The ARod Files - Chapter 3

Friday, February 28th, 2014

6:30 PM

A ceiling fan. That must be the difference between a hotel and a motel. A hotel has air-conditioning. A motel has a ceiling fan, but a vision quest takes you some strange places.

Staring up at the fan as it spins and spins pushing the same thick Tampa air around and around I can imagine what it must have been like at the first spring training. No private rooms. No AC. No mini-fridges filled with Gatorade. Just baseball. What I wouldn't give for 'Just Baseball'.

I had been wondering for too long. I knew I had to get off the street. The thin line of reality had long since blurred unrecognizable. So I walked into the first place I saw that offered rooms by the hour.

Who even needs a room for an hour or two? Other visionquesters I imagine. Though I can't really tell. 

I only planned to be here for a night at most, but when I handed the man behind the counter the money he told me I could stay as long as I wanted. The days continued to blend into one another. Each time the room went dark I put a scratch on the wall to mark another day passed. It was my own self imposed prison.

At one point I did step out on the walkway to see if I could tell what time it was. While I was out there a man approached me with a video camera. I assumed he wanted a picture, but he asked me if I wanted to make a hundred dollars. I'm so detached right I'm not even sure what my answer was. Its impossible to tell if he ever even gave me that hundred dollars.

And now, as that familiar orange hue flooded room I knew it was time for the next scrawl. Without a pen, I've been keeping track of the days with a table knife I had picked up during my time on the street. Andre had turned on me and I needed to be able to protect myself.

Ten days on the streets of Tampa had changed me. It was time to take stock of how.

At first I tried to stay away from the Yankees, but the temptation was too great. Baseball was all I knew. Security kept me from entering the facilities through the player's entrance, but they had a clue for me. Bud must have contacted them. The security guard told me that if I wanted to enter the facility I could buy a ticket.

For the next game I bought out the entire Walgreens Deck in right field. From there with a pair of binoculars I was able to read the catchers signs and relay them to my teammates. Right arm up for fast ball. Left arm for offspeed. Some might say that using binoculars to read signs from the outfield is "stealing" or "cheating". But I'm a team first guy. And whatever I can do to help my team win is what I do. 

Unfortunately, the Yankees didn't see it that way. Not this time. By the second inning, Skip was pointing at me from the top step of the dugout and security on me within a minute. Something about how I had to go because I was causing a disruption. I tired to explain that I was just being a good teammate, but they weren't having it.

I left after that. And back on to the streets of Tampa. As I wandered the hours turned into days. The days started to blend into one another. There was only light and dark, light and dark. Gradually my body came in tune with nature, but even this new stage of enlightenment took its tole. I found myself in a lonely place.

Baseball had needed me for so long, but now its like the game didn't even know me. Now I was starting to wonder if I even wanted baseball anymore. From my new plain of understanding I can see all the pieces moving and the ring of baseball had closed with me on the outside. I could continue to fight my way in, but to do so may upset the universe in ways which no one is fully prepared. 

Baseball is over for now. Its time to find find a new purpose. That's why Bud sent me here. But what is that purpose?

Its dark now, but the humidity hasn't broken. The bed is soaked, the pillow's soaked. Its time. I don't know what to do, but I can't stay here. Its time to move. I've got nothing left in Tampa and Tampa's got nothing left for me. 

Which Team Will Be 2015's Kansas City Royals

Small wonder those timely hits were so hard to come by

By now we all know the story of the 2014 Kansas City Royals. A Wild Card entrant who tore threw the American League bracket on their way to one of the most exciting World Series in recent memory. And while the Royals ultimately fell short, they left in indelible mark on the landscape of baseball on down to even the most casual fan.

Its easy to look at the 2014 Royals and to interpret their success as a fluke. A one time thing. But as the incomparable Kevin Malone once said "The fluke is the most common fish in the sea. So if you go fishing for a fluke, you might just catch one." 

Unfortunately, relegating the Royals to 'flash in the pan' status does a huge disservice to the hard work that Dayton Moore did putting that team together over a prolonged rebuilding period. Armed with a deep farm system due in large part to the aforementioned rebuilding, the Royals had a young, affordable line-up full of home grown talent. They also sent valuable players packing when the timing seemed right (Zack Grienke, Wil Myers, etc.) and the return they recieved helped cement their already developing core.

I do expect the Royals to be a very competitive team again this year, but to expect the same type of playoff success would be unreasonable and unfair. It can be done, but I just wouldn't count on it. So lets take a lot at what teams might fit into the 2014 Kansas City Royals mold and make some early February predictions.

