.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">So a few questions arise- how do you gauge who to pick up and how long do you wait? Do you go with the "dance with the girl that brung ya" philosophy early on and see how your team takes shape, or do you approach your team as a moldable work in progress than can only be perfected by tinkering? Fantasy baseball and fantasy hockey offer long seasons, generally deep free agent pools and multiple stat categories from which to pull. Fantasy football is more random and determined by the draft. Ask Fantasy Football owners who lost Tom Brady week 1 of 2008 how that went. Though of course there are exceptions. Anyone who grabbed CJ Anderson likely went into the playoffs. </span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Uncle Bones</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Ah yes, the early season fantasy gold rush. Forever immortalized by the waiver wire movement of one <i><a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/02/because-fantasy-baseball.html" target="_blank">Emilo Bonifacio</a>.</i> In my opinion there are really 3 different types of waiver wire moves:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>1. The Hot Name: </b>This is EMILO's!!! wheel house. This a move that happens at 11:00 at night on Opening Day. Now at first blush I get the enthusiasm. Opening Day is great. You've invested months thinking about baseball and weeks pondering the fantasy baseball roster you've built only to have it all come to a head on one single day. Except, that the baseball season is only .006 % over. That's it. One game represents less than one percentage point of the entire season. So just because Alejandro De Aza hits 2 HR's or EMILO!!! hits 2 triples or Kyle Kendrick's lifeless corpse wasn't dumped into Lake Michigan doesn't mean that you fly to the waiver wire for the next big thing. It's a long season, and like you pointed out this approach can quickly burn up your waiver budget. Especially when you consider that most of these players will be back on the waiver wire by the end of April.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>2. Just Lucky:</b> I believe that your Chris Davis move falls into this category. Davis was a post hype prospect at that point and no one expected much. He probably went undrafted in most leagues, but you had a spot to fill and he was there. Same for Encarnacion. He was a decent player in Cincy, but nothing like what we think of him now. Must be something in that Canadian water... Speaking of Canada, I had a similar stroke of luck with the Ragin' Canajun Erik Bedard back in 2007. I scooped him up on the waiver wire a week before the season started. He went on to strike out 221 that season and lead that particular league in scoring for pitchers. He was never that good again, but for one fleeting moment, greatness. I also had similar luck with in an in-season grab for Carlos Gonzalez in 2011. In that case I was just looking to upgrade from Torii Hunter and CarGo's floor represented Hunter's ceiling. I rode to the penthouse with Gonzalez that year only to be stuck wallowing in the basement for several years to come as I continued to count on his greatness.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>3. Scouting, Patience & Dedication:</b> This is the most difficult route to using the waiver wire. It is so difficult because of the waiver wire moves 1 & 2. You can have a guy on your radar since spring training, keep tabs on him as he gets called up, starts seeing regular AB's, finally seems poised for a break-out and WHAM! <i>Billy's Baseballers </i>read his name on Scott White's Start'em/Sit'em and snatches him up. Not to mention how hard it is to keep tabs on all the fringe players of all 30 teams. I can go into Triple-A and a little Double-A depth for the Red Sox and Triple-A for the Twins, but for everybody else? Bitch, please. There's only so much time in the day. On top of that, you can only follow a name for so long before you get jumped.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">There is however one owner in one of our leagues who is a waiver wire master. He doesn't always know which teams are NL or AL and he doesn't know who any of the "hot" prospects are. He's also been routinely criticized for his draft picks, team names, and chat room banter, but he wins more than anybody else. His secret? All he does is look at numbers. He doesn't know the names. I'm not sure he even knows the teams half the time, but he when he uses the waiver wire it works. Can you guess who it is?</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Josh</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Erik Bedard in the mid 00s was like Guns N Roses around Appetite for Destruction. Heralded, hyped, dangerous, beloved. Then, it all came crashing down rather spectacularly and quickly. Maybe he can try to resurrect his career as a Knuckleballer and go for a Chinese Democracy type of thing</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Sure, we all know that owner you're describing. There's something to be said for a cold, by the numbers approach. It removes emotion from the process. We all know the owners who reach for guys who are on their favorite teams. Sammy Watkins went in the 3rd round of a fantasy football draft I was in last year. Third. Round. Mind boggling. Sticking to the numbers avoids stuff like that. However, an owner who isn't keeping up on the story beyond the numbers is ultimately damaging himself. For example, had you taken that approach with Adam Wainwright this year, would you not have spent close to $35 for him in an auction league? Paying for last years stats while ignoring what other data about aging pitchers tells us? This same approach sparked the infamous "Jake Arrieta over Cabrera and Stanton pick" that we discussed a few posts back. The guy wanted pitching so he took it, regardless of what the other numbers about the value of hitters say. When we talk about "all he does is look at numbers" it's highly dependent on what numbers he or she is looking at. </span><div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Interesting confluence of ideas here- I am going to the Pawtucket Red Sox/Buffalo Bisons game next week. I am quite excited to see Rusney Castillo and Blake Swihart live, and possibly Henry Owens or Bryan Johnson if the matchups align. How does one handle in person viewings of prospects, or major league players, and balance them with stats? How does one keep expectations in line from both a fantasy and real life perspective? If Castillo hits 3 bombs, am I going to be TOO excited? We all know about small sample sizes, but we're human beings and emotion factors in. It would be hard to shake watching a 3 HR performance. As Maya Angelou once said "People will forget what you said. People will forget what you did. But people will never forget how you made them feel." </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I'd like to think that's the first time Maya Angelou has been quoted in a fantasy baseball blog. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Uncle Bones</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A more talented writer than you or I may be able to create an entire baseball blog using Maya Angelou quotes and references. I think I would call it "I know why the caged bird is way off base" and it would likely tread such a fine line of racial and cultural appropriateness that mortal men would find too exhausting for recreational work. So instead we can relish in the quote, feel smart for a minute, and then get back to infantile task at hand...</span><div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As much as I'd love to get into a "3 Kinds of People You Find At a Minor League Baseball Game" diatribe, I'll focus on the experience more specific to your point. For your situation, understanding the narrative of the organization and the season is crucial to the enjoyment of the experience. With that being said, its very important to understand that you are watching one game of a very long season between players who have a wider variance in talent than you might find at the major league level. In other words anything can and will happen and it probably doesn't mean squat.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">One example (and there are many) that best illustrates this point is the 2013 that Chris "Return of the Mack" Colabello spent at Triple-A Rochester. That season Colabello hit .352 with an OPS of 1.066 to go along with 24 HR's and 76 RBI's in 391 PA's. He also took home the hardware for International League MVP. It was a nice story and he helped the Red Wings make the playoffs (coincidentally where I also saw Clay Buchholz pitch on a rehab assignment). Any one who saw that season would have thought that Colabello was on track for big things, except that he was 29 that season and it was his first year at Triple-A after kicking around independent ball for 8 YEARS. He did take down the <a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/02/because-fantasy-baseball.html" target="_blank">Emilo Bonifiacio Award for Early Season Excellence</a> in 2014, but has struggled so much that he got a hero's welcome when he returned to Rochester later that same season.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Other things that you might see at a minor league baseball game:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Trevor Bauer giving up 6 runs in 2 IP</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Daniel Bard walking 5 straight batters</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Phil Humber throwing a 1 hit complete game shut-out</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Will Middlebrooks smacking line drives all over the field</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Sal Fasano's spectacular mustache</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Grady Sizemore going 0-4</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A 19 year old Bryce Harper being booed by a Tuesday in April crowd of roughly 1,500</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">6 pitcher combing for a no-hitter that started on May 8th & ended on July 21st</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A player in your starting fantasy baseball roster that you had no idea had been sent to the minors</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">My advice, separate what you know about baseball from what secret you hope to discover for fantasy baseball. Your understanding of the narrative will greatly enhance your viewing experience because you will understand who you are watching and why. However, to try and glean a competitive edge in a fantasy baseball league from 4 AB's or 6 IP's against competition of questionable quality? You'll make yourself crazy. You'll trick yourself into seeing things that aren't there. And probably worst of all, you'll miss out on the enjoyment of watching players today that will be all but unaccessible by as soon as even the end of the summer.</span></div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-75082237644909575572015-04-07T10:54:00.003-07:002015-04-07T10:56:52.061-07:00Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.3<h2>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.</td></tr>
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Josh</span></b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;">I think on a very direct player for player, in a vacuum style of evaluation, the Dodgers won this trade. The 2 big prizes for the Sox in that trade, Webster and De La Rosa, were turned into Wade Miley, a guy expected to be a serviceable #4 and nothing else. A Gon is in the heart of the Dodgers order and a huge key to their success. However, things don't exist in a vacuum and the Sox won this trade in the big picture purely for the financial relief it gave them. The Carl Crawford signing was a black eye on the Theo Epstein era, it was as if The Eagles decided to end their career on a salsa covers album. Despite all the amazing things they accomplished, recency effect is a real thing and people only remember the beginnings and ends of things. This trade got the team out from under the majority of that contract. As much as all Sox fans love Josh beckett for 2007, his surly attitude only works when he's pitching well. He had worn out his welcome in Boston. The biggest benefit of this trade was of course the financial bailout that came with it, the scale of which we haven't seen since the financial crisis. With the Dodgers playing the role of the federal government,the money saved allowed the Sox to go on a unique spending spree, one of value and volume, that lead to the 2013 World Series....and then finishing last place in 2014. The Ben Cherington era has been all or nothing so far, and this year it appears as if he's going all in on the "all" part again. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Uncle Bones</span></b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;">In the end it would seem to me that the "Great Dodgers-Red Sox Swap of 2012" was one of those odd baseball trades where every one was a winner, but for different reasons. It shows how much the financial aspects of the game are as much of a factor when it comes to roster building and player movement as the actual talent of the player. Basketball has it to a certain extent, but now have a system in place for bailing out owners and GM's who lose their minds on contracts. I'm sure hockey has something... I mean the shut down the whole sport because ownership thought players were making too much... And the NFL, my God. Those players make peanuts compared to what baseball players make, can be cut at a moments notice AND football the most profitable sport in America.</span><br />
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But none of that in baseball. You sign a contract and that money is guaranteed and you typically stay on a roster until the contract is over (although sometimes a team will each money for a year). Thats one of the things that makes the Red Sox current approach to roster building so fascinating. They clearly have a plan and they are sticking to it.</div>
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Without rehashing the Red Sox moves of the last the years I'm gonna hone in on the recently announced Rick Porcello deal. Understanding this whole deal starts with Jon Lester around this time last year when he had turned down what seemed to be a low ball offer from the Sox for something around 4yrs/$70 mil. I believe that Red Sox when they say that this was just a starting number, but I also don't blame Lester's team for tabling the whole thing. He knew he'd make way more money than that and even if he blew his arm out on Opening Day, the Sox would still likely sign him for that.</div>
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So on it went, with the Sox falling out of contention and ultimately dealing an age 30 Lester to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes who I also believe that the Red Sox were interested in retaining (at the right price). I also think that they were curious in feeling out Cespedes with the impending bidding wars for other Cuban players like Rusney Castillo, Yosmany Thomas, and Yoan Moncada on the horizon. They had just missed out on sensation Jose Abreu and they didn't want to be left holding the bag again. Then by the offseason w/ Ramirez and Castillo in the fold, Betts on the horizon, and Victorino still kicking about, the Red Sox traded Cespedes for Rick Porcello. Porcello who has great peripheral numbers and who thrives with a great defense behind him. Porcello who will be 26 this season with the kind of easy delivery that typically avoids the DL.</div>
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The Red Sox then gave Porcello the same money they wanted to give Lester except now they are paying for all of his years up to age 30 instead of all of the years after 30. And while that seems like a shocking number at first, watch what Jordan Zimmermann (30 in 2016), Johnny Cueto (30 in 2016), Ian Kennedy (31 in 2016), Jeff Samardzija (31 in 2016), David Price (30 in 2016), Mat Latos (28 in 2016) get next off season. The list is huge, I could go on. The Red Sox already have 3 rotation spots locked up for next year (assuming they pick up Buchholz's option and that Joe Kelly isn't starting next year; either way) with atleast 2-3 pitchers at Triple A who could fill the void. Or they could take a short term plunge on any of the starting FA's who miss out next year's on bonanza.</div>
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The Yankees have no such options. They are already down one starting pitcher, the 35 year old Chris Capuano, are stuck with a broken CC Sabathia, and a more than likely TJ bound Tanaka. Then again they've got Pineda & Nova, 2 pitchers under 30 who have yet to pitch a whole season. Oh and Nate Evoldi who might want to just sign baseball's before he throws them as they could make great collector's items as they fly over the right field wall at Yankees stadium. They are going to have to sign at least one or two of the marquee pitching FA's if they are serious about contending and they will probably pay sticker only to be left to 2 broken down 35 year old pitchers 5 years from now.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Josh</b></span></div>
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All valid points. The Yanks have been in "should have rebuilt" mode for a few years, and now are definitely in that mode. That is not a fanbase that is necessarily comfortable in a rebuild.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">ICYMI</span></b></div>
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<a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/04/click-bait-worthy-mlb-predictions.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a><br />
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<a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/04/click-bait-worthy-mlb-predictions-pt2.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a></div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-41350987946349188002015-04-03T18:56:00.000-07:002015-04-03T18:56:25.303-07:00Why Do We Think We Know Better Than Yankees?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Image result for masahiro tanaka" height="273" 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" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ooo... That looks painful</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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By all accounts the New York Yankees are the model franchise of all North American professional sports. They have won 27 World Series Championships. Next closest in all of the major North American franchises is the Montreal Canadians of the NHL with 24. Followed by the NBA's own Lakers and Celtics with 17 a piece. The next MLB team down the list? The St. Louis Cardinals with 10. That's right, the New York Yankees have 17 more championships than the next closest team in their league. They know how to win baseball games and they've been doing it for a very long time.</div>
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So why do we, and by we I mean the fantasy baseball community, baseball chattering class, baseball bloggers, casual fans, people on the street and the random J-Pop stars that I follow in Twitter seem to think that we all know better than the Yankees? Why are we all so convinced the Masahiro Tanaka will not last the entire 2015 season? The Yankees have actually talked to Tanaka. They have seen his medical records, his x-rays, and the size shirts he wears. They know everything there is to know about him and the 27 time World Series Champion New York Yankees believe that letting Tanaka pitch this season is A-O-K. Why?</div>
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Before we try and answer that question, lets try to figure out why we think we're so right. Back in July of 2014 after lighting the league on fire, Masahiro Tanaka went down with a partially torn ligament in his throwing elbow. The kind of injury that usually results in Tommy John surgery for the majority of players, pitchers or otherwise. If you've gotten this far into the article and can point an instance of a pitcher who avoided TJ after a partially torn UCL please chime in. I will fix this post and cite you as a source. I know its happened once or twice, but for the most part after teams get that 2nd opinion on the damaged UCL, its surgery. Teams usually figure that its easier to bite that 12-18 months recovery time than to have a 2 month recovery followed a questionable return and then probably a visit from TJ anyway. So please, once again, if you have a case where a pitcher with a torn or partially torn UCL has come back and pitched effectively hit me up. I'd love to hear it. </div>
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The Yankees knew all that. They're not dumb. They have won 27 World Series titles after all. But instead they opted for rest and rehab. Maybe it was because they wanted to get the most use out of their brand new $155 million investment. Maybe it was because they were trying keep the Derek Jeter retirement tour chugging along as if it wasn't a lost season. Or maybe they really just thought that Tanaka could heal his ligament without changing how he threw a baseball.</div>
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To be clear, I understand why the Yankees would want as much Masahiro Tanaka as they can get. The first 3 months of the 2014 season he posted a 2.10 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and 127 K's in 115.2 innings (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/33150/masahiro-tanaka" target="_blank">ESPN</a>). He made hitters look silly and he won 13 games which for only throwing just a hair over 130 innings in pretty good. There's a lot to like there, but once the elbow injury surfaced Tanaka nose-dived in a big way to the point where the Yankees shut him down all together just a 7 innings in to his September return.</div>
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So what do the Yankees know that the rest of the baseball world doesn't? I'm afraid nothing. These are not your father's Reggie Jackson, Thurman Munson, work hard, come through in the clutch Yankees. Nor are these your grandfather's outclass, out-talent, just a million times better than anyone Yankees. Hell, these are not even your older brother's Core4, Mike Mussina, Paul O'Neill and Bernie Williams belong in the Hall of Fame Yankees. This is the mostly 30+/$20 mil a year, mediocre at best farm system, grasping at straws, 27 time World Series Champion Yankees. And while those 27 World Series Championship are a nice thing to hang your hat on (or in most cases throw in every one else's face), they don't do diddly-squat for them this year, next year or any year in the future. </div>
