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| A Dark, Dark Place |
Red Sox fandom is a funny sort of past time. Undoing decades of the ingrained habit of constantly looking up waiting for the other shoe to drop was not made easier by the Red Sox sudden ascension into one of the most successful franchises of the century. There was the initial post-2004 bandwagon bolstered by the a general feel good story that crescendoed in 2007 with the most dominant Red Sox team pillar to post ever seen. After that the attention waned so did the team's success. 2008 ran out gas in the ALCS. 09-10 generally likable teams with too many injuries. 2011 "The Collapse"; 2012 "The Crater", followed by the 2013 team that generally defied any sort of baseball logic other than 'anything can happen'. Then in 2014 the bill came due and here we are.
Its easy for Red Sox fans to have all sorts of feelings when it comes to this organization. There has been so much success and failure in such a short period of time its hard to know what to make of the whole thing. Pile that on top of that still present feeling of impending doom, and you start to understand a little bit what its like. Everyone wants success, but when you're conditioned for failure its a little hard to know what to make of it when it arrives (Mike Tyson et al). Any one with a long standing interest in the Red Sox already understands.
I hesitate to use terms like "real fans" to describe anyone who professes any level of interest in a sport or team. Rooting for a team should be us vs. them, not us vs. us, and realistically any one who spends money a team should be considered a fan. That's what drives this whole thing anyway. To say that only "real fans" of the Red Sox are still left following the team does a disservice to the whole idea of what should be the best about sports. So let's just say that if you are following the Red Sox in 2014, you probably have a decent amount of history with the team to draw from, and you most definitely have some sort of opinion about where the team is going.
Privately, I've already talked myself into the best case scenarios for the 2015 Boston Red Sox. Its what I do every year. But I don't think any one is interested in that, plus its been done (Leave a comment below if you do want to hear my best case scenarios). So instead I think I will go the gloom and doom route predicting the worst case scenario for this team. If Dan Shaughnessy can fatten his wallet stoking the irrational fears of a team's fan base, why can't I?
Spring Training - The Seeds are Sown
Camp is one of the most competitive in recent history. The starting pitchers are all vying for the top dog role while the AAA rotation tries to impress their way into a fill-in role simultaneously and sheepishly avoiding winding up as a bullpen arm. The outfield log jam comes to ahead with proven vets like Victorino & Craig start applying pressure to Castillo & Betts whom the former feel were handed their jobs. Feeling that pressure, Castillo regresses just enough for Victorino to work his way into the starting lineup. Craig continues to scuffle while Daniel Nava is traded for bullpen depth. Everyone is saying the right things, but there is only so many times you can watch Hanley jog down a ball after he miss reads it off the 'Monster'.
April - This Team is Just Trying to Find It's Identity
The starting pitchers go and do their thing inducing plenty of groundballs and the infield looks crisp and efficient. Bogaerts seems a little stiff in the cold weather, but is hitting well enough to make up for it. Clay Buccholtz is beast while Justin Masterson looks done. 3 starts in the media is calling for him to move to the bullpen, but Farrell sticks by his guy. Sandoval struggles out of the gate to a tune of .230 on the month while Hanley is only slightly better. There are already whispers that Hanley doesn't like playing left field as much as he thought he would and its affecting him at the plate. Betts has provided a capable spark at the top of the line-up, but Pedrioa is off to a slow start. Same goes for Victorino who is complaining that his regular rest to give Castillo PT is affecting his timing. The team finishes April at .500.
May - Its Still Early
Buccholtz continues to roll and has clearly set himself atop of this staff as its ace. There are already rumblings that the Red Sox should pick up his 2016 option. Masterson has been removed from the rotation by the 2nd week of the month and replaced by Ranaudo who is more or less average. Brandon Workman is in the bullpen and seems to be in a funk since he was passed over for the starting roll. Sandoval & Ramirez pick up a little bit, but Napoli enters one of his regular slumps and Castillo has moved into the primary role over Victorino as both players are producing an equal .250/.300/.326 slash line. Betts starts to struggle in the leadoff roll as pitchers around the league start to adjust and the calls for Brock Holt to lead off start to circulate. Pedrioa has picked up his AVE and OBP a bit, but there is still a noticeable lack of power. The 2014 shift keeps eating up Ortiz, who still brings the power but struggles to keep the average above .250. Red Sox finish 2 games over .500.
