Thursday, September 17, 2015

Week 2 NFL Picks

Well, that got ugly quick. Really, its what I get for getting so cocky about it. However, I did make it clear in the open that week one was the hardest week of all to pick. There's way to much random chaos out there to try to figure anything out definitively.

The good news is that you wont find me swinging from the rafters anytime soon. If anything, I am now more motivated to get this right.

Until then please enjoy this weeks entrance music:

* All regular season lines taken from*

Broncos @ Chiefs (-3.5)

I wasn't wrong last week when I claimed that Peyton Manning should have retired. He looked done against the Ravens. I just underestimated how good the Broncos D was going to be. Similarly, I may have overestimated the Texans D v. the Chiefs. I also failed to take into account that nobody is better at multiple week game planning than Andy Reid. The Chiefs are unlikely to dominate the Broncos quite like they did the Texans, but they should be able to muster enough offense to get by Zombie Peyton Manning.

Pick: Chiefs

Titans @ Browns (-1.5)

Here's two teams I totally misread. I thought year 2 of Mike Pettine would mean a hungry, motivated Browns team, not one that rolled over and played dead against the Jets of all teams. I also failed to take into account the Marcus Mariota might be actually pretty good and that Ken Wisenhunt can be successful when is QB is pretty good. I think Vegas made a huge mistake with this line and wouldn't be surprised if the Titans are 2-3 pt favorites by game time. But CBS locked it in when they did so...

Pick: Titans

Buccaneers @ Saints (-10.5)

I think my Bucs pick last week was nothing but wishful thinking. I wanted to see Jameis Winston play well, but he was so far above most of his college competition (talent wise) its going to be a major "frame of mind" adjustment for him at the pro level. The guys he's playing against are really, really good. And the guys drafting game-plans against are also really, really good. That's why they are professionals. But 10.5 pts spread in the second week of the season? This is usually at least a week 10 spread.

Pick: Bucs

Patriots @ Bills (.5)

A basically pick game against the Patriots in week 2 for the Bills? That's a lot of respect. Or a lot of misplaced love. Rex Ryan had a history of upending the Patriots early on in his tenure with the Jets, but after that? Not so much. Plus for as much pressure as Buffalo threw at Indy last week it was always with 5-6-7 rushers. That's not how you beat Tom Brady. Especially not when he has a weapon like Gronk to create nightmare matchups all over the field. If you can't bring consistent pressure against Brady with only four rushers then you can't win. The Bills front four is very, very good, but will Sexy Rexy step outside of himself and trust his players to get the job done? I'm betting no. Its that whole "White Whale" complex.

Pick: Patriots

Cardinals @ Bears (2.5)

The Bears were extremely close to covering last week and would have if not for Jay Cutler doing Jay Cutler things. The Cardinals demolished the Saints out in the desert. Its hard to tell exactly how good the Saints are going to be, but the Cardinals could well give the Seahawks a run for their money in the NFC West. If this was December I might feel differently about how the Cards would fair on the road in Chicago. But in September? They aught to be able to cover a field goal.

Pick: Cardinals

49ers @ Steelers (-6.5)

This is another curious line. The 49ers were kind of a left for dead team and they went out rolled up the Vikings in a big way, while the Steelers put up a decent fight against the Pats. But I guess the odds makers aren't sold of on the 49ers (& after 1 week that is more than fair) and are also looking for the Steelers to rebound big in their home opener. Also, I think there's some science behind West Coast teams struggling in East Coast games. Or maybe its the other way around...

Pick: 49ers

Rams @ Skins (3.5)

The NFC West may be the best division top to bottom in all of football. The Skins are terrible and they deserve to be.

Pick: Rams

Chargers @ Bengals (-3.5)

Two (of the many) teams I picked against last week. But these two in particular stand out because I used some intangibles to go against them. Like I know what's really going on with these teams. So its like my grandfather's uncle's friend's cousin used to say: "When you're lost in the woods, just go home"

Pick: Bengals

Texans @ Panthers (-3.5)

Panthers beat a bad team like they were supposed to last week while the Texans got roughed up by Andy Reid's Chiefs who had been game planning since the schedule game out in April. And now it sounds like the Texans are going with Ryan Mallet this week? So the question on this game is: Do I really believe Ryan Mallet on the road is the answer? I say no.

Pick: Panthers

Falcons @ Giants (-2.5)

Isn't it just like the Giants to lose, but to cover? I hate the Giants.

Pick: Falcons

Lions @ Vikings (-3.5)

I picked both these teams last week and both teams let me down. For all I care it can snow 10 feet in the greater Minneapolis area and the game can be moved to the home stadium of the Saskatchewan Rough Riders.

Pick: Vikings

Ravens @ Raiders (7.5)


Pick: Ravens

Dolphins @ Jaguars (6.5)


Pick: Dolphins

Cowboys @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Eagles really let me down last week, but I'm afraid that without Dez Bryant the Cowboys are a much worse team. I might be wrong about that, but like the Giants, I hate betting on the Cowboys.

Pick: Eagles

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5)

A rematch of that ridiculous NFC Championship game from last season. Packers might eek this one out, but will they do it by more than a field goal?

Pick: Seahawks

Jets @ Colts (-7.5)

Do you believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick? Because as a Bills fan, I do not.

Pick: Colts

So there they are. I know I've got a lot to prove. As always if you disagree, you know where to find me.

Season Record: 4-12

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