San Diego Padres

The Padres should be right at the top of the list of surprise teams, except they won't necessarily surprise anyone this season since they largely stole the first half of the hot stove season. AJ Preller made some big time moves bringing in Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Will Middlebrooks (meh), Derek Norris, and Tim Federowicz. While all these guys have their perceived warts in one way or another its awfully hard to argue that the Padres aren't a better team today than they were this time last year. Preller also did all this without terribly dismantling the Padres pitching staff or completely stripping their minor league system bare. 

While both the Royals and the Padres have undergone an extensive rebuilding process that is more or less where the comparisons end. While the Royals did trade away a top flight prospect (Myers) in order to gain some major league established pitchers (Sheilds, Davis) that was really the only time they did that. The Padres made 3 trades of that ilk this off-season alone without adding any starting pitching. Of course pitching was a relative strength of the Padres so that does make some sense, unless the Padres manage to pry Cole Hamels away from the Phillies. 

Also dissimilar from the Royals, the Padres have not really been able to develop any strong positional prospects. Jed Gyorko may eventually get to Alex Gordon level, but I wouldn't stake my reputation on it. So disappointing have the Padres prospects been that they were willing to part w/ their short stop (DFA'd Everth Cabrera) and catcher (Grandal - decent, but sent packing for Matt Kemp). Meanwhile, the Royals sported such competent to above average homegrown players like Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain.

There's no magic blueprint for Royals type success. So how the Padres got to 2015 by no means excludes them from that type of run. However, I think they have too many question marks for the Padres to be 2015's team. Kemp may never be the same, who knows who Myers really is, and how will Grandal's departure affect the pitching staff to name a few. They'll be a much better team, but probably not better enough.

Seattle Mariners

Now here is an interesting team. The Mariners have seemingly been knocking on the door now for that last few years. Much like the slow build the Royals went through leading up to 2014, the Mariners have been combining some solid prospects with outside acquisitions to put themselves into a position of respectability.

Most notable is the homegrown "Best Pitcher on the Planet" Felix Hernandez and hired gun Robinson Cano. The Mariners are also bolstered by the emerging James Paxton and Tijuan Walker to fill out thei rotation and the recently "Got Paid" Kyle Seager at the hot corner. They've got an extremely solid foundation going forward.

What's hard to know is if the Mariners have done enough to compete in the AL West. The Angels seemed to have figured out their formula to win, and the Athletics are a perennial off-season punchline who manage to prove everyone wrong every year. Texas twins Rangers and Astros both figure to be better in 2015 which will make wins out west very hard to come by. The Mariners certainly have a shot, but this may be a win the division or bust situation.

Miami Marlins

Nobody rebuilds like the Marlins. They've almost made it an art form. How many teams can average a World Series title once every 10 years or so while also alienating the fan base roughly twice every 10 years? These guys are doing something special.

One of the reasons the Marlins have been so successful in short periods has a lot to do with their ability to identify and develop talent. Typically though the Marlins take that talent, win a little and then send those players on their way in an effort to "rebuild" acting like a small market team. I'm sorry, but since when has Miami been a small market? If the Marlins can't make money in Miami, then they are just plain doing something wrong (Oh right, they tear apart their team every couple of years and built an ugly stadium in the middle of a swamp).

Something changed this year though. The Marlins kicked off their offseason not by dealing their marquee player but by signing him to a massive contract extension. Giancarlo Stanton received possibly the largest contract in baseball history from the team that once traded Miguel Cabrera for a box of nickels. The Marlins weren't done there as they went on to add Dee Gordon (a nice compliment to an already emerging line-up) and Mat Latos (An upgrade to an already solid rotation). On paper, the Marlins look to be a fairly well rounded team with a deep well of young players. If they can hold down the fort until Jose Fernandez returns from TJ surgery as projected in early June, the Marlins could be strong contender for the NL Wild Card.

Chicago White Sox

Sometimes we look far and wide for the next big thing when it was right underneath our noses the whole time. A team that closely matches up with 2014 Royals is their very own division mates, the 2015 White Sox. Now the White Sox where World Series Champions just 10 short years ago, but its been a long road out of hell since then.

Unlike the Royals, the White Sox never went through a full bottoming out process as they have floated right around .500 or so over the last decade. However, they have made the most out of their drafting and scouting by building a young nucleus around Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, and Alexi Ramirez (Not great, but competent as SS which is harder to find that you might think). The White Sox also went out and significantly improved their line-up by adding Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Jeff Samardzija, and David Robertson.