June - Its Not That Early Any More
Stop me if you have heard this one before, but Buccholtz makes his 2nd start of the month and his fastball is mysteriously gone. He is absolutely shelled in his next 2 starts and promptly put on the disabled list. Clay insists that he feels fine, but the Red Sox disagree. Ranaudo and Kelly pitch around a 4.00 ERA while Miley starts to struggle as he has now gotten around the AL East once. The Boston media wants Henry Owens to replace Buccholz, but Eduardo Rodriguez is brought up. Hanley and Sandoval are hitting around .240 and Hanley looks lost in LF without any interest in finding himself. Betts continues to struggle and is moved down in the order. Holt/Victorino/Castillo share leadoff duties, but provide no consistency. Napoli gets hot and Farrell moves him up in the order behind Ortiz who is still crushing the ball right into the shift. Bogaerts is playing a mostly competent SS with occasional lapses at very poor times. Fortunately, he is one of Boston's better hitters and has moved up to 6th right behind Napoli. Media wants him in the 2 hole and Pedrioa moved, but Farrell resists. Team finishes 1 game below .500.
July - Who is This Team?
No one can figure out if the 2015 Boston Red Sox are buyers or sellers. The AL East is still within shouting distance and the Wild Card is never far. Buccholtz is still on the disabled list and talking about how he does not want to try and "figure it out" at AAA. Porcello has been decent and healthy and Miley is showing signs of turning it around. The feeling is the Ranaudo is starting to look more and more like a bullpen arm and the opinion on Joe Kelly is not much different. Eduardo Rodriguez struggles immensely with his control and is send back down in favor of Steven Wright. Red Sox seem reluctant to push Owens, Barnes, or Johnson to the big leagues just yet. Team wide the hitting perks up a little bit as the July heat sets in, but Betts has been sent down to AAA in favor of Jackie Bradley Jr. who had been tearing up at that level. JBJ steps in with his stellar defense, but cant get his average in the major leagues above .210. Boston media is haranguing Cherrington for not sending Betts to the Phillies for Cole Hammels who killing it right now for a team 10 games under .500. Other than some minor bullpen moves, the team holds pat at the trade deadline Red Sox finish 1 game above .500.
August - Canary in the Coal Mind
Buccholtz forces his way back into the rotation after 1 lackluster start at Pawtucket by threatening union action. At this point the Red Sox are willing to oblige as Steven Wright has not done much, Porcello could use some help, and Kelly, Raunado, and Miley are starting to creep well above the 4.00 ERA line as fatigue seems to set in. Clay is shelled in every start he makes as his fastball lacks any life what-so-ever and his offspeed stuff is flat. The Red Sox keep running him out there as if its personal. Hanley has gone to the DL with a 'Manny type' injury and Victorino is on his 2nd stint. Betts is back up and is showing some signs of progress, but Castillo and Holt are struggling in the leadoff spot. Despite Predioa's lack of power he is still hitting .280 & getting on base at a decent clip so Farrell moves him to the leadoff spot and moves Bogaerts to 2 hole. Napoli slumps and is moved back down in the order. Allen Craig starts seeing increased time in both LF and 1B while Bryce Brentz is filling in, but neither are providing the kind of offense the team need right now. Team finishes 5 games under .500.
September - The Wheels Come Off
There's a lot of blame to go around. With a second last place finish in the AL East on the horizon, some are starting to call for Farrell's job and openly questioning Cherrington's competency as a GM. The pitching prospects are finally up and do not seem ready. Buccholtz has been deactivated for the season and is getting the Dice-K treatment. Porcello, who has been the rock all year is taking the mound every 5th day looking more and more like he swallowed a bug. Other than Bogaerts the rest of the young guys looked so over-matched that their trade value has plummeted and there seems to be no way to rebuild this team. Hanley and Sandoval are generally considered huge FA busts and the whispers that Pedrioa might be done are getting louder and louder. On top of that Ortiz is clamoring for another extension. Red Sox finish 12 games under .500.
Please recognize that it is a very cursory glance at how a very bad season could unfold. I didn't even really touch on the bullpen because even righting this much was kind of a soul wrenching experience. If you find any typos, they're staying. Proofreading this again would be too much.