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I think the bottom line reason that Masahiro Tanaka is still pitching for the Yankees and not recovering from a mid-July TJ surgery is because the Yankees have no other options. Its probably true that a slightly above replacement level Tanaka is better than no Tanaka. And he's probably better than anybody else the Yankees could trot out there right now. I don't blame them for not getting deep with Lester or Scherzer this off-season. Especially considering the FA class hitting the market in 2016 and the money they have coming off the books in the next 3 years. Unfortunately, a reduced Tanaka gets them no closer to the playoffs this season than no Tanaka will get them. But then again, these are your grasping at straws, let's see what sticks to the wall, we'll still cash in on merch sales, 27 time World Series Champion Yankees.</div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-84727121828309037602015-04-03T17:05:00.002-07:002015-04-07T10:55:19.954-07:00Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.2<h2>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><img alt="Image result for mound visit" height="225" src="https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTuYPDvZDkTQNA84kwspkRM-vGqcx8GWO9G0DImZkRplvtsaJ9BRQ" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Uncle Bones</b></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">To me, saying that baseball should have LESS playoff teams because you want to see the 2 teams with the best record in the World Series is kinda like arguing that gay marriage should be illegal because being attracted to a person of the same sex might be contagious and that the science is still out on that one because no one has done the research yet. In other words, its absurd. Its also like saying that there are too many billboards at the stadiums as if teams shouldn't be trying to maximize their returns at every opportunity.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Let me remind you and anyone who might read this that the MLB season is 162 games long with each team playing 81 home games. Its not easy work getting butts in those seats and eyes on those games day in day out. Going to a baseball game is not an inexpensive proposition and sitting through 162 3 1/2-4 hour baseball games on TV is no treat either, ESPECIALLY when you are watching a team that is either not competitive or not competitive enough so for a shot at the post season.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is compounded when you think about how regional of a sport baseball is. Yes, the Yankees, Red Sox, and to an extent the Braves have done a great job at expanding their national appeal, but very few people outside of Houston are Astros fans. Same goes for the Royals, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, etc. The longer into the season fans of these teams are able to stay engaged in their team the better. Not only is it the best thing for business, but its the best things for the fans relationships with those teams.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Our defending American League Champion Kansas City Royals are a prime example of this. Before our time the Royals were often considered the AAAA team for the New York Yankees as so much of their talent wound up in NY before it had a chance to win in Kansas City. Then they held on to players in the '80's (when baseball put in ALCS & NLCS) and won, but then in our lifetime we say the same thing happen again. Carlos Betran, Johnny Damon, Zack Grienke, the list goes on, shipped out of town because the Royals didn't want to spend the money on players when they weren't going to compete. Then what happened in 2014? Bolstered by a trade that brought in Major League talent, the Royals hung in it all the way to end, got hot in the playoffs and the rest his history. If there was not 2 Wild Card spots and maybe only 2 teams from each league made the team then Shields would have been dealt and the Royals would have been rebuilding again.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">More playoff spots means more teams in contention, more eyes on the product and more fans maintaining an interest year after year. Seems like a smart strategy for a sport that has an average fan base the sits right around the mid 50's. But here's a question for you. Right now MLB has 5-ish playoff spot per league. Too many to some, but still much less than the NBA or NHL and only 1 less that the NFL. How many playoff teams is too man? Sure long term fan engagement is great, but how excited are most fans when their team locks down the 8-seed in the NBA? I tend to follow a lot of Boston media and some folks are wondering whats up with the Celtics approaching the 8-seed in the East. I know the Celts are rebuilding, but is it that bad that the team might be ahead of its time frame? And does sending half of the conferences' team to the playoffs cheapen the whole experience?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Josh</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As a lifelong hockey fan, I can say throwing 16 teams in the playoff mix is nothing short of awesome. It differs from the NBA in the sense that low seeds regularly have a chance. Bottom seeds have made it to the cup, and won it. But hockey is different, they've had multiple teams come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the playoffs. Remember when the Red Sox did that it was a huge story, but it actually has happened in hockey enough to the point where it's a fun story, not a monumental one. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">That said, the length of baseball games doesn't lend itself to more playoff games. I love a good 5 hour late october slog as much as any baseball stalwart, but that doesnt play to the casual fan. Plus when your team is in the playoffs, it's a different vibe sport to sport. Overtime hockey is, in my opinion, the only thing that matches the anxiety, dread, and excitement of late inning playoff baseball. Baseball's "slowness" just lends itself to heightened wonder and anxious pacing in the playoffs. The "slow" moments are building up to one moment where everything can change (Cue Don Henley's "in a new york munute...oohh we wooo...) If the Red Sox had to play MORE games in October, do you really think you could stomach that? Probably, but you might have some explaining to do when you walk into work the next day wearing one shoe and 3 day scruff going. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">In regards to your Shields comment, did the pundits who bashed the Royals for that trade ever double back on their words? Or did they just slink away like the guy who starts a fight and lets his friends finish it? The whole argument against it was the years of control of Wil Myers.....who the Rays recently traded. That trade proved to me that snap judgments on organizational moves are good for sound bites and tweet headlines in the 24 news cycle, but they take years to play out and truly evaluate. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Uncle Bones</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The fact that baseball has only had 1 team to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series says two things. One of which being that there just haven't been nearly the same number of playoff series that hockey and basketball have seen. And two, the difference between good teams and good enough teams is probably pretty wide.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Now imagine if 8 teams from BOTH the National League and the American League made the playoffs in 2014. How excited are you right now thinking about a 5 game series between the Angels and the Yankees and the Nationals and the Mets. That's right, both NY teams would have made the playoffs as 8 cedes and both teams would have gotten snuffed out like a spider in a day care. And if that's not bad enough consider that the 7 & 8 cedes in the NL both would have had a 79-83 record. All that to add another week and a half to a season that already ends in early November. Eck...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I do think its funny that you brought up having a rooting interest in October baseball. I remember in September of 2013 as the Red Sox marched towards the playoffs thinking about how my life was about to change in ways I wasn't prepared for in the next month. Sure enough, there I was arguing with strangers about the proper application of runner interference & texting you to discuss the Sox bullpen situation while at my wife's birthday dinner. October baseball does things to me and not all of them are good.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As far as grading trades go, talking heads gotta make noise (its why they're there), but its impossible to grade a trade when it happens, 24 hours after it happens, a whole year after it happens. Baseball is the ultimate long game. Its one of the reasons why advance stats took hold here first. There are a lot of games and players can spend a lot of time in an organization. So while its tempting, and some times necessary (if its your job) to pass judgement on a single transaction moments after it happens everyone knows you're just talking to be heard.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Now for fun, almost 3 years later tell me who won this trade:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Red Sox acquire Allen Webster, Ruby De La Rosa, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Jerry Sands & James Loney</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Dodgers acquire Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett & Nick Punto</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Red Sox also sent $12 million. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Who won? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/04/click-bait-worthy-mlb-predictions-pt3.html" target="_blank">Part 3 </a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/04/click-bait-worthy-mlb-predictions.html" target="_blank">ICYM pt.1</a></span></div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-48270845484180485232015-04-03T17:04:00.003-07:002015-04-03T17:08:14.618-07:00Click-Bait Worthy MLB Predictions pt.1<h2>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><img alt="Image result for mound visit" height="225" src="https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTuYPDvZDkTQNA84kwspkRM-vGqcx8GWO9G0DImZkRplvtsaJ9BRQ" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">But Coach, I only sent that pic to one girl.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Josh</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Do we dare submit our predictions and succumb to the pressures of clickbait, newsworthiness and timeliness? I say yes! Who are we to flout the conventions of blogging. here are my mildly unscientific predictions</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL East: Red Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL Central: Indians</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL West: Mariners</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL Wildcard game LA Angels over Chicago White Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL East: Nationals</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL Central: Pirates</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL West: Dodgers</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL Wildcards: Marlins over Padres</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">ALCS- Red Sox over Mariners</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NLCS- Nationals over Marlins</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">World Series- Nationals over Red Sox in 6</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL ROY- Carlos Rodon</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL ROY- Kris Bryant</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL Cy Young- Felix Hernandez</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL Cy Young- Jordan Zimmermann </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL MVP: Mike Trout</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton </span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">Yes I realize picking against Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young is enough to warrant Lucy from the Peanuts "5 cents for Psychiatry" type of help, but he has to slow down sooner or later right? Zimmermann is the Joe Walsh of the Nationals staff, and Strasburg and Scherzer are Don Henley and Glenn Frey. Sure Fry and Henley were the principals, but you </span><span style="color: #222222;">don't</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;"> have Hotel California without Walsh's solo. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Uncle Bones</span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">The true function of the internet is not to expose people to new ideas that they didn't know existed, its provide the content that reinforces the beliefs and interests that they already had. Oh and cat videos. Since no one writes any comments, clicks are the only feedback available. And we love feedback.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL East - Baltimore Orioles</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Rotation solid with sufficient young upside and the offense should be good enough to feast on a division of average to poor pitching.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL Central - Chicago White Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Top 3 starters known commodities & will mix and match the rest. O unbalanced, but the top of the lineup will carry that team.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL West - Seattle Mariners</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Its an easy bandwagon to get on when you consider the questions that surround the rest of the division.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL WC1 - Boston Red Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Line-up will mash, but back end of rotation will be in flux all year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL WC2 - Cleveland Indians</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Only because a one game playoff between Francona and Farrell is what we as baseball fans deserve.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL East - Washington Nationals</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I mean, come on.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL Central - Pittsburgh Pirates</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This team does to many things right to mucking around that Wild Card spot forever.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL West- LA Dodgers</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This team will still get it done despite Don Mattingly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL WC1 - St. Louis Cardinals</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I can never count them out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL WC2 - San Diego Padres</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I think the edge the Cubs on Karma. Padres are clearly all in, Cubs are too reliant on young players.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL WC Game - Red Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Not that Farrell deserves it more than Tito, they'll just hit and hit and hit...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL WC Game - Cardinals</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Been there, done that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">ALDS - White Sox v. Orioles</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">White Sox - Top 3 starters too much in a 5 game series</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">ALDS - Mariners v. Red Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Red Sox - I know pitching wins championships, but after Felix who do you really count on in that rotation? Plus Red Sox will be a wrecking crew by then.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NLDS - Pirates v. Dodgers</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Pirates - Mattingly finally does them in.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NLDS - Nationals v. Cardinals</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Nationals - Too much pitching. Too much offense.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">ALCS - White Sox v. Red Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Red Sox - I like the White Sox, but I don't like them that much.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NLCS - Nationals v. Pirates</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Nationals - As smart and tough as the Pirates are that Nats are just overwhelming</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">World Series - Nationals v. Red Sox</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is where the Red Sox starting rotation minus a huge move or 2 will be undone. A healthy Nats team can hang offensively and the pitching is just that much better.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Washington Nationals as your World Series Champions!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL ROY: Rusney Castillo (Betts used up his eligibility last season)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL Cy Young: Chris Sale</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">AL MVP: Mike Trout</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL ROY: Joc Pedersen</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I read your picks this morning and then went about my day so as to intentionally forget what you had written. I was amused to go back and see that we both had the Nats over the Red Sox in the World Series. Its like, "Yep, we're homers, but we're not that big of homers".</span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">One take away that I had from this whole exercise was really thinking long and hard about the AL Central and coming away not liking any of the teams all that much. So much can go wrong for the Tigers and so much has to go right for the Tribe. The White Sox are really unbalanced and we didn't even mention the AL Camp Royals or red headed stepchild Twins. That division will be interesting and I </span><span style="color: #222222;">wouldn't</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;"> be shocked if the team that wins it only does it with 88 wins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Now all we need is a title about naked celebrities and our attempt at click bate will be complete.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Josh</span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">I had a tough time NOT picking the Cardinals for the NL Central. Somehow they get it together every year, and a big piece in their lineup in Matt Carpenter is probably due for a </span><span style="color: #222222;">bounce back</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">, as is Wacha. I know in September we'll be watching them close a 5 game gap in like 12 games and be sitting here saying "I told you so" as the pundits pontificate about how the Cardinals pump their fists on home runs THE RIGHT WAY and Normal Rockwell makes a painting about it</span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">Can we talk about the random nature of the baseball playoffs for a minute? After reading our predictions I realized that by the time we actually get to October, someone like the Reds will be on a run that no one saw coming, Felix Hernandez will be out for the year, and the A's will have traded half their roster. We've seen wild cards win the past few years. Ultimately the best team during the season isn't really rewarded for anything, and all it takes is a team getting hot at the right time. I have no personal problem with this as it keeps </span><span style="color: #222222;">fan bases</span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> engaged longer, but I've heard some lament that they'd rather see the truly best teams in the world series. I don't know, </span>isn't<span style="font-family: inherit;"> randomness what makes sports kinda fun? </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/04/click-bait-worthy-mlb-predictions-pt2.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a></span></div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-24152909997731934152015-03-30T17:42:00.001-07:002015-03-30T17:42:46.414-07:00Baseball Getting the Business End<h2>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span><br />
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i><br />