Also working in the White Sox favor is the general state of the AL Central. We already talked about the Royals. They'll still be tough, but its hard to predict that they will be better. The Tigers have stopped adding big time players and now appear poised to enter into a downward cycle. The Tribe may be on their way up, but its equally as likely that they are on their way down, and then there the Twins. Oh the Twins. An apparently loaded farm system that still is not ready to bear any fruit. That puts the White Sox in a prime position to rack up some wins and possibly even take down the division.

There you have it. Four teams with the possibility of taking the 2014 Royals' path to (near) playoff glory. There's probably four more teams I could add to this list, but at that point I'd be predicting success for a quarter of the league. That's just silly. If you think I'm an idiot for excluding your favorite team, I'm hardly hiding, Let me know.

AJ Preller Calls Ruben Amaro

 

"Hey Ruben, Its AJ"

"Oh hey AJ. How's things going out there in San Diego?"

"Good, good. Thanks for asking. Found a lot of teams looking to make moves. Real happy to find some teams who still value prospects. I brought in 3 Major League outfielders and didn't have to give up all that much to get them. Some prospects here and there, but the system's by no means empty."

"That must be nice" Said Ruben "We've been trying to find a way to restock our system. Its been tough though."

"Well Ruben, that's kinda why I called. I was hoping that maybe we could make a deal that will help both of us out-"

"Great!" Ruben cut in "We've got all sorts of valuable pieces to move. Lot of guys who could really help any team. What's your fancy?"

"I really only had my eyes on one guy right now."

"Stop right there AJ. You don't need to say anymore. I've been taking calls all week on Ryan Howard. Well, let me tell you, I'm not just going to be giving away my best players. Ryan's a former MVP. We're talking top prospects here."

"No, no Ruben" AJ tried to stop him "I was thinking more along the the lines of-"

"Utley? You want Chase huh? Then you better come big AJ. He's my 5 time All Star. Chase is a franchise corner stone."

"Yeah, no Rube. What about-"

"Dominic Brown! You want DOMINIC BROWN!!! No sale sir. He is NOT available. Dominic Brown will be the player that leads the Phillies back to the promised land"

"Whoa Ruben. I'm set on outfielders"

"Oh you sly dog... I see what you're up to now. You want my former Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee. Pretty crafty. He's coming off a down year, but I think he's got at least 2 more Cy Youngs left in that left arm. AT LEAST 2."

"You're right about that Ruben. Cliff Lee is one hell of a pitcher, but I'm actually calling about Cole Hamels"

Silence.

AJ went on "I keep hearing that he might be available and I thought I would just check in. I mean he's from the area down here and we can always use more pitching. So what kind of return are you looking for?"

Silence.

"Ruben? Hello? Are you still there?"

"How dare you Preller."

"I'm sorry?"

"You know how how important Hamels is to me. He's the best player on this team and he's my wife's favorite player."

"Ruben, I wasn't trying to offend you or anything. I was just calling to see about his availability. If he's not available we can end this conversation right here"

"No. Wait" Ruben sighed "I'm sorry AJ. I'm just under a lot of pressure."

"So... Is Hamels available?"

" I'll tell you what AJ, make a list of your top 5 prospects. Then I want you to take that list and double it."

"Double it? What does that even mean?"

"It means Preller, that I'm down with your pretty boy antics. You young, hot-shot GM's are all the same. You try to swoop in here and make a name off of my players. Well, I'm not here so you can ride me like a ten cent pony and go back and laugh about it with your friends."

"Look, Ruben. You got it all wrong-"

"NO! You look Preller. The offer's changed. Now take that list of top 5 prospects, triple it and then shove it straight up your ass. And once you have reverse digested that list and it comes back out your mouth you call me and tell me how it tastes. You tell me how it tastes when some tries to screw you so hard that it makes you vomit out your very heart and soul. Then, maybe you'll finally understand my position. Until then we have nothing to talk about."

"Ruben, I-"

"Nothing"

Click.

The Curious Case of James Shields

James Shields in 2010 being informed his next World Series appearance would be with the Royals.

Let me start out by saying that I have almost no idea where James Shields will be playing baseball in 2015 or at what sort of price tag. What I do know is that no one else seems to really know either. But I love me some spec-u-latin', so here we go.