TO BE CLEAR: This is NOT what I expect for the 2015 Red Sox and I certainly DO NOT HOPE for this scenario to play out. Please considering it a 'what if', a 'think piece' if you will. Its just the way I have been conditioned to think and all the success in the world won't change it overnight, or in 10 years.
Its easy for Red Sox fans to have all sorts of feelings when it comes to this organization. There has been so much success and failure in such a short period of time its hard to know what to make of the whole thing. Pile that on top of that still present feeling of impending doom, and you start to understand a little bit what its like. Everyone wants success, but when you're conditioned for failure its a little hard to know what to make of it when it arrives (Mike Tyson et al). Any one with a long standing interest in the Red Sox already understands.
I hesitate to use terms like "real fans" to describe anyone who professes any level of interest in a sport or team. Rooting for a team should be us vs. them, not us vs. us, and realistically any one who spends money a team should be considered a fan. That's what drives this whole thing anyway. To say that only "real fans" of the Red Sox are still left following the team does a disservice to the whole idea of what should be the best about sports. So let's just say that if you are following the Red Sox in 2014, you probably have a decent amount of history with the team to draw from, and you most definitely have some sort of opinion about where the team is going.
Privately, I've already talked myself into the best case scenarios for the 2015 Boston Red Sox. Its what I do every year. But I don't think any one is interested in that, plus its been done (Leave a comment below if you do want to hear my best case scenarios). So instead I think I will go the gloom and doom route predicting the worst case scenario for this team. If Dan Shaughnessy can fatten his wallet stoking the irrational fears of a team's fan base, why can't I?
Spring Training - The Seeds are Sown
Camp is one of the most competitive in recent history. The starting pitchers are all vying for the top dog role while the AAA rotation tries to impress their way into a fill-in role simultaneously and sheepishly avoiding winding up as a bullpen arm. The outfield log jam comes to ahead with proven vets like Victorino & Craig start applying pressure to Castillo & Betts whom the former feel were handed their jobs. Feeling that pressure, Castillo regresses just enough for Victorino to work his way into the starting lineup. Craig continues to scuffle while Daniel Nava is traded for bullpen depth. Everyone is saying the right things, but there is only so many times you can watch Hanley jog down a ball after he miss reads it off the 'Monster'.
April - This Team is Just Trying to Find It's Identity
The starting pitchers go and do their thing inducing plenty of groundballs and the infield looks crisp and efficient. Bogaerts seems a little stiff in the cold weather, but is hitting well enough to make up for it. Clay Buccholtz is beast while Justin Masterson looks done. 3 starts in the media is calling for him to move to the bullpen, but Farrell sticks by his guy. Sandoval struggles out of the gate to a tune of .230 on the month while Hanley is only slightly better. There are already whispers that Hanley doesn't like playing left field as much as he thought he would and its affecting him at the plate. Betts has provided a capable spark at the top of the line-up, but Pedrioa is off to a slow start. Same goes for Victorino who is complaining that his regular rest to give Castillo PT is affecting his timing. The team finishes April at .500.
May - Its Still Early
Buccholtz continues to roll and has clearly set himself atop of this staff as its ace. There are already rumblings that the Red Sox should pick up his 2016 option. Masterson has been removed from the rotation by the 2nd week of the month and replaced by Ranaudo who is more or less average. Brandon Workman is in the bullpen and seems to be in a funk since he was passed over for the starting roll. Sandoval & Ramirez pick up a little bit, but Napoli enters one of his regular slumps and Castillo has moved into the primary role over Victorino as both players are producing an equal .250/.300/.326 slash line. Betts starts to struggle in the leadoff roll as pitchers around the league start to adjust and the calls for Brock Holt to lead off start to circulate. Pedrioa has picked up his AVE and OBP a bit, but there is still a noticeable lack of power. The 2014 shift keeps eating up Ortiz, who still brings the power but struggles to keep the average above .250. Red Sox finish 2 games over .500.