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<b>Uncle Bones</b><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Since we seem to be trending towards the business side of things here a bit check out this link to Forbes valuations of all the MLB franchises:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/#page:1_sort:0_direction:asc_search" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://www.forbes.com/mlb-<wbr></wbr>valuations/#page:1_sort:0_<wbr></wbr>direction:asc_search</a>:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Granted, this is only a snapshot of an organization's financial health, but I'm still curious if any of these numbers jump off the page at you. (Beyond the $ values which are largely hypothetical)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Pay particular attention to the teams who are operating in the red this season. A few of them are floating right around breaking even, but a some others like the Phillies, Tigers & Blue Jays are operating at major losses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Does MLB owe it to its consumers to ensure that these franchises have a long term plan to get in the black? Or is it really OK for an owner or ownership group to throw money around like they're Rick Ross at a strip club until they're like MC Hammer at the soup kitchen?</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Josh</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I feel like you were lofting a Detroit poverty joke over the plate for me, but I am going to Joey Votto that one and let it go by, hoping to earn the walk. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I always find the idea of "owing" consumers interesting. What DOES a team owe it's fans in general? Going back to the tanking debate, some might say that the team owes it's fans the best product they can put on the field night in and night out. OR does the team owe them long term sustainability, which is what tanking is working toward? I tend to agree with the latter. Earlier in the year Buster Olney pointed out that Joe Girardi hit Jeter second in the lineup due to "organizational pressures." In that case, did the team owe it's fans the best line up possible, or did it owe them the ability to watch a legend go out on his own terms? The line is murky at best, totally open ended at worst. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">That wasn't a filibuster, but more of an establishment of how debatable the idea of "owing" your fans something is. I do believe in owing them long term sustainability. I live in Buffalo, and until Terry Pegula fracked his way into our hearts, we lived with a constant dread of the Buffalo Bills moving. Once the Bills started playing games in Toronto, the dread went from minor anxiety to full blown freakout. Much like the "presence" in the current horror hit It Follows, the fear was ongoing, ever present and impossible to shake. When the Pegula deal was announced, grown men called into the local radio station crying tears of joy. So does a team owe it's fans peace of mind? Ideally yes, but this idea is better in theory than in practice. Just ask San Diego Chargers and St Louis Rams fans how they feel right now. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">In regards to the financial numbers, if anything I took away that baseball is in the age of parity. Look at the Royals and Athletics, two contenders last year operating with low payroll and showing financial health. The Mets, Phillies and Yankees appear in the top 10 franchises, further proof that money buys you a chance but guarantees you nothing in baseball. Parity rewards fans. The NFL probably likes the Pats and Seahawks playing in the super bowl, but poll casual fans outside of those two fan bases and I'd wager you hear about how they're tired of seeing those teams in the finals. Who WASN'T excited watching the Royals last year, you know? </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Uncle Bones</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Being a Bills fan the last 10 years was sort of like having a loved one being diagnosed with a terminal illness. We felt like it was just a matter of time before they were gone, but we really didn't know when or how exactly we would deal with it. Then suddenly a pop-up billionaire swooped in with the miracle cure and here we are. Personally, I had already started the "moving on" process only to be sucked right back in. I'm still not sure how I feel about it given my other apprehensions surrounding the NFL, but I'm fairly sure I'll be tuned in come September.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I like to pretend that I can disassociate the emotion of being a fan with the business realities of professional sports, but it's not quite that simple. I think what surprised me the most about that list was the total valuation of all the MLB teams combined that fell somewhere around $36 billion give or take. Theoretically, should MLB be posted for public trading it would fetch around that number for an IPO, but I suspect it might creep up a little higher than that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">That's seems like a lot of money and it is, but it still less that half of what Facebook was offered for. That's crazy to me. MLB has an over 100 year history and has been an American establishment as long as any who is alive can remember. Facebook has been on the planet for the third of the time that you and I have been and I can't even hold it in my hand. I've never attended a Facebook, its not on TV, it only exists on the Internet and something tells me that in 40 years we won't be talking about the comment that Parker liked that Madison made about the picture Lily posted of her cat's birthday cake in the same way we still talk about 1975 World Series.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">So yeah, baseball is a business and it's a big one, but there are bigger ones out there. I was also surprised to see that some teams didn't make money last year. I know that there are debt issues attached to that math, but what it reminds me is that you don't buy a sports team to necessary make money. Its kinda like the ultimate rich guy status symbol. You know you're rich when you own a team and so does everyone else.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">That also says to me that if you cared enough to buy a sports team then you are probably a fan yourself. And as a fan you would want the team that you own to win as much as possible. I wouldn't want to own a loser. Some people might be fine with it, but it would piss me right off.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Keep that in mind when I own (sponsor) a slew of Little League teams. You'll just hear in the news that "Local man ejected from LL game again", but truth will be that I was just doing everything in my power to urge those little tykes to victory. Oh and also to grow my brand.</span></div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-10953062454125527952015-03-28T19:29:00.001-07:002015-03-28T19:29:32.482-07:00Pete Rose For Dummies<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Image result for pete rose" height="223" 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" 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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">'There's only one pinch hitter who can win this game and his name is Pete Rose'</td></tr>
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If you've been around long enough to remember Pete Rose as an actual baseball player you probably have fond memories of him. If not, I better not hear a peep about 'playing the game the right way' because in researching this piece it sure sounds like Pete Rose went out and played the game the 'right way' every damn day. You don't record 4,256 base hits by lolly-gagging it down the line. You don't make the All Star team at 5 different positions if you're not a team first guy. And you don't plow through a catcher in an All Star game if you don't care about winning more than anything else. If that's not 'playing the game the right way', then I don't know what the definition is.</div>
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But if you're not someone who remembers baseball from the 60's and 70's then Pete Rose is something more like a cartoon character. He's sort of like the Michael Jackson of baseball. While Rose was doing his thing he was great, one of the all time greats, but people's opinion of him changed after certain things came to light. To be clear, I am not comparing the alleged crimes of either man to the other, only how are perceptions of these men have changed. Michael was never the same musician and Rose was never officially a baseball man again, but both persisted in the peripheral, periodically grabbing our attention in passing.</div>
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However, while Michael's existence lent itself to a short lifespan, Rose has mad the absolute best of the hand he's been dealt. He's largely gone the Donald Trump route by using his heyday exploits combined with savvy marketing to continue to make a living off his image. According to Wikipedia, Rose is able to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Rose" target="_blank">pull in close to $1 Million a year for just being Pete Rose</a>. For that I give him a lot of credit, but then again you don't earn the nickname 'Charlie Hustle' because you sit around on your ass all day.</div>
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Now, I'm not here to excuse away what Pete Rose did. He bet on baseball while he was an active player and manager and the sport has always had a sore spot for that. It's probably because baseball is such a precise sport dependent on so many single moments, controllable by individuals that even the smallest hint of maleficence for profit feels like such a betrayal. There have been very clear rules in place in baseball regarding gambling for a very long time and Pete Rose broke them. Whether or not you agree that the punishment fits the crime, the rules were on the books and Rose himself agreed to the banishment.</div>
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Bud Selig seemingly had no interest in entertaining the idea of a baseball world with Pete Rose as a card carrying member. I get where he's coming from. During Selig's tenure baseball went corporate. Once a sport in decline Selig shepherded an era with unprecedented revenue and player salary growth combined with a 20 year period without any labor disruptions. Guys with Rose's reputation would have been bad for business. The thing is though, Selig wasn't exactly playing on the level either. PED use was rampant during his time as commissioner and he did nothing to stop it until after all the new stadiums were built and public pressure finally made it a priority. Once again, I don't necessarily blame Selig fom handling the situation that way. There's a fine line between integrity and opportunity, and when you're playing a game for a living opportunity weighs. </div>
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New commissioner Rob Manfred recognizes the position MLB is in now regarding Rose, PED's and the future of the game. We've already seen his openness to do something about the pace of play, at least discuss the affects of defensive positioning and shifts and he let Will Farrell fly by helicopter to different Spring Training games in a charity stunt that was far more interesting that last summer's 'look at me fest' Ice Bucket Challenge. Manfred has a clear idea of where things are going, what the sport needs and how baseball's position regarding Rose has changed at the conclusion of the PED era.</div>
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Baseball can no longer sit back an claim that Rose has no place in the sport because he's a gambling addict. Yes what Rose did was bad for the game, but on a whole his contribution to the game has been an unequivocal positive. Just like with PED's. Does it send the wrong message to the children? Sure. Did it prolong the careers of otherwise great players? Probably. Did it elevate some meh players to the spotlight? Maybe. Did it drive ticket sales, merchandise sales, advertising sales, TV contracts? Yep. Because at the end of the day teams win, but stars sell. Just ask Brian Wilson or Pablo Sandoval.</div>
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Probably the funniest thing that I heard during my podcast research for Fantasy Baseball season this year was the claim that if Pete Rose was reinstated he would just start gambling on baseball again. I get that these guys look at baseball in a different way, but that doesn't make a lick of sense. Pete Rose could be betting on baseball right now and maybe he is. Its not like if he got reinstated tomorrow that teams would be lining up to hire him as a manager, GM, team liaison, or beer guy. It ain't gonna happen. The Reds might have a welcome back ceremony or Phillies might do something because it would be the most entertaining baseball story in Philly this season, but Rose's days as a paid baseball employee are over.</div>
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Funny thing is that reinstating Rose might actually be the worst thing for him financially. Right now he is able to make a good living on being the outcast. The best player who ever played who cannot get into the Hall of Fame. He goes to Cooperstown every year and signs autographs. He makes commercials. Hell, he's in the WWE Hall of Fame. He'd probably get an initial bump for a year or two after he was reinstated and maybe another when he gets in the HOF, but after that nothing. His whole appeal would be gone. Then he'd just be another face the on the autograph tour. He'd lose his sports villain status. Bonds and Clemens could try to claim it, but why. They made so much money that they can do what they want now. Rose didn't play in that era. He may need to keep working his image as long as he can.</div>
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So Rob Manfred has an interesting choice to make. He could leave things the way they are. Rose broke an established rule and agreed to the punishment, Manfred doesn't have to do anything. But doing nothing leaves baseball in the position of looking like a hypocrite for punishing one type of transgression while leaving the other in a sort of limbo. Or he could really punish Rose be reinstating him and watching his revenue streams dry up. I'm not suggesting that's the right thing to do, but Manfred would look like the 'Great Forgiver' for letting Rose back in baseball while still finding a way to twist the knife quietly.</div>
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For the record, I think Pete Rose belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame. He's one of the greatest players who ever lived and he's ultimately no worse than a lot of other players whose plaques hang in that museum. And while actually reinstating him may do him more harm than good, I also suspect that Pete knows the score. I wouldn't doubt that he has a 3rd act up his sleeve, People have been counting him out for as long as he been able to tie his shoes. You don't get the nickname 'Charlie Hustle' because you sit around on your ass all day.</div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-31339286113077385592015-03-25T12:01:00.000-07:002015-03-25T12:01:09.937-07:00The Great Fantasy Tank<h2>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span></div>
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"But Skip, I'm done"<br />
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of emails touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. </i><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><b>Josh</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">I had this thought about tanking in fantasy sports like the Buffalo Sabres are doing now. They and the Arizona Coyotes are both tanking and they play each other twice within the next week. it's like the reverse Stanley Cup. The Connor McDavid bowl. Like, if you knew Mike Trout was going back in the pool in a keeper league you were having a bad season, would you purposely sell off assets to get the top pick? That only works in snake drafts. I suppose in auction you'd just have to free up a lot of salary. And would it be worth it? Would other owners take a moral high ground about it? </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><b>Uncle Bones</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">To tank or not tank, that is the question.</span><br />
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On a real, professional level its a debate with no easy answer. Everyone wants to root for a winner and tanking is a strategy directly in conflict with that. But when the Indianapolis Colts threw a season away with Curtis Painter at QB they were rewarded with Andrew Luck and a prompt return to the status of perennial playoff team. On the surface (and as a Bills fan) it seems like an obvious choice, but when the vast majority of professional sports teams play in publicly funded stadiums, are given generous tax breaks, and derive income from those of us who root for laundry it complicates the picture. Shouldn't each team, every year put the best team forward possible? If we are owed anything as a fan, I would think it would be promise that our favorite organizations would try to win every year. Then again, that's what the Buffalo Bills have been doing for the last 15 years and well, the results have not been so pretty. So maybe its a good idea for the long term health of an organization to raze the fields every now and then.</div>
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When it comes to fantasy sports, you don't owe nothing to nobody. You paid your league fee and if you want burn it to the ground with an eye on more fruitful days be my guest. Like you said, its probably dependent on your league format, but I can see ways to accomplish either draft formats.</div>
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In a keeper snake draft format I would probably announce my intentions to tank the moment I knew I was going to pursue that strategy. If that's in July, its a fire sale. If its in May, then I start letting assets go in calculated manor. If I look at my team during draft prep and see no way to compete (a rare, but possible situation) I'd announce it right at the draft then proceed to draft a team that has a very specific theme. Maybe I'd draft a team composed entirely of Yankees and Mets (an all out declaration of tanking). Maybe I'd draft a rainbow team of equal parts White, Black, Hispanic, & Asian players. Then again maybe I would just draft a team that ensured maximum chaos starting in the first round with middle relief and go from there. The point is, I'm not going to hide anything.</div>
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In an auction league I'd be much sneaker. If it was a season long plan, I'd head into the draft with the plan of bidding up every player that I could. If I wound up paying $45 for Wil Myers so be it. I can always just drop him later on and rebuild a team off of the waiver wire. But at that point everyone would be wondering why everyone on the waiver wire is so damned expensive and why they are stuck with the team that they have. Then at the end of the year I would keep nobody and head into the next draft with the flexibility to not be outbid. A mid year tank job would be your standard trade off the best players for cheap ones, but that's not funny or interesting.</div>
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Really, any strategy that I undertook to tank would be designed to elicit the maximum amount self-righteous condemnation possible. I would love nothing more for other members of my league to seethe and boil over in disgust in email chains. I want the other owners to be so angry with me that are openly calling for my resignation from the league, because they don't have the testicular fortitude to suggest my expulsion. </div>
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After all, I paid my league fees and maybe being the most hated owner is the kind of fantasy that I enjoy.</div>
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Every fantasy sports league needs a heel. You should take it all the way and give a pro wrestling style diatribe to open the draft, labeling people's hometowns as "stinktowns." Ultimately it would unite the league in their singular mission of not letting you win. ::Gary Oldman gravely voice:: "He's the hero the league deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So we'll hunt him, because he can take it. He's a silent hero, a watchful protector..." </div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">On a pro sports level, I can see why you'd ultimately root to tank for the long term future of the franchise, and also why that concept would make you cringe. The tank vs. non tank debate over the Buffalo Sabres has become so insufferable, I think I'd rather watch Skip Bayless and Bill O'Reilly host a book club. The old guard is steadfastly against it but able to add a nice helping of finger wagging, moralizing and old man yells at cloud-ing. The younger, analytics savvy crowd are pro tank but practically trip over themselves to point out examples where finishing low to get a high pick has worked. Their insecurity is at Rivers Cuomo on Pinkerton level, and not anywhere near as chiming. And almost as creepy. </span><br />
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I like your idea of above board tanking, but you risk the rarely employed fantasy sports trade embargo, used only for bots and players who offer you Lucas Giolito in a short term keeper league and try to sell you on "upside." These are the same people who lose at poker then complain the other players are "jackals" who "chase cards." Prospect potential in fantasy sports is sort of like rustproofing and undercoating on your car: fine buzzwords but no real practical value. I think we've all spent long nights researching prospects, wasting roster spots, hoping for the next Clayton Kershaw. More often than not, they turn out to be the next Daniel Bard. I feel there's a life lesson in there somewhere, and the sad walking away music from the Incredible Hulk should accompany it.</div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-22449666284545270542015-03-24T04:21:00.002-07:002015-03-24T08:38:34.111-07:00Draft Weekend Reax<h2>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">A Visit to the Mound</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baseball fans over-analyzing an over-analyzed game</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Son, I'm cutting you loose from my 16 team H2H Categories league</td></tr>
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<i>A Visit to the Mound is regularly updated series of email touching on a wide range of baseball subjects. Its like a podcast only in words and can be consumed in short bursts.</i><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Uncle Bones</span></b><br />
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Well Josh,</div>
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Our draft season came and went. Weeks & weeks of preparation crammed in to 72 hours of hand wringing and binge drinking.</div>
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Now that you've had a few days to digest both drafts & get in some early jabs at the waiver wire its time to really make heads or tails of this situation.</div>
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Tell me in both leagues your favorite, "I'm the smartest guy in the room" picks & your "oh crap, this could go bad quick" picks.</div>
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Please be prepared to explain your answers.</div>
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<span class="gD" email="jkruk88@gmail.com" name="Joshua Kruk" style="color: #222222; display: inline; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: top;">Josh</span></span></h3>
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<span style="color: #222222;">Ah yes. Much like Christmas, fantasy baseball draft season brings much hype, needless preparation and overall undue anxiety. And also much like Christmas, it ends in a flash and you leave saying "welp, I don't need to see that person for another 365 days." </span></div>
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To get to the <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_650564171" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-bottom-style: dashed; border-bottom-width: 1px; position: relative; top: -2px; z-index: 0;" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ" style="position: relative; top: 2px; z-index: -1;">Monday</span></span> morning draft quarterbacking (insert Peter King coffee reference here), let's start with the 12 team H2H auction points league. The most obvious "oh crap" pick comes from the events surrounding what shall now be referred to as the "Edwin Encarnacion incident." Double E is a fine player, but through spontaneously coordinated coercion and collective ruthlessness, one of our league members was bid up to $41 for a guy who could have been kept at 30, or won by reasonable people for roughly $29-33. Said member is a Blue Jays fan, so once he entered the bidding for Edwin, the rest of the league started working with with the chemistry of a grizzled group of bank robbers, donning the Reagan masks for one last score. Once the vault was blown and the dust settled, our poor friend spent $3 less than the price paid for Paul Goldschmidt on Edwin. Cut to the rest of the league walking away in slow mo, putting on sunglasses, slinging their tuxedo jackets over their shoulders and smoking cigars to the sounds of Thin Lizzy.</div>