Here is what we do know. James Shields is a 32 year old pitcher with a career 111 ERA+ to his name. In his 9 years of Major League service Shields has gone over 200 innings every year in the last 8. He has been remarkably durable and consistent, minus a tough stretch with the Rays during the 09-10 seasons where for the only time in his career his FIP was over 4.00. The last 3 years however, Shields has posted a FIP around 3.50 while pitching for 2 different teams. He has clearly figured something out.

Also, there are those intangibles that we all simply have to take other people's word for. Like the much maligned "Big Game" James nicknamed battered about this postseason. But by most accounts Shields is a strong leader in the clubhouse and of a pitching staff. He is known as a "bulldog" out there on the mound which could mean anything from his general demeanor to that he has a hard time breathing due to a stubby nostril cavity and farts a lot because of it (his nose really isn't all that stubby, at least from pictures I have seen). Anyway, those intangibles are kinda worthless to me in trying to figure out exactly what team will pay how much to put its uniform on him.

What I do know is that there is plenty of reluctance out there to hand an about to be 33 year old pitcher a 5 year contract over a $100 mil which is the number I seem to be reading a lot recently. Most pitchers receiving contracts of that size are under the age of 30 which Shields is rapidly putting in his rear view mirror. Even if some of those under 30 pitchers do not have the same kind of track record that Shields has to his name (Homer Bailey, I'm talking about you).

One interesting comp for age and contract expectations is the deal the Phillies handed Cliff Lee in 2010. At the time we were to understand that Lee took an under market deal to go to Philly because he liked the city and the team (it is a nice city). As if a contract of 5 years at $120mil is somehow under market... but Lee was 32 at the time coming of great run with the Rangers and with a Cy Young under his belt. And for the most part Lee has lived up to his end of the deal with 3 very good years with the Phillies with 2014's injury plagued season fresh in people's minds. Lee hasn't helped the Phillies contend those years, but he sure isn't the reason why they are where they are today.

However, James Shields is not necessary Cliff Lee. Lee's career ERA+ of 118 is largely held down by his first 6 years in the league when he was slightly better than average overall, but since his Cy Young in 2008 he has been a straight beast while on a barnstorming tour of country. Shields just hasn't been THAT good. And it would seem to me if anyone one could qualify as an "ace" it would be Lee. Shields is not at that level. He's just a tick below.

So where does that leave us? It may be worthwhile to examine the potential suitors for Shields. The teams that most commonly come up are the Dodgers (in on everybody), RedSox (people believe they need more pitching), Giants (FA spurned World Series Champs), and the Yankees (so many reasons). RedSox and (new) Dodger management don't seem like the types to be paying $20+mil per year to pitchers who will eventually be 37. If he winds up with either of those teams it will be something closer to 3yrs/$70, which still seems unlikely. I don't buy the Giants paying any more than the RedSox or Dodgers, because even though they could use a guy like Shields, they sure don't need him. The Yankees? I don't know, its possibe, but if they were going to spend big on a pitcher it seems like Scherzer would be their guy. Plus don't underestimate Brian Cashman's position here. He's got a major rebuilding process ahead of him and I'm sure he's actually pretty excited for the opportunity. Paying aging pitchers lots of money won't dig the Yankees out the hole they are in and Cashman knows it.

So for the kind of money Shields is reportedly seeking we may need to look at the fringe candidates. The Texas Rangers could be a possibility, but may be a little gun shy of FA's with recent experiences with Shin Soo Choo and Prince Fielder (traded I know, but the point is there). There's no way Padres are really serious on this one. The Angel are out there, but they have a lot of financial commitments already on the books. I see the Marlins possibly getting involved, but at that price its a question. Now the Tigers might be a stealth team in this if they miss out on Scherzer. They could use some more quality, proven pitching to keep up in the AL Central and ownership is more than willing to spend when needed. 

Another team that keeps coming up for me is the Houston Astros. I know it seems crazy, but how different of a position are the Astros in now from where the Nationals were when they were willing to give Jason Werth that big money deal in 2011. A team rich in prospects that no one saw coming giving an "over market" contract to attract a big name FA. Werth has delivered and the Nats are contenders. Its an eerily similar situation. (I've got more to say about the Astros later)

If Shields wants the money and the years its probably going to come from an up and coming team who has to pay extra to attract players. If we wants to win with an established team, he may need to take fewer years, but the price per year will likely be around the same. However, the prospect of leading a rising team to the promise-land while being paid a truckload of money to do it may be just the kind of thing that gets "Big Game" James going.