June - Its Not That Early Any More
Stop me if you have heard this one before, but Buccholtz makes his 2nd start of the month and his fastball is mysteriously gone. He is absolutely shelled in his next 2 starts and promptly put on the disabled list. Clay insists that he feels fine, but the Red Sox disagree. Ranaudo and Kelly pitch around a 4.00 ERA while Miley starts to struggle as he has now gotten around the AL East once. The Boston media wants Henry Owens to replace Buccholz, but Eduardo Rodriguez is brought up. Hanley and Sandoval are hitting around .240 and Hanley looks lost in LF without any interest in finding himself. Betts continues to struggle and is moved down in the order. Holt/Victorino/Castillo share leadoff duties, but provide no consistency. Napoli gets hot and Farrell moves him up in the order behind Ortiz who is still crushing the ball right into the shift. Bogaerts is playing a mostly competent SS with occasional lapses at very poor times. Fortunately, he is one of Boston's better hitters and has moved up to 6th right behind Napoli. Media wants him in the 2 hole and Pedrioa moved, but Farrell resists. Team finishes 1 game below .500.
July - Who is This Team?
No one can figure out if the 2015 Boston Red Sox are buyers or sellers. The AL East is still within shouting distance and the Wild Card is never far. Buccholtz is still on the disabled list and talking about how he does not want to try and "figure it out" at AAA. Porcello has been decent and healthy and Miley is showing signs of turning it around. The feeling is the Ranaudo is starting to look more and more like a bullpen arm and the opinion on Joe Kelly is not much different. Eduardo Rodriguez struggles immensely with his control and is send back down in favor of Steven Wright. Red Sox seem reluctant to push Owens, Barnes, or Johnson to the big leagues just yet. Team wide the hitting perks up a little bit as the July heat sets in, but Betts has been sent down to AAA in favor of Jackie Bradley Jr. who had been tearing up at that level. JBJ steps in with his stellar defense, but cant get his average in the major leagues above .210. Boston media is haranguing Cherrington for not sending Betts to the Phillies for Cole Hammels who killing it right now for a team 10 games under .500. Other than some minor bullpen moves, the team holds pat at the trade deadline Red Sox finish 1 game above .500.
August - Canary in the Coal Mind
Buccholtz forces his way back into the rotation after 1 lackluster start at Pawtucket by threatening union action. At this point the Red Sox are willing to oblige as Steven Wright has not done much, Porcello could use some help, and Kelly, Raunado, and Miley are starting to creep well above the 4.00 ERA line as fatigue seems to set in. Clay is shelled in every start he makes as his fastball lacks any life what-so-ever and his offspeed stuff is flat. The Red Sox keep running him out there as if its personal. Hanley has gone to the DL with a 'Manny type' injury and Victorino is on his 2nd stint. Betts is back up and is showing some signs of progress, but Castillo and Holt are struggling in the leadoff spot. Despite Predioa's lack of power he is still hitting .280 & getting on base at a decent clip so Farrell moves him to the leadoff spot and moves Bogaerts to 2 hole. Napoli slumps and is moved back down in the order. Allen Craig starts seeing increased time in both LF and 1B while Bryce Brentz is filling in, but neither are providing the kind of offense the team need right now. Team finishes 5 games under .500.
September - The Wheels Come Off
There's a lot of blame to go around. With a second last place finish in the AL East on the horizon, some are starting to call for Farrell's job and openly questioning Cherrington's competency as a GM. The pitching prospects are finally up and do not seem ready. Buccholtz has been deactivated for the season and is getting the Dice-K treatment. Porcello, who has been the rock all year is taking the mound every 5th day looking more and more like he swallowed a bug. Other than Bogaerts the rest of the young guys looked so over-matched that their trade value has plummeted and there seems to be no way to rebuild this team. Hanley and Sandoval are generally considered huge FA busts and the whispers that Pedrioa might be done are getting louder and louder. On top of that Ortiz is clamoring for another extension. Red Sox finish 12 games under .500.
Please recognize that it is a very cursory glance at how a very bad season could unfold. I didn't even really touch on the bullpen because even righting this much was kind of a soul wrenching experience. If you find any typos, they're staying. Proofreading this again would be too much.
TO BE CLEAR: This is NOT what I expect for the 2015 Red Sox and I certainly DO NOT HOPE for this scenario to play out. Please considering it a 'what if', a 'think piece' if you will. Its just the way I have been conditioned to think and all the success in the world won't change it overnight, or in 10 years.
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