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<span class="im">The cheer to Edwin's jeer comes at the price of tooting my own horn, but I really liked getting Anthony Descalfini for $1 late in the draft. This bid came during the phase of the draft when at least 3 members passed out with beers in hand, or were called away to watch Dinosaur Train with their future assistant managers. Descalfini has already been declared a member of the Reds rotation, and both his xFIP and the fact that opponents batted .306 on ground balls against him points to some bad luck that is due for a regression back to the mean. The Reds plucked him from Miami, the same team that sent Jacob Turner to the Cubs and Andrew Heaney packing as well. The Marlins are the used furniture store in your neighborhood that always throws a "going out of business" sale, but somehow has been in business for a decade and can afford expensive commercial time slots. <span style="color: #500050;"> </span></span></div>
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On to the 12 team H2H snake draft. Most people say once you do an auction draft, you'll never want to go back to snake. I am now one of those guys, and doing snake second in the rotation felt like ordering a beer flight that went from Heady Topper to half of a Keystone left in the cup holder in a Dodge Ram at a Foreigner concert. Yet, we still carried on. The head scratcher pick of this draft was naturally the selection of Jake Arrieta over Giancarlo Stanton AND Miguel Cabrera. Sure, we're in a keeper league and pitching was scarce. Arrieta was the best pitcher there, but to let Miggy and Stanton pass by you makes me think Phineas Gage may have had a better plan here. As for the STRONG PICK of the draft, call this a hot take if you must, but I'm going with Jayson Werth. He went in round 7, which is round 12 if you count the 5 keepers. Werth is likely going to be ready for opening day, and there's no reason to think he can't still produce in that line up. He may look like he sells baja jackets outside of burning man, but the guy can still hit. </div>
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Also of note, I am high on Mark Trumbo this year. I compared his 2013 stats to Yasiel Puig's 2014 stats using CBS' standard scoring format, and the basic production was very similar. Obviously they are different players and got there different ways, but in H2H points are all that matters. Trumbo came at $14 while Puig is priced at $28, and Trumbo offers 1B/CI eligibility. Puig is younger sure, but give me Trumbo and let me put that $14 toward filling out the rest of my roster. Do you KNOW how many Kyle Gibsons that buys? 14 Kyle Gibsons, to be exact. Remind me of this paragraph in August when Trumbo is on the bench and Puig is bat flipping his way into the hearts of Americans everywhere</div>
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I giggled pretty hard imagining 14 Kyle Gibsons. Like you could do damn near anything with that many of them. I think I would rent them out in the spring to do landscaping. Do you know how much brush 14 Kyle Gibsons could clear in 8 hours? Its a lot.<br />
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That being said, in the 2015 auction league your Kyle Gibson pick may go down as one of the best over all values. For example, I was left in a situation where paying $10 for Carlos Rodon somehow made sense. I don't regret it, but I'd much rather have 10 Kyle Gibsons running around that one Carlos Rodon. He'd barely clear any brush at all.</div>
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Beyond that there was not a lot of "value" to be found in a traditional sense. With keepers the way they were, you could not expect to pay any kind of reasonable amount for anybody since most of the "value" in the league was already kept. And while I do expect that the Edwin Encarnacion debacle will probably go into the Pantheon of Fantasy Foibles, I'm gonna lay an under the radar angle on you here:</div>
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The owner who kept Clayton Kershaw at $40 of his $110 really put himself in a pickle. He had over half of his keeper budget invested in 2 players (Altuve @ $19), and while those both seem like good values compared to what he would have paid for them in the 2015 auction, it left him with way to many holes to fill & no money to do it. His outfield of Ozuna, Rios, and Arcia is a train wreck for a 12 team 3 OF league and he's starting Buster Posey at first base!!! Posey is a fine player, but you don't spend $24 on the best catcher in the game only to put him at 1st. Its gonna be a long season and he knows it.</div>
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The live auction draft was really thrown off kilter by the announcement that this would be the final year of that scoring format. Not that any owners in the league draft with much of an eye on the future, but the general sense in the room was "eff it, I'm taking who I want". I know that's how I wound up with Mookie Betts at second base in the like 5th (10th round w/ keepers). I know it was a reach at that point in the draft and I don't care. That's how Jake Arrieta went off the board with the 2nd or 3rd pick and how Miguel Cabrera fell to me with the 4th pick.</div>
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In a way, winding up with Miggy is a nice piece of symmetry as I started the league with him on my team. Its like everything came full circle. Unfortunately, this off-season I have told every one who will listen that I think the Tigers are just about done. So what did I do? Kept Victor Martinez and drafted Miguel Cabrera as soon as I had the chance. On the one hand, if I'm wrong about the Tigers? Ballin'. But if I'm right about the Tigers, well some small consolation that's going to be.</div>
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The pick I like the most from that draft was Xander Bogaerts in the 13th (18th) round. I remember thinking 'Damnit, I would much rather have Bogaerts than Elvis Andrus'. And I took Andrus sooooo many rounds earlier. But at that point I had drank so much coffee that I thought I could stop time and go back and do it over. Turns out not so much.</div>
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One final note on the auction draft: right now its a league of haves and have-nots. Some owners managed the keepers system well, and others were totally unprepared. I think it will make for an awfully interesting season and a very active trade market.</div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-31817973266421120182015-03-13T20:41:00.001-07:002015-03-13T20:44:04.311-07:00Mike Napoli hasn't had a dream In 8 years<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Image result for mike napoli streets of boston" height="266" 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" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Well no shit, he hasn't slept</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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This is a real story and here's the proof: </div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://nesn.com/2015/03/mike-napoli-has-been-having-hilarious-dreams-since-sleep-apnea-surgery/" target="_blank">Mike Napoli Has Been Having Hilarious Dreams Since Sleep Apnea Surgery</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Open Sans, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">by: <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/user?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fnesn.com%2F2015%2F03%2Fmike-napoli-has-been-having-hilarious-dreams-since-sleep-apnea-surgery%2F&region=following&screen_name=TheRickyDoyle&tw_p=followbutton" target="_blank">Ricky Doyle</a> (Huh, a "Ricky Doyle" writing about sports in Boston. I never would'a imagined...)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Open Sans, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
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In case you couldn't be bothered to read Mr. Doyle's blurb I'll sum it up in the remaining two sentences of this paragraph. Boston Red Sox 1B Mike Napoli spent the last 8 years sleeping so poorly that he wasn't unable to dream. This offseason he had surgery correct sleep apnea and now he dreams again.</div>
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When this story peaked my interest I ran to my <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/" target="_blank">best friend</a> on the internet and found out a few things. One of those things is the fact that Mike Napoli is 6 months younger than I am. I've always sort of loosely followed his career from back when he seemed like a catcher with some offensive potential that Mike Scioscia just plain didn't like (Scioscia is particular about his catchers). He was then traded to Toronto, who promptly flipped him to Texas where he had some good seasons and then signed as a free agent with Boston. At that point catching was in the rearview mirror and Napoli became the Red Sox full time first baseman. That much I already knew, but what I also learned on my fact finding mission was how good of a hitter Mike Napoli has always been. His career OPS+ over nine years is 126. He's lost some games to being a catcher, a few injuries and work load concerns, but Napoli has been a 26% better than average hitter at a time when offense is being oppressed. The guy can hit and he's a pretty darn good defensive 1B.</div>
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The part of this story that I find the most curious has to do with our very similar ages. I more or less know what sorts of changes you go through from your 20's to your 30's. Mental, physical, mood to keep it brief. I honestly can't imagine how hard all of that would have been to go through while not sleeping at all. Without being able to shut down enough to let your brain fix itself. I cringe thinking about it. I'm sure anybody with sleep apnea knows even better, but the fact remains: you gotta sleep. </div>
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Even Napoli himself said his life was so miserable last year that he considered retiring. I don't know about you, but I've never seen a picture of the guy looking like he'd didn't enjoy his job. So it must have been bad.</div>
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As much as I'd like to write a fiction series on Mike Napoli's new dreams... (I'm leaving that one in there. Don't nobody steal it) I'm just going to keep it focused on real world implications. With Napoli entering his age 33 season we are likely seeing the end his "peak", but its certainly possible he could keep up his current pace. He's an athletic guy with a career .359 OBP who strikes out a bunch, but still manages 20 or so HR's and as many RBI's as you'll put in front of him. His BA is a lottery ticket. As long as he stays healthy, Napoli should age pretty gracefully as a ball player. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Then again, he may still have 1 or 2 "peak" years left in him. And for the first time in his career he can sleep. I've spent a considerable part of my adult years figuring out how to get a good night's sleep and once I got it, what a difference it made. At one point in my early 20's I went like 2 or 3 years without dreaming. It was hell. Now I dream, and I've never felt better or more productive. There's no reason that Napoli can't have a big time boost now he's finally able to dream about himself as a hockey player who lives at Costco and exclusively eats cereal like the rest of us sleepers.</div>
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That's why this year I'm betting on Mike Napoli. The guy can hit. He's always been able to, but he hasn't always been able to sleep in the way that improves his life. This year will be the first year in Mike Napoli's career that he's been able to dream after a game. That will mean something.</div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-44413335894012184192015-03-06T19:54:00.000-08:002015-03-06T19:54:30.983-08:00Baseball's a Helluva Drug<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img height="223" src="http://mediaassets.naplesnews.com/photo/2014/03/25/0222_NCSP_BoSox1_3689006_ver1.0_640_480.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">92? I didn't know they had D-linemen in baseball...</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /><div>
Like many Northeast baseball fans I found myself searching through the AtBat app looking for what Spring Training games might be available the first two days. Whether its this awful winter or my new obsession with Ken Giles and the Philly's bullpen I am Jonesin' for some baseball. And the strange thing is, I'm not the only one.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Take a look at some of the attendance numbers from the first Friday of Spring Training baseball:</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Grapefruit League:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Twins at Rays - 4,148</div>
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<br /></div>
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Nationals at Braves - 5,936</div>
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Yankees and Phillies - 7,365</div>
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Tigers at Mets - 7,444</div>
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Marlins at Red Sox - 9,830</div>
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<b>Cactus League:</b> </div>
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Rockies at Angels - 5,739</div>
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Giants at Rangers - 7,497</div>
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<br /></div>
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Reds at Cubs - 15,331</div>
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That's right. Over 15,000 people showed up to see Jon Lester throw 2 innings. The only "Baby Cub" to even make an appearance was Javier Baez. Unless you count Mike Olt and no one does.</div>
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<div>
Now, these might seem like meh numbers to a lot of people considering that the smallest parks in MLB hold around 37k and most parks draw at least 20k plus a night. But having spent a lot of time around a AAA team (Where many of the players who played today will wind up this season) I can tell you that crowds around and over 10k in the right sized ballpark are nothing to sneeze at. In fact you can really get a stadium rocking with those kinds of numbers and quite honestly you only get them on the weekends in the summer.</div>
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<br /></div>
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So what gives? Why are these Spring Training games so popular? It could be price. In a quick glance at ticket prices for these early games seem to be going for anywhere between $10-$40. Which might seem like a bargain at MLB prices, but exceeds anything that you would pay for a minor league game (once again where the vast majority of these players will wind up). </div>
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<br /></div>
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Another possibility might be that Spring Training is played in baseball starved areas. I might buy that reason for the Grapefruit league in Florida if the Rays and Marlins weren't already within easy driving distance (especially considering that everyone in Florida drives 105 mph everywhere). Also laying low that argument is the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 average attendance was just under 18k per home game. That tells me that central Florida (home to the Grapefruit League) isn't baseball starved, its baseball indifferent. Now I understand that there are other factors that go into the Rays' poor attendance: their field is a converted convention center, I've read its in kind of a bad location, Florida is America's armpit (just repeating what I've heard), blah, blah, blah. But way more that 18k people turned out to see MLB players for a couple of innings and then minor league players for the rest on Friday. Why can't those people turn out for the Rays who have been a highly entertaining team to watch for the better part of a decade?</div>
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And don't even get me started in the Cactus League. The Diamond Backs play in downtown Phoenix and every Cactus League team has a facility nearby. I'll admit that I don't understand the American Southwest all that well (It's hotter than Satan's ass crack & there's no water. THERE'S NO WATER), but I do know what highways look like and if any of these facilities are more than an hour away from downtown Phoenix then feel free to take to internet and label me a moron. That town ain't baseball starved. That's all I'm trying to get at. So why on Earth did 15k people show up to a Spring Training game?</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
So as I sifted through possible explanations two commonalities remained on my screen. You know what Florida and Arizona both have a lot of? Old people. And you know who really likes baseball? Yep, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-04-01/fixing-baseballs-old-people-problem-with-merchandise-highlights" target="_blank">old people</a>. Who has lots of free time to take in an afternoon baseball game on a weekday? You guessed it, old people.</div>
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It seems so obvious now. But what does it really mean? Is it like other Spring Training stats and completely meaningless? Or is there more to it?</div>
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That MLB has the oldest fan base all the 4 major sports seems sort of odd considering how baseball is probably the best suited sport for the internet age. Its perfect for Twitter because there is plenty of time between action to fire off a snarky tweet about an awkward Ryan Howard swing or 2nd guessing a managers in game decision from a thousand miles away. Baseball has also been probably one of the more discussed sports in America and more words have been published than could ever be read. It was also the first sport to truly embrace advanced metrics and the internet has been amazing at spreading that gospel.</div>
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<div>
Unfortunately, young people tend to trend as stupid. I was young once, I know. Baseball is a game that requires patience and perspective. Something that your average teenager cannot even define let alone practice. Baseball is something that you love as a child, neglect as a teen (chasing booze, drugs, & tail are WAY more fun), and rediscover as an adult. And that's OK. You can't properly appreciate watching a player mature through his career until you have lived enough life to know that nothing lasts forever.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
So numbers may tell us that the average baseball fan is trending older, but it might not be the canary in the coal mine some think it is. Games are on awfully late for children. Teenagers don't care about anything. In your 20-40's you're building a family, career, etc., but it seems like in your golden years, the game starts to make a little bit more sense. Like clockwork its there damn near every day for the better part of 8 months and its just plain fun to watch a child grow into an adult within the confines of an artificial environment. And when your forced to endure those long, harsh winters trying to rationalize to yourself why following the NFL is still OK or planning on which NBA team to follow next, you start to miss the stability that baseball provides.</div>
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<br /></div>
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My advice, just lean in to it. Enjoy being a child those first few weeks of Spring Training leading all the way up to opening day. After that its OK, if you miss some April & May games. Things start coming together in June and by July you'll know what you've got on your hands. By then you can settle in for August & September just in time for the Post Season. That's when the game really gets interesting.</div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-28518988671741377152015-02-23T07:50:00.001-08:002015-02-23T07:50:35.251-08:00YOAN!!!!!!!!!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3321594/Grandes_Ligas_PREIMA20141112_0229_32.0.0.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">As far as "Hot Takes" go this one will be the hottest.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<i>Cuba has long been America's estranged cousin. We kind of know where they are, but our only contact is some funny Facebook post that they put up every once and a while, but they never respond to any of our messages. We worry about them. We want them back in the family, but we know its going to change everything.</i><br />
<br />
<div>
News flew across the internet and the baseball world that the next "Cuban Big Thing" Yoan Moncada has signed with the Boston Red Sox. Early reports have the deal in the $30+ mil range with of course a 100% tax on the end for exceeding the allotment for foreign born players, blah, blah, blah. Bottom line is the Red Sox signed a 19 year old with a tremendous upside and a position TBD for around $60-$70mil. Not too shabby I guess, but then again not my money. So, spend away!!!</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
The sad part is that it likely marks the high water mark for the fun that has been watching the market for Cuban baseball players. The quantity of high level talent left on the island that is on the cusp of being MLB ready has to be winding down. Other players will come of course, but it won't be the same. With the impending changes in the US-Cuban relationships the whole way that MLB scouts and signs these players is going to change.</div>
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There will no longer be these mystery players with grainy game footage, private workouts, and YouTube cookouts. Gone will be the days of discounting Cuban talent because they face pitchers or hitters in their league that wouldn't make it onto a D3 school. However, there will also be no more Jose Fernandez stories of riding a rickety boat to a better life. Also gone will be the stories of players owing smugglers money after they arrive. The Cuban national team will not have worry going to international competitions and coming back with only part of their team. So it won't all be bad.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
But be sure, now is the time to enjoy the Yoan Moncada/Cuban Player hysteria while it lasts. Draft him early in all of your fantasy leagues. Be willing to not be outbid in your auctions. Never mind that he has no path to a position right now in the Red Sox organization. Forget the fact that he is likely to open at AA and probably won't get to the Majors this year in any meaningful way. This is not the time time for a level headed approach. Now is the time to react. Give in to the madness, let it bask over you as if its the first time in months that you have seen the sun, because its about to go away forever.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Also, let me know how it goes. There will be haters for this approach. There always is. But you'll be right. Its not about winning this time. Its about enjoying one last ride on the Cuban Mystery Machine...</div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-49657800916451262022015-02-19T19:55:00.000-08:002015-02-20T11:09:06.926-08:00Cracking The Preller Code<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www.corusent.com/Home/images/ImageLibrary/RealImage/2010/2/42008097-37f5-4249-ab91-a85eb2537cd3.jpg" height="262" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">People forget how strong Willy Wonka's 1970 off season really was</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br>Not every crazy person is a genius, but every genius started out being thought of as crazy. Its the burden of seeing the world in a different way. When you see things that other people don't, they question you instead of questioning themselves first.<div><br></div><div>This idea plays out in sports all the time. No one thought much of Bill Belichick until suddenly he was a coaching genius. Billy Beane's own people questioned his competency until he created a perennial winner with a payroll the size of a midsized school district. This MLB off season alone has brought into question the operating practices of San Diego's own Mad Hatter AJ Preller.</div><div><br>
<div>But I think I've cracked the code. I figured out exactly what AJ Preller is up to out in San Diego. It took a while, but I'm on to him. And now I'm going to share his secrets with all of you.</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
First, lets take a look some the more notable Padres' off season acquisitions:</div><div><br></div>
<div>
12/5 - Signed Clint Barmes</div>
<div>
12/18 - Traded for Matt Kemp & Tim Federowicz</div>
<div>
12/18 - Traded for Derek Norris</div>
<div>
12/19 - Traded for Wil Myers & Ryan Hanigan</div>
<div>
12/19 - Traded for Justin Upton</div>
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12/20 - Traded Hanigan for Will Middlebrooks</div>
<div>
2/11 - Signed James Shields</div>
<div>
Padres also acquired a slew of Relief Pitchers in there too, but I'm not going to get too deep into them right now.</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
Now for the Padres' projected pitching rotation:</div>
<div>
1. James Shields (RHP)</div>
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2. Andrew Cashner (RHP)</div>
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3. Tyson Ross (RHP)</div>
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4. Ian Kennedy (RHP)</div>
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5. Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP)</div>
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Depth: Robbie Erlin (LHP), Brandon Morrow (RHP), Casey Kelley (RHP) Josh Johnson (RHP), Cory Luebke (LHP)</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
That's a fairly impressive 1-10 of starting pitchers. The top seven on that list should be good to go on Opening Day with Johnson & Luebke still working their way back from TJ surgery, but could line-up nicely in case depth is needed (I'm looking at you Cashner). Kudos to Preller for recognizing the age-old baseball tenet that you can never have enough pitching. The Padres could be capable of replacing their entire rotation if needed.</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
The other thing I notice about that group of starting pitchers is that its awfully right-handed. You'd think considering Petco Park's reputation of being notoriously difficult on right handed power that a GM might want a rotation with at least a couple of lefties. Why not let left field do its thing crushing power & focus on keeping down left-handed hitters? It should be noted that Erlin, Despaigne & Kelley are probably in a competition for that 5th spot, but there were LHP options out there this off season in Lester & Hamels (could still still happen, but it feels unlikely right now). Also, given Preller's ability to wheel & deal he probably could have brought in at least one other lefty, but no. What the Padres have is a very right-handed rotation. Why?</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
Let's look the Padres' projected Opening Day lineup for some more clues:</div>
<div>
(This is open to a lot of conjecture, but barring a trade or injury these players will be hitting somewhere in the lineup)</div>
<div>
1. Amarista(L)/Barmes(R)</div>
<div>
2. Wil Myers (R)</div>
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3. Justin Upton (R)</div>
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4. Matt Kemp (R)</div>
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5. Jed Gyorko (R)</div>
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6. Norris(R)/Federowicz(R)</div>
<div>
7. Yonder Alonso (L)</div>
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8. Middlebrooks(R)/Solarte(R)</div>
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9. Pitcher</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
Notice anything about that lineup?</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
Seems awfully right handed heavy for a team that plays in a difficult park for right handed hitters doesn't it? On top of that, the only left-handed hitters on this team are holdovers <b>and</b> Preller sent away the Padres' best left handed hitter in Seth Smith (OPS+ of 135 in 521 AB's in 2014). That leaves Will Venable as the only other left handed option off the bench and even after a pretty decent 2012 & 2013 he is the definition of "Replace-Level Player".</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
Since its inception in 2004 Petco Park has consistently been one of the worst Home Run parks in all of baseball. In fact, Petco has ranked dead last just about as many times as it has ranked anywhere in the teens and never once above 15th. Home Runs aren't the end all be all for a park's offensive potential but it does tell us how many balls are hit where no one can catch them.</div>
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<br></div>
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A big part of Petco's offense killing nature is the shear size of the park. When the park opened the outfield walls were well over 400 ft in both alleys with the right field foul pole sitting at 375 ft. In 2013 the walls were brought in almost 10 ft all the way around and the visitors' bullpen was moved from foul territory to beyond the outfield wall reducing the playing field size by about 30%. Its hard to say exactly what the effect has been on scoring at Petco since 3 years is a small sample size and the 2014 Padres were one of the worst hitting teams of all time.</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
Take a look at this graphic comparing Petco to the other parks of the NL West:</div><div><br></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://media.utsandiego.com/img/photos/2013/03/31/compare_2_t940.png" height="165" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">http://www.utsandiego.com/interactives/fence/</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br></div><div>
You'll notice that Petco is not dramatically bigger than the other parks in the Padres' division. Actually, a case could be made that its smaller than the other parks, especially in left field. Of those 4 other parks AT&T & Dodger Stadium are also considered pitchers parks while Chase & Coors are renowned for their offense.<br>
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<br></div>
<div>
What then accounts for that difference? Location and climate. If you are standing at home plate at Petco Park you will be facing directly North which puts left field slightly to your NorthWest. </div>
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<br></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www.rafaelstudio.com/site%20images/PETCO-PARK.jpg" height="186" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a class="_ZR irc_hol" data-href="http://www.rafaelstudio.com/Downtown_San_Diego_Aerial_Photos/petco%20park%20aerial%20photo.htm" data-ved="0CAYQjB0" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAYQjB0&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rafaelstudio.com%2FDowntown_San_Diego_Aerial_Photos%2Fpetco%2520park%2520aerial%2520photo.htm&ei=1I7mVO_eL-iHsQSGsoLQDw&bvm=bv.86475890,d.cWc&psig=AFQjCNFkVssy0fjelpjS74ZMMU2tJ_p5kA&ust=1424482336414207" jsaction="mousedown:irc.rl;keydown:irc.rlk" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2); background-color: #f1f1f1; color: #7d7d7d; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"><span class="irc_ho" dir="ltr" style="margin-right: -2px; overflow: hidden; padding-right: 2px; text-overflow: ellipsis; unicode-bidi: -webkit-isolate;">www.rafaelstudio.com</span></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br></div>
<div>
In the map below you will see ocean currents for the entire planet, but focus in on Southern California. You'll notice that the ocean current, the warm air and by default the wind blow South down the California coast. That breeze coming from the West/NorthWest blows over the left field wall.</div>
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<br></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Figure 1. This map shows the global surface current system under average conditions for winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. Warm currents are shown as solid red arrows, and cold currents as dashed blue arrows." src="http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/images/wsci_03_img0381.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Mi-Oc/Ocean-Currents.html</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
(This is a map of winter currents, but check <a href="http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/htmlfiles/westwinddir.html">http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/htmlfiles/westwinddir.html</a> & tell me how much the wind changes year round in that part of the country. You can also check <a href="http://www.parkfactors.com/SD">http://www.parkfactors.com/SD</a> for up to date wind direction over Petco or any park.)<br>
<div>
<br>
<div>
What exactly does that all mean? Well, for one it means that a lot of home runs hit to left field (where right-handed hitters tend to hit them) get knocked back by that wind. It doesn't do left-handed hitters any favors either unless the wind can take a fly ball into the right field corner where the outfield wall slants in dramatically. It could also mean that line drive hitters with who work the gaps well could find a nice level of success at Petco.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br></div>
<div>
As I mentioned above, there have been some changes to Petco Park in recent years. Most notably the outfield fences were brought in and the visitors bullpen was moved out of foul territory to behind the outfield wall. This year the Padres are putting in a brand new Jumbotron right out there in left field. Look at the before and after pictures and you tell me which board you think will do a better job of protecting line drives and fly balls from the wind.</div>
<div>
<br></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www.ballparkratings.com/uploads/photos/2564af7b008bdd2be49cb323b33f0999.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Before - <a class="_ZR irc_hol" data-ved="0CAYQjB0" href="http://www.ballparkratings.com/viewpark/n/Petco_Park/f/Functionality" jsaction="mousedown:irc.rl;keydown:irc.rlk" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2); background-color: #f1f1f1; color: #7d7d7d; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"><span class="irc_ho" dir="ltr" style="margin-right: -2px; overflow: hidden; padding-right: 2px; text-overflow: ellipsis; unicode-bidi: -webkit-isolate;">www.ballparkratings.com</span></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://padrespublic.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/petco1280_0cxd9mlv_5neb3x28.jpg" height="225" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">After - <a class="_ZR irc_hol" data-ved="0CAYQjB0" href="http://padrespublic.com/ghost-of-ray-kroc/new-hd-scoreboard-finally-coming-to-petco-park/" jsaction="mousedown:irc.rl;keydown:irc.rlk" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2); background-color: #f1f1f1; color: #7d7d7d; cursor: pointer; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"><span class="irc_ho" dir="ltr" style="margin-right: -2px; overflow: hidden; padding-right: 2px; text-overflow: ellipsis; unicode-bidi: -webkit-isolate;">padrespublic.com</span></a></td></tr>
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<div>
Now we can't be positive what sort of effect this will have on balls hit to left field, but I bet AJ Preller knows. I mean the man set out and learned Spanish so that he would be better at his job. (Learning Spanish would make me a lot better at my day job, but I decided to start a baseball blog instead.) He has to have some idea that this new scoreboard will provide some degree of protection to right handed hitters. Why else would he acquire so many right-handed hitters and roll with a likely all right-handed rotation. He has some prediction about the effect it will have.</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
Its also worth examining the right-handed hitters that Preller actually landed. For the sake of keeping this reasonable, I'll just look at the big 3.</div>
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<br></div>
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<b>Wil Myers</b></div>
<div>
<br></div>
<div>
Its hard to say exactly what the Padres will get out of Myers. Two years ago he was the highest regarded prospect in all of baseball. Last year he was a bust, then he got hurt and he was a super bust. Myers might have a bad attitude, but he might just be a super talented 24 year who is still figuring it out.<br>
<br>
Check out Wil Myers's spray chart 2013-2014 of hit types courtesy of <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a>:<br>
<br>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6Ynn98E1cokCxdvVCNaq5rGbb9bC7qSL6I8wWDjTWlP00mqlrlI5WXB8Gn-uCACSrfhVTo4Vv2ZH9YrfW3LKhUQw_lztF2iqBM60IhqpRbXEKUKOpjLCmN3ib2tiJLG9-qzt_P6oZWVM/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6Ynn98E1cokCxdvVCNaq5rGbb9bC7qSL6I8wWDjTWlP00mqlrlI5WXB8Gn-uCACSrfhVTo4Vv2ZH9YrfW3LKhUQw_lztF2iqBM60IhqpRbXEKUKOpjLCmN3ib2tiJLG9-qzt_P6oZWVM/s1600/chart.png" height="400" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br>Granted its a small sample size, but I see a hitter who uses the entire field, has power all over, and takes advantage of both foul lines. Of all the Padres' new players Myers probably has the greatest variance of possible outcomes. What is definitely in the Padres' favor is that Myers doesn't start with arbitration until 2017 and will not hit free agency until 2020. The Padres can easily cut ties if things don't work out or they will have a highly productive and highly affordable player for the next 5 years.</div>
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<br></div>
<div>
<b>Matt Kemp</b></div>
<div>
<br></div>
<div>
We pretty much know the story on Matt Kemp. When he is happy and healthy he is an extremely productive hitter. We know he's got bad hips, but Mike Napoli's got bad hips and it doesn't seem to slow him down any. Kemp base stealing days are likely long gone, but I don't think the Padre's acquired him thinking that he'd be swiping 30+ bags a year.</div>
<div>
<br></div>
<div>
So <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a>, what does Matt Kemp's 2012-2014 spray chart look like for hit types?</div>
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<br></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWbbP2EihKASnQtEG0q9XGTCuVietsK8bicNJ1Tf-P4-pE76Dvs-pjAJwTJzdM7PKm9DOuIkj48sEoQFZATC_n7jvO3jL9mdRS2sfjj-Ag3X5zVK2hTrR9esHJZ1pgcaJpR5hRuyurEzA/s1600/mattkemp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWbbP2EihKASnQtEG0q9XGTCuVietsK8bicNJ1Tf-P4-pE76Dvs-pjAJwTJzdM7PKm9DOuIkj48sEoQFZATC_n7jvO3jL9mdRS2sfjj-Ag3X5zVK2hTrR9esHJZ1pgcaJpR5hRuyurEzA/s1600/mattkemp.png" height="400" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table><br></div><div>
Once again I see a player with power to all fields with some gap doubles mixed in there. I also see a lot of doubles down the left field line which considering their distance tells me that the wind shouldn't have too dramatic of an effect on them anyway. Kemp also has quite a bit of experience in Petco Park having spent his entire career in the NL West.<br>
<br>
Check out this piece by Tony Blengino at <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a> (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/matt-kemp-goes-to-petco/" target="_blank">Matt Kemp and the Petco Problem</a>) if you want a more in depth analysis. Mr. Blengino does not offer a particularly glowing preview of Kemp at Petco, but he does offer that Kemp will likely remain good for 20+ HR seasons (assuming health) through the end of his contract. Since the Padres are only on the hook for 5yrs/$75mil to a 30 year old outfielder it should be a deal that as long as Kemp remains somewhat healthy should be a decent value. Its entirely possible that a 20 HR season from a right-handed hitter might being going for $25mil/year by 2019...<br>
<br>
<b>Justin Upton</b><br>
<b><br></b>
Justin Upton in an interesting case. Upton is going into his age 27 season (peak for hitters) in a contract year. He's been a fairly consistent player throughout his young career who has remained healthy and has posted a career 121 OPS+ which could certainly increase in the next few years. He doesn't steal bases nearly as much with the Braves as he did with the Dbacks, but there are multiple factors that could have gone into that. Regardless, its probably more reasonable to expect that Upton's SB numbers will be closer to his Braves years than his Dbacks' while he is with the Padres.<br>
<br>
And <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a>, lets see Justin Upton's spray chart for hit types 2012-2014 one more time for the people in the back!!!<br>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwdMO4e_rg6qPeXi4x_y_eQtUmnCFOlXzTOcrt4PAG0R24Hp-AhS3VPhmwnE4kGvfxKkSEkLvKVGx5klem9HgsTA5Yc2xn5kSfylo6O9n5_6GvWNWXQ2HnE2RX8ZqQu3mGyY2yh2Dn7NA/s1600/justinupton.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwdMO4e_rg6qPeXi4x_y_eQtUmnCFOlXzTOcrt4PAG0R24Hp-AhS3VPhmwnE4kGvfxKkSEkLvKVGx5klem9HgsTA5Yc2xn5kSfylo6O9n5_6GvWNWXQ2HnE2RX8ZqQu3mGyY2yh2Dn7NA/s1600/justinupton.png" height="400" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/">fangraphs.com</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br>
Call me crazy, but Upton's chart looks a lot like what Wil Myers' chart would look like if he had more at bats. Uses the entire field, power all over, and works the lines pretty well. Upton probably has a little more pull to left than Myers, but he also hits quite a few balls right at where that new left field score board will be blocking the wind. I'd also imagine that Upton heads into this year pretty motivated considering that a big year will net him a mega, mega contract as he will be one of the rarest commodities to hit the free agent market, a power hitting righty in his prime.<br>
<br>
Now it's possible that its just a happy coincidence that the Padres brought in a bunch of right-handed hitters at the same time that a giant Jumbotron went up in left field. I suppose it's also possible that Preller is just some kind of deranged fan boy who went out and picked up his favorite players because they're "gamers". Hell, its even possible that Preller just acquired all the hitters that were available & gave no thought as to whether they were right-handed or left-handed. Personally, I'd put my money on the Padres having a plan here that no one else saw coming. That might make them crazy now, but time will tell if was really genius.</div>
</div>Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-2296448859383856812015-02-16T19:24:00.000-08:002015-02-16T19:24:57.995-08:00Reconciling The Closer<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Image result for john franco" 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" 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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">John Franco "The Closer"</td></tr>
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<i>If you are the kind of Fantasy Baseball owner who believes that Roto is the only way to go and that H2H players should just stick with Fantasy Football, this post is not for you. You're still welcome to read it and I hope that you do. You may even find some parts with which you agree. However, its written from a very H2H point of view. So, if you're mature enough to handle it without getting all judgmental join us for the ride. Otherwise, come on back a little later...</i><br />
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I had a friend in college that we nicknamed "The Closer". One of the reasons he drew that name was because he mistakenly aligned himself with a blood thirsty pack of hyaenas who got worked into a frenzy over the smallest hint of weakness. Oh, and also he routinely blew sure things.<br />
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Just about every "Closer" story went down the same way. Whether it was a food or beer run or late night with a particularly soused trollop, each time "The Closer" came into the picture he managed to mangle even the surest of things. What's worse is that he would cop to things he didn't even have to just to further cement the validity of the nickname. It got to point where it just made no sense at all.</div>
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Counting on "The Closer" to come through in any sort of way felt like watching a Sunday Night Baseball game when you're up by 1.5 pts in Head to Head and the only active player left in the match-up is <i>your closer</i>. You're just sitting there helplessly rooting against a narrow set of possible outcomes because you don't want to have to watch your guy go out there and do his job because if he fails you fail. And God forbid they trot him out without their even being in opportunity for a Save. Only bad things will happen.<br />
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Tell me how many other positions in all of fantasy sports are like this? None. No other position can swing from +8pts to -8pts in the course of one single play. Only the Closer can do that. Even the Kicker, the Goddamn dumbest position in Fantasy Football can't do that. Kicker misses a 21 yard kick down by 2 as time expires? Meh, no points for you. Better luck next time champ. But if a closer misses his spot by an inch, up by 1 with 1 on and 2 out? Buh-bye. You'd been better off his herpes flared up before the game and he was a scratch.<br />
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Take a moment to think back on your Fantasy Baseball history and try to remember a time when you were super pumped about a Closer you had on any one of you teams. Go ahead. I'll be here when your done...<br />
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Yeah, that's what I thought. Maybe you remember a time when one of your Closers had like a 45pt week, but you can't remember who it was can you? Then again, I'll bet you can tell me about the time a KRod meltdown cost you a playoff spot back in 2009. I can tell you all about how keeping Jonathan Broxton in 2010 was an absolute waste of a keeper spot, but I can't even tell you who any of my Closers were in the last 3 Fantasy Baseball seasons.<br />
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Those are some of the day to day problems with Closers. The other issue is that probably half of the teams in MLB have a closer situation that is in a perpetual state of flux. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox are remembered in part by the insane dominance of their closer Koji Uehara. Its easy to forget that Koji was signed only as a bullpen depth option that offseason and that Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, and even Junichi Tazawa got a crack at the role before injuries or ineffectiveness put the ball in Koji's hand in the 9th. Let me repeat, a team that won the World Series did so with their 4th closing option who ultimately had a stretch as dominant as any in baseball history.<br />
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So, please forgive me if I can't even be bothered to hide my seething contempt for Closers or Relief Pitchers when it comes to Fantasy Baseball (I'm sure many of them are very nice people in real life). All they ever do break your heart, get hurt, and force you to spend so much time on the waiver wire that your boss wants to know why you're always on you computer but never getting any work done. Despite all that, every season we go through the same challenge of trying to figure out which Closer we're going to curse out on a bi-monthly basis.</div>
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For me, I approach planning to fill my Relief Pitcher spot on my Fantasy Baseball team a lot like how I approach building my entire Fantasy Football team. Don't stress it, don't target certain players, and don't get caught up in the run. That Closer you reached for in your March draft might well wind up on mop up duty by May. And if you have a league that rewards Holds, then my goodness, why even bother with a Closer? Today's 8th inning guy is tomorrow's Closer and a top next week's trash heap.<br />
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The thing that probably irks my chain the most is that Relief Pitcher or Closer isn't really even all that real of a position. All infield positions are clearly delineated and assigned. The outfield in most fantasy leagues is somewhat murky, but outfielders are still outfielders. Nope, not pitchers. We have these guys we call "Starters" and usually they start baseball games, but sometimes in special playoff circumstances they come in for relief appearances. Or more often "Relief Pitchers" are called on to make spot starts. But regardless of when a pitcher enters a game, he is the only player manning that position at that time.<br />
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I guess what I'm trying to say is that pitchers are pitchers are pitchers. It shouldn't matter when they come into the game, they are still pitchers. There's no special roster spot for pinch hitters or defensive replacements. I don't have relief Second Baseman. Why should there be a special spot for "Relief Pitchers"? I know its an easy question for Roto players to answer, "Saves is a category. Starters don't get Saves". Well, nuts to you and your categories. The Save is barely even a real stat anyway.<br />
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Did you know, that the Save as a statistic is only 45 years old? That's right, the Save is younger than the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-04-01/fixing-baseballs-old-people-problem-with-merchandise-highlights" target="_blank">average baseball fan</a>. This should be an easy rallying point for all those "baseball purists" out there to get behind, but no. They get all twisted up over the DH or fear of the impending pitch clock. (Quick aside; I spend a good part of my summer around the local AAA team. I will be covering how the pitch clock affects games) Really, the Save is the bastard cousin of the Win. People are wising up the W as goofy stat that the pitcher has little control over, so the Save's day of reckoning is coming.</div>
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Until that day, we will all have to live with the Closers and Saves the way that they are. Its possible that I can learn some sort of Zen technique when watching the 9th inning of a close game that will prepare me to accept that the universe will unfold as it should and that my Closer will throw strikes only if it is meant to be. Or maybe I'll finally just put up a chicken wire cage around my television so that I don't have to explain to my wife how that bottle "accidentally" left my hand again.<br />
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-5191428834030165562015-02-12T09:04:00.000-08:002015-02-12T10:47:06.571-08:00How ARod Cheated Us All By Apologizing<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Image result for alex rodriguez" src="http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQBPIwk0DXlVeS_6AwAv9rcPTtLKtQS5oPMdNTL9cMqwCwNfW7GRw:www.sportstalkflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/N.Y.-Yankees-Alex-Rodriguez-could-find-out-how-long-he-will-be-suspended-any-day-now.jpg" height="228" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="320" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Why Alex? Why?</td></tr>
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Alex Rodriguez apologized to the New York Yankees. He apologized to Randy Levine for calling him the devil. He apologized to Joe Girardi being a distraction to the team, and he aplogized to the ghost of George Steinbrenner for sullying the Yankee name. ARod did all this while robbing all of us fans of one of the greatest commodities in all sports: a true sports villain.<br />
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The narrative of sports villainry is as old as sport itself. We are wired as humans to think in terms of us versus them. Its just the way we are. But in modern times we have satisfied this survival mechanism with our illogical love and devotion to sport and our teams. Take the scene around an Oakland Raiders game for example. That team rewrote the book on how to be bad the last few years, and yet fans still show up faithfully every Sunday in get-ups that seemingly belong onstage with GWAR. If you take a step back it doesn't look all that different from Braveheart, a fictional telling of a maybe real struggle for independence (us vs. them).<br />
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That's not the only place where we see the villain narrative in sports. It also appears the niche sports entertainment industry known as pro wrestling. Typically those narratives are pretty clear cut. You always know who the good guys and bad guys are, but in the "non-scripted" areas of sports entertainment the villain narrative can be a little blurred.<br />
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I think it was Bill Simmons who put forth the idea that this past Super Bowl was kind of unique in that most of America hated both teams. While I know why lots of people hate the Patriots (success breeds contempt), but for the Seahawks I can only figure its got something to do with how successful they are and how confident they are about it. Still it was two teams wearing the "sports villain" identity and America ate it up. Once again the Super Bowl was the most watched TV event in history (consistent with previous years trends, but still impressive). So maybe we like our villains a little more than we all want to admit.<br />
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Therein lies why I am so disappointed that Alex Rodriguez has tried to make amends with the Yankees. If ARod was really sorry for his perceived misdeeds he would have made nice along ago. Instead, like a modern day villain he tried to sue people for no reason. Once he exhausted all avenues (perhaps maybe even a <a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/p/the-rod-files.html" target="_blank">vision quest</a>) then he sat out for his time and now he wants to make nice. All he did by going that route was to neuter himself in the eyes of the Yankees and all of baseball.<br />
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I mean really, why should he even apologize now? After Brian Cashman called him fat and signed another thirdbaseman? After the Yankees tried to void has contract and don't want to pay his <b><i>contractually negotiated milestone bonuses</i></b>? After Jeter stopped returning his phone calls? (I'm assuming)<br />
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No, what ARod needed to do was to go full villain all over this thing. I have no doubt he has been busting his ass this off season to get ready to play baseball. Whatever the PED thing meant, ARod was always a physical specimen and he always worked. No one succeeds in baseball without it.<br />
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He should have put the target directly on the Yankees back. Alex knows that the Yankees are a collection of overpaid, aging vets who most people have already written off. He should have come out and said something like "I'm going put this team on my back and carry them back to October" and maybe just to jab them a little extra "I'll do what Jeter couldn't do last year". That would get all of our attention. If the "Hate Scale" on Arod is at like an 8 now, we'd be in uncharted territory after something like that. Like 25 out of 10 or something.<br />
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Alex should have come out with some more things like "Chase Headley is a great addition. We need some one to make up a little of Robinson Cano's production at second". Then maybe drop a "Maybe Cash and Joe don't want me to play, but its gonna be awfully tough when I'm hitting .350 in June as a part-time DH on a team 4 games under .500".<br />
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Then for good measure he should take Didi Gregorius under his wing. Let him know that "Everyone, the Yankees, the fans they all want you to fail. Except me. I got your back". Slowly but surely, ARod would be able to spread his evil entourage swaying one young player after another until he has gained control of the Yankees locker room.<br />
<br />
At that point he could dare Cashman, Levine and Steinbenner to cut him. To send him home due the rest of that $60 mil to collect filling his time as he sees fit. Except that they won't be able to, because ARod will be the only thing separating the Yankees from the playoffs and a third straight year without any October baseball.<br />
<br />
Oh how the baseball world would seethe. I would love to see Ken Rosenthal's bow-tie spin every time he got heated talking about ARod's resurgence. Or Dan Shaughnessy's finger wagging at the evil Alex Rodriguez. What about chattering heads on PTI or Around The Horn belly aching about how ARod is disgracing the game while mows through the record books?<br />
<br />
And he could have had all that if he hits. If he doesn't hit, well then whats it matter? The Yankees are going to cut him anyway. If he's hitting .200 in June the Yankees will DFA him and he'll be at home collecting his checks anyway. No amount of apologies, public floggings or trips to Oprah's coach will change that. If he doesn't hit he's done.<br />
<br />
In other words, Alex Rodriguez has got nothing to lose.<br />
<br />
I want so badly to route for ARod to turn the baseball world on it head and deep down so do many of you. You just can't admit it yet. Unfortunately, we probably won't get it because ARod is going to walk into the Yankee clubhouse in February tail between his legs and take his beating. Not a fitting ending for one of the greatest sports villains of our time.<br />
<br /></div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-71939808970534195082015-02-10T08:44:00.001-08:002015-02-10T08:44:50.912-08:00Because Fantasy Baseball<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fantasy is Fantasy</td></tr>
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<i>Let me start out by giving the proper amount of credit that is due for this picture. I didn't draw it, I guess the artist in the bottom right hand corner did. But my goodness. Just take a second to admire all that it happening in this masterpiece.</i></div>
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I chose this picture for my 2015 Fantasy Baseball primer because I feel like it nicely represents how I feel at the start of every season. High a top my fire breathing unicorn, a firm grip on my .50 cal Golden Eagle with its barrel is sizzling after a fierce battle and still ready for more. Then, by mid season I'm scouring the waiver wire for help like its Sunday morning back in college and I'm cannibalizing roaches because the hangover's too much to bear.<br />
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I've done prep every way you can imagine. I've done old fashioned research and I've done mock drafts and I've done tiers. More than once I even created my own "super-secret magic formula" to determine auction and draft values. I've done all this and more only to watch my careful calculations fall short when I'm beat by the league winner who calls me in May to ask if the Brewers are an American League team. (That particular league is a bit goofy, but long standing & worth the price of admission in slanderous emails alone)</div>
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That's not to say that I've never won money playing Fantasy Baseball. I have. Not as much as I'd like, but I've been good enough to play for free here and there. And I vastly prefer Fantasy Baseball to that soul-sucking roll of the dice America loves to dry-hump Fantasy Football. (Which I still do participate in, but mostly because I can send mass emails saying things that if they went public would prohibit me from running for political office)</div>
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Since predicting Fantasy Baseball is an inexact science I thought I'd take it in a different direction. Instead I'll be nominating 5 players for awards that I have entirely made up. Kind of like any of the MTV award shows, the WWE Hall of Fame or the NFL Honors. We'll reassess at some point this season when it makes sense (Because I have license to make it up as I go along, like DeflateGate).</div>
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So without further adieu:<br />
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Your 2015 MoBettaBaseball Preseason Award Nominees!!!<br />
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<b>THE JOEY VOTTO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER YOU'LL GO BIG ON WHO WILL SINGLE-HANDEDLY</b> <b>DESTROY YOUR TEAM:</b><br />
<b><br />
Miguel Cabrera - </b>Miggy has been one of the all time greats up to this point in his career, but all the warning signs are there: a weakened Tiger's lineup, mounting injuries, age 32 season, the body of a bus driver. I like Miguel Cabrera a lot, but if you go to big with him this season you are setting yourself up for disappointment.<br />
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<b>Jose Bautista - </b>Since 2010 Joey Bats has been one of the best and most consistent hitters in all of baseball. Except that in 2 of those 5 seasons he played less that 120 games. Coming off a big 2014 he could see a rise in auction price and ADP which for a player headed into his age 34 season could spell disaster.<br />
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<b>Corey Kluber</b> - I got nothing but love for Corey Kluber. I took him for $4 last year and rode him all the way to the league championship. But, he saw his innings jump by nearly 90 from 2013 to 2014 and 2 straight Cy Young worthy years while possible is awfully unlikely. I expect him to be a valuable pitcher next year, but if you get crazy for him and he winds up on the shelf for a prolonged period don't come crying to me.<br />
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<b>Anthony Rizzo - </b>People be lovin' them Anthony Rizzo this mock draft season. With the .286 BA, 32 HR, & 151 OPS+ he posted during his age 24 season in 2014 its not hard to see why. A second season like this in a Cubs lineup that features a lot of young up and coming talent and Rizzo could establish himself as a stud for years to come. However, its also possible that the Cubs lineup struggles with all of the young pieces that could find themselves in Chicago this summer, and Rizzo drives his numbers down trying to carry a team when he shouldn't have to.<br />
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<b>Troy Tulowitzki - </b>If you've ever owned Tulo in a Fantasy Baseball league then you already know. If you've never gone down that road, be my guest. Select the number one shortstop high in the draft or buy him at $30+ and see exactly what happens. Come back and let me know. Please.<br />
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<b>THE CHRIS DAVIS AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL BE SUSPENDED AT SOME POINT THIS SEASON:</b><br />
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I'm not going to get to in depth on any of these guys in this category. I have no inside information regarding how these players go about preparing to do their very difficult jobs. I also pass no judgment on athletes who do things that most of us would do in a heartbeat if it meant multi-million dollar salaries and the praise & accolades from millions of people. I just chose 5 guys who I felt like might have something to prove. No accusations. No evidence.<br />
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Melky Cabrera</b><br />
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<b>Brian Dozier</b><br />
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<b>JD Martinez</b><br />
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<b>Evan Gattis</b><br />
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<b>Jay Bruce</b><br />
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<b>THE DANNY SALAZAAR AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I WILL GET CARRIED AWAY WITH BIDDING ON DURING DRAFT DAY:</b></div>
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<b>Mookie Betts - </b>Betts flew through the Red Sox farm system like he was wearing suede in the rain. Even once he arrived in Boston he didn't look a bit out of place posting a 128 OPS+ in 213 plate appearances in his age 21 season. He's young, he's good, and he's fun to watch. Worth every penny.</div>
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<b>Kris Bryant - </b>Oh my God!!! Kris Bryant is on the Cubs!!! The 2015 Cubs will fulfill the <i>Back to the Future 2</i> proficy!!! Kris Bryant spells Chris with a K!!!</div>
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<b>Carlos Carrasco - </b>Great end of season. Tribe has a way of producing Cy Young winners. Always go go long on young pitching.</div>
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<b>Yordano Ventura - </b>Injuries and innings be damned. All I care about is a 24 year old pitcher who is coming of a 125+ ERA season in a pitchers park like Kauffman Stadium. Unfortunately, I won't be the only one.<br />
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<b>Andrew Heaney - </b>No one will see me coming here. I mean, how many guys in my league followed this offseason? Can't be that many. I'll slide in under the radar and steal Heaney. Just watch...</div>
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<b>THE BRIAN WILSON AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO'S POST-SEASON ACCOLADES/FREE AGENT HUBBUB WILL WILDLY INFLATE THEIR DRAFT VALUE:</b><br />
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<b>Andrew Miller</b> - Andrew Miller started to get some attention during the Red Sox magical 2013 season. Then he broke his leg or something. But he came back nastier than ever in 2014 and was ultimately traded to the Orioles where he was filthier than a hot tub in a rental house. His big 2014 netted him a 4 year/$36 mil contract from the Yankees to be their set-up man, closer? I don't know exactly. What I do know is that all that popularity will likely result in him being drafted way to high.</div>
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<b>Jon Lester - </b>I bought Jon Lester last year in an auction league for $7. At the time everybody told me that I over paid. Well, how do you like me now? Jon Lester would have been the World Series MVP in 2013 if David Ortiz hadn't treated the Cardinals pitchers like they called up from Williamsport. It didn't translate into a draft bump the following year, but now people are believers. Obviously, Lester was great in 2014 and after things like the "Jon Lester Watch" his projected value only figures go way up. I've already starting seeing him on a lot of top 10 SP rankings.<br />
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<b>Pablo Sandoval</b> - Just like when pitchers go to Petco Park everyone assumes their ERA will drop by a whole point and they'll become instant fantasy studs, people tend to assume that when a hitter goes to Fenway they'll channel their inner Ted Williams. In addition to that way of thinking, he is still in that prime age range 27-32 and was the best available 3b on the market this year with the attention associated with that distinction. Enough owners in your league(s) will bid on the promise and turn a blind eye to the numbers that tell us that Sandoval may have already peaked at 24. (We all have that friend who peaked at 24. Their 30's are not pretty)<br />
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<b>Eric Hosmer</b> - People have been buying Eric Hosmer's potential for years. Only year after year they wind up a pocket full of salt for their trouble. Well, he once again snuck his way back into our hearts thanks to a deep Royal playoff run which featured him hitting .351 with a .983 OPS. Its starting to look like a lot of that promise being realized for the 25 year old first baseman which will lure everyone right back in like the Seirenes.<br />
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<b>Yasmany Tomas - </b>MLB has got Cuba on the brain. Part of it is all the hubbub over the apparent market values that teams earn when they hit on these Cuban players. That means teams are ready to drop big money on players who might be near MLB ready or might just be internet trolls (There's only one way to find out). The other factor in play here is how mysterious Cuba seems to all us Americans. We know its there. Their people keep showing up in Florida on rafts. Our grandparents may have once vacationed there, but we don't know anything other than its got old cars, great cigars and a baseball league in which many of us could earn a tryout. Some people get excited for the unknown. Then again some people get excited having their bangers & mash squashed by high heels.<br />
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<b>THE EMILO BONIFACIO AWARD FOR THE PLAYER WHO WILL GET OFF TO A HOT START IN APRIL ONLY TO SINK BACK TO REPLACEMENT LEVEL IN MAY:</b><br />
<b><br />
BJ Upton</b> - No one wants BJ Upton to be bad. We all want him to be good. He could go on a tear in April carrying an otherwise destitute Braves team. Whether or not he sustains that hypothetical production determines whether he takes home the hardware in this category.<br />
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<b>Marcus Semien - </b>As of right now he is the likely starting SS for the Oakland Athletics. Billy Beane always looks crazy until he looks like a genius. Seems like a prefect storm for Semien to take off hot out the gate in the 2013 Jose Iglesias mold.<br />
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<b>Michael Bourn - </b>As a fantasy baseball commodity there is a lot not to like about Michael Bourn (I'm sure he's a perfectly fine person though). He used to be a good source of steals and average, but now he does none of that, and he bogs down an otherwise fun to watch Tribe team. It just makes too much sense that he would get off to an early season tear and trick all of us into picking him up thinking he's back.<br />
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<b>Adeiny Hechavarria - </b>Entering his age 26 season and benefiting from an improving Marlins line-up Hechavarria is poised for an early season surge. Then we'll hear a lot about how "He's figured something out" and "The pressure's off with that line-up". He also had a few hot streaks in 2014 where we started telling ourselves those very things.<br />
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<b>Emilo Bonifacio</b> - There's a reason this award is named after him. EMILO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br />
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<b>THE EDWIN JACKSON AWARD FOR VETERAN PLAYER WHO YOU'LL TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO DROP BY LATE APRIL:</b><br />
<b><br />
Carl Crawford - </b>The Craw-Daddy has always been a perplexing fantasy player. Once he was a young, promise-laden player who started to deliver. Then he got hurt & people forgot about him. And just like that he rose back to the top of fantasy outfielders en route to a big time free agent contract with Boston. Then he got hurt again & he didn't like playing in Boston. So the Red Sox were happy to ship him out west where he landed in the outfield purgatory known as Dodger Stadium. But he's gotta have one more good season in him, right?<br />
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<b>Ricky Weeks </b>- I'll be honest here: I don't know exactly what happened to Ricky Weeks. A few years ago he was a must own at 2b, but since 2012 no one will even answer his texts. Last year he did post a 124 ERA+, which was in line with his peak years of 2009-2011. The rub is that he did it in only 286 plate appearances. If someone doesn't do their homework they might look at Weeks as a potential bounce back candidate. After all he's only 32 years old.<br />
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<b>CC Sabathia</b> - CC will be drafted in a lot of leagues this year. He's as healthy as he's ever gonna be and he was just so good for so many years. He's got to have just a little left in the tank right? One more year of that good ole' Yankee Magic???<br />
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<b>Ubaldo Jimenez - </b>Why would the Orioles give so much money to this guy just last season? If its one thing that the Dan Duquette O's have shown us is that they know how to turn around a distressed asset. Well at the plate anyway. Maybe the Baltimore has a plan in place this year to reward Jimenez for good performances. Like maybe they have a chart on the wall headed towards the clubhouse with gold stickers for each strike he throws..<br />
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<b>Josh Johnson - </b>For some reason we keep getting sucked back in with Josh Johnson. There was that one season that he was healthy for the whole year and pitched really well. He's only going to be 30 this year and he's got a do-over year in San Diego with an offense that might score more than 1.1 runs per game. And now that he may have to earn his way into the rotation he's definitely my little secret (again).<br />
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<b>THE MASAHIRO TANAKA AWARD FOR PLAYER WHO WILL SEEM LIKE A REACH, BUT PLAYS LIKE A STUD UNTIL AN UNFORESEEN INJURY DERAILS HIS SEASON:</b><br />
<b><br />
Clay Buccholtz</b> - The Red Sox 2015 rotation has been poo-pooed too much this off season for Buccholtz not to break out again. He's already shown that can be one of the most dominant pitchers in all the game when he's healthy and right. Unfortunately, toddlers have the power to take away his health, and me writing this now may somehow get in his head. He's a sensitive guy.<br />
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<b>Cliff Lee - </b>There's two ways that Cliff Lee finishes the year in Philadelphia. One is that he really, just plain likes living there and vetoes any trade (if he has that power). There's some evidence to that since he chose to sign there in 2011 when he could have signed just about anywhere else for similar or better money. The other is that he gets hurt. I'm betting he comes out like the Cliff Lee of old only to suffer the kind of injury that besets 36 year old pitchers just around the time that Philly is looking to finally move him. And its probably what they deserve for not moving on as an organization earlier.<br />
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<b>Anthony Rizzo</b> - I've been hearing some chatter for Rizzo as a first round pick. Its not unreasonable considering the year he put up last year, but he is young and has only had that kind of year once. He could very well prove everyone right in April and May and then something dumb happens like a dislocated shoulder. I'm not hoping for it, but it could happen.<br />
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<b>David Wright </b>- David Wright is usually better than I remember, but I carry an unreasonable bias against putting Mets on my Fantasy Baseball teams. He usually puts up solid numbers until he gets some sort of nagging injury and Citi Field has never done him any favors. That's not to say that he wont put up some big early numbers in the midst of a gradually improving Mets lineup. Yep, Wright will put up those numbers just in time for one of those little injuries to sap what power he can muster in that warehouse of a ball park only for him to repeat his 2014: 586 PA 101 ERA+<br />
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<b>Yu Darvish - </b>No doubt about it, Darvish has been a monster since coming over from Japan 3 years ago. The thing is that many Japanese pitchers seem to hit a wall right around year 3 or 4. I don't know if its the different pitching schedule, the cultural approach, different sized ball, or the innings they put on those young arms before they let them come over here, but it has happened time and time again. If Yu is healthy he'll be the beast you know, if he's not Texas may now share the pain of sitting through a Dice-K start.<br />
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<b>THE TOMMY MEDICA AWARD FOR THE YOUNG PLAYER WHO I TAKE A FLIER ON ONLY TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ON TO DESPITE NO RESULTS:</b><br />
<b><br />
Tommy Medica-</b> Lets be real here for a second. There can be only one. I'll draft him for $1 and hold him for the entire season only to watch him get 50 ABs.<br />
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If you've made it this far then you probably know that we're not very big on fantasy analytics around here. What I am big on is hypothetical narratives for Fantasy Baseball players. Those I've got all day.<br />
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Want to see an award category added? Drop me a line and I'd be happy to do a 2nd edition. Thanks for reading and be sure to check back as I will letting readers decided my team names this year.</div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-6501772638636386042015-02-06T07:21:00.000-08:002015-02-06T07:21:54.180-08:00The ARod Files - Chapter 2Tuesday, February 18, 2014<br />
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1:30 PM<br />
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His personal cell phone never rang for anyone other than family. The number just wasn't out there, and Bud had always been responsive to communication through his MLB issued mobile. But the random calls had started coming in a few days earlier, usually 2 or 3 times a day.<br />
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It seemed to Bud that the numbers were always different, but the area code was the same, 813. Tampa Bay. He knew it from the Steinbrenner days, back when you actually had to dial a phone and not just scroll through and find a name. It was almost nostalgic in a way when Bud thought back to his nearly biweekly calls to the Yankees' Tampa Bay offices during his time as Interim-Commissioner. The calls were so frequent that Bud felt like George was just messing with him, which he probably was.<br />
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At first Bud thought it was a wrong number, but the calls just persisted. Deep down he knew picking up that call was probably a bad idea. What if it some young reporter who didn't know the rules trying to cut in line? Or worse, some crazy blogger looking to make hell. Eventually though, the curiosity was too much. Damn the consequences, Bud wanted to know who was on the other end of that phone...<br />
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"Hello?"<br />
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"Beaver" the voice on the other end said quickly, "Its Alligator."<br />
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"What?" Bud couldn't have heard that correctly.<br />
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Again "Beaver, its Alligator."<br />
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"I-I-I'm sorry" Bud had no time for whatever this was "but you have the wrong number."<br />
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As Bud pulled the phone away from his ear he could hear the voice on the other end "NO, NO, NO! WAIT, WAIT, WAIT!!!"<br />
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Bud put the phone back up to his ear "Yes?"<br />
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The voice on the other end whispered "Bud, Its me. Uhhh, Shmalex Shrod-shriguez"<br />
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"Alex!?" Selig blurted into the phone.<br />
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"Yes, SHHHH!!" the voice shot back "Last time I saw you, you said they were listening. I was using code names"<br />
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"Alex-"<br />
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"Call me Alligator" ARod interrupted.<br />
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"Alex," Selig reaffirmed "I never said anyone was listening. You said they were listening. I didn't say anything."<br />
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"Right Bud, its what you didn't say. Its better to act like we don't know any way. We don't want to blow our cover."<br />
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"What cover Alex?" There was irritation in Selig's tone.<br />
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"Perfect Bud. Like there's nothing is going on" The pause was timed so perfectly that Selig could just imagine ARod winking into the phone. "Listen, I followed the clue you gave me. And I kinda feel like I'm at a dead end here."<br />
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"Alex, I'm really not following you-"<br />
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"Bud, you told me go to Tampa and see what the Yankees wanted me to do. So I came down here and went to the headquarters. Man, its almost as if they knew I was coming. Soon as I got up on the sidewalk in front of the player's door Skip was out there with Cash, Randy, & Hal right behind him. Once I finished hugging it out with every last one of them Randy started in with something about 'How I shouldn't be here' & 'The lawyers on each side had made that very clear'. Skip just said that it wasn't anything personal, but that I had to go."<br />
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Selig tension loosed a bit.<br />
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ARod went on "Then I told them that you had sent me down here and-"<br />
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Now it was Selig's turn to interrupt "Alex. Wait a minute. I just said that-"<br />
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"Bud, don't worry I didn't blow our cover." Interrupting was kind of ARod's thing "I told them exactly what you told me to say. I just asked them want they wanted me to do. That's when Hal laid the clue on me. He told me to 'Just get lost'. He didn't have to be so rude about it, but I get it. He's trying to impress Randy, Skip, & Cash. You know, that whole Boss's son thing."<br />
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Selig sat back in shock. It was all he could do to keep the phone in his hand. 'What on Earth is going throw his head right now' he thought to himself.<br />
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ARod went on "So that's what I've been doing down here. I've just been wandering around Tampa for the last week or so. I don't know, I kinda lost track of the days. I think I read something about this once. Native Americans would go on long trips in the woods to test their man hood and stuff. What's it called... a...vision quest!. That's it!! Its like a vision quest, right Bud? You need me to wander around the woods of Tampa to find myself?. Right?"<br />
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After a moment lost, somewhere, Selig snapped back. This conversation was really happening. "Alex, where are you right now?"<br />
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"I'm at one of those phones on a pole. You know, the kind you put a quarter into and make a call. Its like a cell phone except it doesn't fit in my pocket and it doesn't have any of my numbers anywhere. I think they're new. I don't get it, but they are good for making calls that can't be traced. At least that's what this dude Andre told me. Andre says he hangs out these pole phones a lot. He says its a good way to meet people, but he's the only person I've met at any of these phones. Anyway, I left the hotel last night around 8:00 and have been wandering ever since."<br />
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Mr. Selig, the MLB brand steward kicked in "Alex, this is very important. Have a lot of people seen you wandering around?"<br />
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"Oh yeah" Alex answered "Tons of people"<br />
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Selig sunk, deflated into his chair. His right hand dug deep into the creases in his brow.<br />
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"They've been real nice mostly. A lot of them just wave and yell 'Hey ARod!' They are A LOT nicer down here than they are in New York. But its kinda hard to figure out who you are when everybody is always telling me who I am. Its like 'Who am I supposed to listen to'?"<br />
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Silence.<br />
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"Ohhh... Bud... I think I'm starting to get it. We can't go forward until I go forward. Man, I'd be so lost without you right now. You sent me on this vision quest and for that I cannot express enough thanks. You're like my North Star, just leading the way for me."<br />
<br />
"Alex, I-"<br />
<br />
"Don't worry Bud. I won't let you down. I didn't get to be the greatest player in Major League Baseball history by being a quitter. And I'm not going to quit on you. On this.<br />
<br />
I'll complete this vision quest on we'll move on to the phase 2."<br />
<br />
"Alex-"<br />
<br />
"Alligator. Call me Alligator.<br />
<br />
Alligator out."<br />
<br />
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<br />Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-82432964637512604112015-02-06T07:20:00.000-08:002015-02-06T07:20:46.212-08:00Max Scherzer, James Shields and The Buyer's Market<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Oh, uhh... hmm.</td></tr>
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Its mid January, two weeks away from the Super Bowl and the MLB Hot Stove has ground to a halt. Normally this wouldn't be much of a problem, except this year 2 of the top 3 starting pitchers available remain without teams or contracts. This sort of "closing time" shenanigans are normally reserved for the Ervin Santana's of the world and not a former Cy Young winner or a 3.50 ERA, innings machine staff leader. So lets take a look at what has happened so far to Max Scherzer and James Shields, and see if we can figure out what to expect going forward.</div>
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<b>How did we get here?</b></div>
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For Max Scherzer we need to start with the reported 6 year $150 mil or so contract offer that he turned down back in Spring Training of last year. As usual, the Detroit Tigers made a very competitive offer to one of their own. Had the Red Sox offered anything near that to Jon Lester in March of last year, they'd be no 'Cespedes for the Rest of Us' or 'Hello Mr. Rick Porcello'. All the same, its kind of hard to blame Scherzer for wanting to test free agency. Detroit was his 2nd organization so he was already used to the idea of forwarding his mail to a new city, and since Cy Young winners in their prime don't hit free agency every year Scherzer seemed a solid bet to surpass Detroit's offer. To his part, Scherzer posted a 127 ERA+ with a career high in strike-outs at 252 and innings with 220.1 in 2014. Something any team would want.</div>
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That's all well and good, but none of this has provided the seemingly near guarantee that Max's grandchildren will be able to send their kids to college by way of the Scherzer Trust. Part of the problem here is that when a player and his agent let a number like $200 mil start floating around, the market for that player's services becomes very limited. Take for example the current market setter Jon Lester. He wound up with that 6 year $150ish contract that Scherzer originally turned down and he really only had 4 potential and 2 practical suitors.</div>
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You would think that the teams in on Lester would also be in on Scherzer considering the numbers and the need, but it really hasn't turned out that way. The peripheral suitors of the Dodgers and the Giants have not been meaningfully linked to Scherzer and it makes a lot of sense. Signing a 30 year old pitcher for 6 years at $25 mil plus per year does not seem like a Andrew Friedman kind of thing to do and certainly doesn't fit into the way the Dodgers have gone about business this offseason. Similarly, that kind of signing doesn't remotely fit into the way the Giants go about building their teams, and its REAL HARD to argue with their results. The Cubs? Forget it. They already got their guy and a lot of factors went into all of that. And if the Red Sox weren't willing to go above 6yr/$140 for their 'own' guy then Scherzer at anything above that just isn't going to happen. John Henry loves his actuaries and since he signs the checks no pitcher over 30 is getting that kind of money.</div>
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Traditionally, the elephant in the room when it comes to big free agent signings has always been the New York Yankees. I'm sure that Scott Boras looked at the '14-'15 offseason and saw the Yankees as at least one of Scherzer's potential suitors. Unfortunately, for Boras, Scherzer and Scherzer's great-grandkids it hasn't panned out that way so far. Even with a rotation full of question marks, the Yankees seem to be pretty quiet on Mad Max. </div>
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The Yankees reluctance to dive in head first on Scherzer make a lot of sense when you look at the whole picture of their current situation. Their payroll heading into this season is at nearly $212 mil which is right around twice that of the MLB average and well above the current luxury tax threshold. (<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=NYA">http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=NYA</a>) And while the Yankees financial commitments fall off pretty quickly in the next few years, most of Brian Cashman's moves this offseason have been geared towards making the Yankees a younger and more flexible team (Credit where credit is due; Cashman is a very good GM). It just doesn't make a ton of sense considering the rest of the Yankees' offseason that they would get involved in another long term, high priced commitment to a player on the wrong side of 30.</div>
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While James Shields did not have an opportunity to turn down a contract as lucrative as the one Scherzer spurned, he does face a very similar situation. Early in the offseason, the talk was that once Lester signed, Shields would find a home shortly there afterwards. That never panned out as Shields's team has floated a 5yr/$100mil expectation which wouldn't seem bad for a pitcher of his pedigree if he wasn't entering his age 33 season. Few of the Scherzer suitors have been seriously linked to Shields at those kind of numbers, although a mystery team (Houston Astros???) has reportedly put a 5/$110 offer on the table. For an in depth look at the James Shields market take a look at <a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-curious-case-of-james-shields.html" target="_blank">The Curious Case of James Shields</a> post that I wrote back in December.</div>
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As if the obvious and reported on factors of the 2014-2015 offseason weren't enough to cloud the prospects of both Scherzer and Shields, there are other elements at play here that have created a very unfavorable buyer's market for these two free agents. One issue that both of these players are facing right now is the increasingly understood reality around baseball that paying a player, especially a pitcher big time money into their mid 30's rarely pans out in the best interest of the team. The Red Sox live and die by this strategy. Piggybacking off of that is general downward trend of offense that has been happening league wide. Sure, everyone wants a shutdown 'ace', but with the league average ERA having dipped below 4.00 for the first time since 1992 you don't have to shell out huge bucks for a pitcher who is just above average. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=1901&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&players=0&sort=0,d" target="_blank">(www.fangraphs.com</a>) If you have the time take a look at <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2014-pitching-leaders.shtml" target="_blank">baseball-reference.com's</a> pitching top 10s and see how many of those pitchers are either still on their rookie contracts, arbitration eligible or signed to very team friendly contracts. Also, for shits and giggles ask yourself how many of those pitchers are over 30 vs. under 30 and then drop me a comment telling me how badly you want your team to pay Scherzer or Shields $25 mil when they are 36.</div>
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But, but, but wait it gets worse! While these 2 high pedigree pitchers north of 30 are searching for the right matches, take a look at the free agent pitcher class coming in the 2015-16 offseason. First up is Johnny Cueto who is coming of a season where he threw 243.2 innings to a 160 ERA+ and 242 Ks. BTW, he will be 30 in the 2016 season. Next is Jordan Zimmerman who owns a career 120+ ERA (slightly better <i>career wise </i>than Scherzer) and will also be 30 in 2016. Similarly Doug Fister hits free agency next year with a career 120+ ERA, but will be 32 in 2016, which is eerily similar to Shields if you pretend for a second that Shields hasn't been good for 200+ innings for 8 straight years. How about David Price? 31 years old in 2016 and the owner of a career 121 ERA+ and a Cy Young, but in 2014 between 2 team he threw nearly 250 innings with 271 K's. Oh, and we can't forget about Jeff Samardzija. While his career numbers aren't all that spectacular he has thrown for over 200 innings and 200 K's the last 2 years and will be 31 in the 2016 season. In addition to these topish level 30ish pitchers the following very solid to up and coming options will also be hitting the market: Rick Porcello (27), Mike Leake (28), Mat Latos (28), Hisashi Iwakuma (35), Yovani Golardo (30), Ian Kennedy (31) and Wei-Yen Chen (30). Not to mention a few former Cy Young winners in Tim Lincecum (32) and R.A. Dickey (41) and quite possibly Zack Greinke(32). Considering the shear glut of option on the horizon, its not hard to see why teams might be reluctant to shell out $200 mil to a guy like Max Scherzer when pitchers of very similar projections are about to flood the market and drive down prices.</div>
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<b>What can we expect now?</b></div>
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The reality of this new buyer's market has to be setting in with both the Scherzer and Shields camps. What will be interesting to see is how each of these players respond to this new reality. By now you've probably heard the "Pillow Contract" talk that has surfaced around both these players, but don't buy into that idea. Shields is too old (only in baseball player terms) to be taking on a 1 year deal in hopes of re-establishing his value, while Scherzer won't be doing himself any favors by joining the free agent crowd next offseason.</div>
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So, its really going to come down to exactly what each one of these players want to get out of the remaining years of the baseball careers. You will never read a negative word here about a player who chose to take all the money he could when it was available. Baseball players have very short careers relative to the rest of us and when your skills are worth tens of millions of dollars you have every right to cash in on it while you can. But if that was really the case, then you would have to think that James Shields would have already jumped all over that 5yr/$110 that we all heard to much about. </div>
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Lets be real, both these players have been winners for much of their careers and they know the value of that. Both Scherzer and Shields are in line to make more money than they could ever spend regardless of where they wind up so why wouldn't they want to join a team that gave them the best chance to win. The contenders that we already mentioned (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, and Cubs) aren't likely to offer the kind of money both of these players are looking for. So we are left with a few other teams that could stretch to spend the money needed, but its unclear exactly how far these teams might go, Included in this group are the Blue Jays, Tigers (Scherzer's got a bit of history there), Angels (stretched pretty far already) and the Cardinals (we've all heard it, but I don't buy it). </div>
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While both of these players might be able to get close to the money they are looking for from teams like the Astros or Diamondbacks, they may be looking for more than just a paycheck. For Shields to go to a team with a consistent shot at winning he may need to look for a contact more in the 3yr/$60mil area. For Scherzer to play for a contender he could certainly land a Cliff Lee like 5yr/$125-6/$150 or slightly more to basically choose where he wants to play for the next 5-6 years. Even though both their agents want to deliver headline grabbing type of numbers, don't underestimate the value of working someplace that you enjoy. When you are already talking about making more money than you can spend in one lifetime, I would think that the value of enjoying your career would mean even more. Then again I make less money in a year than these guys make in a game so its hard to fully understand what shapes their decision making.</div>
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For the sake of pure speculation, I'll throw down a few guesses here. I still think that <a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2014/12/why-max-scherzer-will-sign-with-houston.html" target="_blank">Max Scherzer will sign with the Houston Astros</a> to the tune of about 6yrs/$165mil with options. Boras won't allow him to sign for anything less that Lester and the Astros have money to spend and are closer than people think. Shield I think will take something close to that 3yr/$60mil to play for a contender. If that's his number then the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays and even Dodgers are definitely in the picture and will provide him with the opportunity to win every year. Otherwise he can take all the money he can and go to Arizona and hate the game for the last few years of his career.</div>
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Neither of these gentlemen have easy decisions in front of them. The money they want is out there, but they certainly have to weigh the value of winning in the equation. Some guys are perfectly fine to punch the clock, collect their check and go home, but most baseball players aren't wire that way. After all, Andrew Miller went on record as saying he felt like it was his duty to get the biggest payday he could. Well, as you may have hear he turned down bigger money from the Astros to go to the Yankees. Miller knew he would make his money one way or another, but he chose the chance to win above all else. If Scherzer and Shields feel the same way then we may have a few more surprises left in the Hot Stove season.</div>
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Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-73526224840800830682015-02-04T04:06:00.000-08:002015-02-04T04:06:58.212-08:00The ARod Files - Chapter 3Friday, February 28th, 2014<br />
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6:30 PM</div>
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<i>A ceiling fan. That must be the difference between a hotel and a motel. A hotel has air-conditioning. A motel has a ceiling fan, but a vision quest takes you some strange places.</i></div>
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<i>Staring up at the fan as it spins and spins pushing the same thick Tampa air around and around I can imagine what it must have been like at the first spring training. No private rooms. No AC. No mini-fridges filled with Gatorade. Just baseball. What I wouldn't give for 'Just Baseball'.</i></div>
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<i>I had been wondering for too long. </i><i>I knew I had to get off the street. </i><i>The thin line of reality had long since blurred unrecognizable. So I walked into the first place I saw that offered rooms by the hour.</i><br />
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<i>Who even needs a room for an hour or two? Other visionquesters I imagine. Though I can't really tell. </i></div>
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<i>I only planned to be here for a night at most, but when I handed the man behind the counter the money he told me I could stay as long as I wanted. The days continued to blend into one another. Each time the room went dark I put a scratch on the wall to mark another day passed. It was my own self imposed prison.</i><br />
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<i>At one point I did step out on the walkway to see if I could tell what time it was. While I was out there a man approached me with a video camera. I assumed he wanted a picture, but he asked me if I wanted to make a hundred dollars. I'm so detached right I'm not even sure what my answer was. Its impossible to tell if he ever even gave me that hundred dollars.</i></div>
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<i>And now, as that familiar orange hue flooded room I knew it was time for the next scrawl. Without a pen, I've been keeping track of the days with a table knife I had picked up during my time on the street. Andre had turned on me and I needed to be able to protect myself.</i><br />
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<i>Ten days on the streets of Tampa had changed me. It was time to take stock of how.</i><br />
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<i>At first I tried to stay away from the Yankees, but the temptation was too great. Baseball was all I knew. Security kept me from entering the facilities through the player's entrance, but they had a clue for me. Bud must have contacted them. The security guard told me that if I wanted to enter the facility I could buy a ticket.</i><br />
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<i>For the next game I bought out the entire Walgreens Deck in right field. From there with a pair of binoculars I was able to read the catchers signs and relay them to my teammates. Right arm up for fast ball. Left arm for offspeed. Some might say that using binoculars to read signs from the outfield is "stealing" or "cheating". But I'm a team first guy. And whatever I can do to help my team win is what I do. </i><br />
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<i>Unfortunately, the Yankees didn't see it that way. Not this time. By the second inning, Skip was pointing at me from the top step of the dugout and security on me within a minute. Something about how I had to go because I was causing a disruption. I tired to explain that I was just being a good teammate, but they weren't having it.</i><br />
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<i>I left after that. And back on to the streets of Tampa. As I wandered the hours turned into days. The days started to blend into one another. There was only light and dark, light and dark. Gradually my body came in tune with nature, but even this new stage of enlightenment took its tole. I found myself in a lonely place.</i><br />
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<i>Baseball had needed me for so long, but now its like the game didn't even know me. Now I was starting to wonder if I even wanted baseball anymore. From my new plain of understanding I can see all the pieces moving and the ring of baseball had closed with me on the outside. I could continue to fight my way in, but to do so may upset the universe in ways which no one is fully prepared. </i><br />
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<i>Baseball is over for now. Its time to find find a new purpose. That's why Bud sent me here. But what is that purpose?</i><br />
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<i>Its dark now, but the humidity hasn't broken. The bed is soaked, the pillow's soaked. Its time. I don't know what to do, but I can't stay here. Its time to move. I've got nothing left in Tampa and Tampa's got nothing left for me. </i></div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3988978612323916958.post-36392607345973844342015-02-02T11:53:00.002-08:002015-02-02T12:00:41.652-08:00Which Team Will Be 2015's Kansas City Royals<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img height="264" src="https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQEAYwXdW13ie9S1yh8_rc7OfAYqOUL09jb9ZE_LNe04hFcomGF0w" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Small wonder those timely hits were so hard to come by</td></tr>
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By now we all know the story of the 2014 Kansas City Royals. A Wild Card entrant who tore threw the American League bracket on their way to one of the most exciting World Series in recent memory. And while the Royals ultimately fell short, they left in indelible mark on the landscape of baseball on down to even the most casual fan.</div>
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Its easy to look at the 2014 Royals and to interpret their success as a fluke. A one time thing. But as the incomparable Kevin Malone once said "The fluke is the most common fish in the sea. So if you go fishing for a fluke, you might just catch one." </div>
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Unfortunately, relegating the Royals to 'flash in the pan' status does a huge disservice to the hard work that Dayton Moore did putting that team together over a prolonged rebuilding period. Armed with a deep farm system due in large part to the aforementioned rebuilding, the Royals had a young, affordable line-up full of home grown talent. They also sent valuable players packing when the timing seemed right (Zack Grienke, Wil Myers, etc.) and the return they recieved helped cement their already developing core.</div>
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I do expect the Royals to be a very competitive team again this year, but to expect the same type of playoff success would be unreasonable and unfair. It can be done, but I just wouldn't count on it. So lets take a lot at what teams might fit into the 2014 Kansas City Royals mold and make some early February predictions.</div>
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<b>San Diego Padres</b></div>
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The Padres should be right at the top of the list of surprise teams, except they won't necessarily surprise anyone this season since they largely stole the first half of the hot stove season. AJ Preller made some big time moves bringing in Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Will Middlebrooks (meh), Derek Norris, and Tim Federowicz. While all these guys have their perceived warts in one way or another its awfully hard to argue that the Padres aren't a better team today than they were this time last year. Preller also did all this without terribly dismantling the Padres pitching staff or completely stripping their minor league system bare. </div>
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While both the Royals and the Padres have undergone an extensive rebuilding process that is more or less where the comparisons end. While the Royals did trade away a top flight prospect (Myers) in order to gain some major league established pitchers (Sheilds, Davis) that was really the only time they did that. The Padres made 3 trades of that ilk this off-season alone without adding any starting pitching. Of course pitching was a relative strength of the Padres so that does make some sense, unless the Padres manage to pry <a href="http://mobettabaseball.blogspot.com/2015/02/aj-preller-calls-ruben-amaro.html" target="_blank">Cole Hamels away from the Phillies</a>. </div>
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Also dissimilar from the Royals, the Padres have not really been able to develop any strong positional prospects. Jed Gyorko may eventually get to Alex Gordon level, but I wouldn't stake my reputation on it. So disappointing have the Padres prospects been that they were willing to part w/ their short stop (DFA'd Everth Cabrera) and catcher (Grandal - decent, but sent packing for Matt Kemp). Meanwhile, the Royals sported such competent to above average homegrown players like Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain.</div>
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There's no magic blueprint for Royals type success. So how the Padres got to 2015 by no means excludes them from that type of run. However, I think they have too many question marks for the Padres to be 2015's team. Kemp may never be the same, who knows who Myers really is, and how will Grandal's departure affect the pitching staff to name a few. They'll be a much better team, but probably not better enough.</div>
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<b>Seattle Mariners</b></div>
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Now here is an interesting team. The Mariners have seemingly been knocking on the door now for that last few years. Much like the slow build the Royals went through leading up to 2014, the Mariners have been combining some solid prospects with outside acquisitions to put themselves into a position of respectability.</div>
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Most notable is the homegrown "Best Pitcher on the Planet" Felix Hernandez and hired gun Robinson Cano. The Mariners are also bolstered by the emerging James Paxton and Tijuan Walker to fill out thei rotation and the recently "Got Paid" Kyle Seager at the hot corner. They've got an extremely solid foundation going forward.</div>
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What's hard to know is if the Mariners have done enough to compete in the AL West. The Angels seemed to have figured out their formula to win, and the Athletics are a perennial off-season punchline who manage to prove everyone wrong every year. Texas twins Rangers and Astros both figure to be better in 2015 which will make wins out west very hard to come by. The Mariners certainly have a shot, but this may be a win the division or bust situation.</div>
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<b>Miami Marlins</b></div>
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Nobody rebuilds like the Marlins. They've almost made it an art form. How many teams can average a World Series title once every 10 years or so while also alienating the fan base roughly twice every 10 years? These guys are doing something special.</div>
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One of the reasons the Marlins have been so successful in short periods has a lot to do with their ability to identify and develop talent. Typically though the Marlins take that talent, win a little and then send those players on their way in an effort to "rebuild" acting like a small market team. I'm sorry, but since when has Miami been a small market? If the Marlins can't make money in Miami, then they are just plain doing something wrong (Oh right, they tear apart their team every couple of years and built an ugly stadium in the middle of a swamp).</div>
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Something changed this year though. The Marlins kicked off their offseason not by dealing their marquee player but by signing him to a massive contract extension. Giancarlo Stanton received possibly the largest contract in baseball history from the team that once traded Miguel Cabrera for a box of nickels. The Marlins weren't done there as they went on to add Dee Gordon (a nice compliment to an already emerging line-up) and Mat Latos (An upgrade to an already solid rotation). On paper, the Marlins look to be a fairly well rounded team with a deep well of young players. If they can hold down the fort until Jose Fernandez returns from TJ surgery as projected in early June, the Marlins could be strong contender for the NL Wild Card.</div>
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<b>Chicago White Sox</b></div>
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Sometimes we look far and wide for the next big thing when it was right underneath our noses the whole time. A team that closely matches up with 2014 Royals is their very own division mates, the 2015 White Sox. Now the White Sox where World Series Champions just 10 short years ago, but its been a long road out of hell since then.</div>
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Unlike the Royals, the White Sox never went through a full bottoming out process as they have floated right around .500 or so over the last decade. However, they have made the most out of their drafting and scouting by building a young nucleus around Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, and Alexi Ramirez (Not great, but competent as SS which is harder to find that you might think). The White Sox also went out and significantly improved their line-up by adding Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Jeff Samardzija, and David Robertson.</div>
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Also working in the White Sox favor is the general state of the AL Central. We already talked about the Royals. They'll still be tough, but its hard to predict that they will be better. The Tigers have stopped adding big time players and now appear poised to enter into a downward cycle. The Tribe may be on their way up, but its equally as likely that they are on their way down, and then there the Twins. Oh the Twins. An apparently loaded farm system that still is not ready to bear any fruit. That puts the White Sox in a prime position to rack up some wins and possibly even take down the division.</div>
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There you have it. Four teams with the possibility of taking the 2014 Royals' path to (near) playoff glory. There's probably four more teams I could add to this list, but at that point I'd be predicting success for a quarter of the league. That's just silly. If you think I'm an idiot for excluding your favorite team, I'm hardly hiding, Let me know.</div>
Uncle Boneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16089193858111048610noreply@blogger.com0